Joint OU/tu statement

It’s official.

Does NOT say they are leaving, but does say they are not renewing the GOR once the current agreement expires in 2025.

You can do the math.

www.newson6.com/story/60fec46d0438690bed...f-leaving-the-big-12

“The University of Oklahoma and The University of Texas at Austin notified the Big 12 Athletic Conference today that they will not be renewing their grants of media rights following expiration in 2025. Providing notice to the Big 12 at this point is important in advance of the expiration of the conference’s current media rights agreement. The universities intend to honor their existing grant of rights agreements. However, both universities will continue to monitor the rapidly evolving collegiate athletics landscape as they consider how best to position their athletics programs for the future.“

Wow. Boom goes the dynamite.

BIG TEN OR BUST!

konza63 wrote: Wow. Boom goes the dynamite.

BIG TEN OR BUST!

Yup!


"Cry 'Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war."

DocBlues wrote: If Texas and Oklahoma do depart, is maintaining the status quo and renaming the conference the "Big 8" a viable option?

It’s always an option. Whether or not it is a viable one depends on your definition of “viable”.

First the $, in extremely rough terms, excluding Tier 3 $.
With OU/tu on board each Big 12 school last year made roughly $35M per year from the media contract (-$350M total).

But much of that was attributable to OU/tu being in the package?

Last year each SEC school got $45M ($630M total). For the SEC to be considering adding OU/tu, they have to believe that each school’s “value added” for the SEC is at minimum that $45M.

If true, then let’s allot at least $90M of the current Big 12 payout to the OU/tu draw, meaning the other 8 schools brought in $260M, or roughly $$32.5M.

That’s a *minimum* $2.5M per year drop per school, ASSUMING that the remaining 8 are perceived by the media powers-that-be as still worth that without the national brands of OU/tu to entice viewers to the competitions.

Remember that it was economics that drove the creation of the Big 12 by adding the best SWC remnants to the then Big 8, and any future “Big 8” won’t have CU, NU, OU or MU in it, so the Big 8 picture is much drabber.

AND realize that OU/tu are likely NOT the last to go. WVU came to the Big 12 when they could not get into the ACC, and I’m reading that they would leave the Big 12 in a heartbeat should the ACC say “come on down!” And frankly it makes a lot more sense to me for WVU to go ACC than stay Big 12.

So there goes the only east coast toehold for the Big 12 if WVU leaves.

Of course, the Big 12/8 could add Houston to get back to 8, so the members would be-

KU
KSU
ISU
OSU

BU
TT
TCU
UH

MAYBE UH would bring more to a new Big 8 than WVU? Certainly has a larger potential viewership (Houston metro alone at 6.5M people is almost 3.5 times larger than the entire population of West Virginia at 1.9M), but how many Cougars fans are there statewide and nationwide? I don’t know.

And then again we must consider there is talk that ISU is also interested in the B1G.

In the current environment I have to believe that all the other Big 12 programs are actively but quietly examining all their options.

My opinion: assuming OU/tu are gone, if B1G offers a seat at the table, KU takes it, regardless of the many obstacles it will need to overcome. Staying Big 12/8 is staying on a deathwatch.

But will B1G, ACC and Pac-12 look to expand given the move of OU/tu to the SEC?

Again, fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

More info on the contribution of OU/tu to the Big 12 media contracts. I read an article yesterday where the author wrote that industry experts on the subject figure that OU/tu are at least 50% of the value, possibly as much as 70-75%. Should the conference manage to survive in some form after OU/tu leave, these media pros estimate the conference media rights $ (NOT counting Tier 3 deals, where KU makes a good chunk of change thanks to hoops) could drop from $35M per year per school to under $10M, comparable to the current AAC shares.

Such a precipitous decline would severely damage the athletics programs of every remaining Big 12 school.

Based on these estimates it makes it pretty clear that with OU/tu gone, every remaining Big 12 school needs to look for a place in one of the remaining P5 conferences in order to have any semblance of their current athletics programs in the future.

The writing is on the wall.

RIP, Big 12.

Solid article on CBSSports.com by Dennis Dodd.

www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/...eave-big-12-for-sec/

“Would Kansas be on the Big Ten's short list? Believe it or not, football remains the primary revenue driver at KU. Its languishing football program might be a plus in realignment. Big Ten football is strong enough to absorb a team that would be an automatic W despite it subtracting from overall schedule strength. It would be a no-brainer because Jayhawks basketball is a historically great program.”

Following up on the Dodd article where he writes KU is a “no-brainer”, this comment by a JayhawkSlant member on the reporting that is not so positive for KU’s prospects…

“Do any of these reporters have any vision at all. Just because we are down now, it doesn't mean we will be down forever. We have a quality AD/Coach for the first time in it seems decades. I fully expect KU's football program to be solid for years to come. I truly hope the administration of the Big 10 has a little more foresight than these folks.”

(Taken from this thread, for anyone who is a Slant member. )

No idea who this fellow is, but we’ll likely know if he’s right by the time you read this.

#BREAKING: On Tuesday morning, @TexasLonghorns and @UofOklahoma will formally file a letter with the @SEC requesting admission to that conference.

The SEC announcement…

To quote konza63 and EarthForce legend Lieutenant Commander Susan Ivanova: "BOOM!"

OU/tu still need 11 of 14 SEC members to say "Yes", but other than A&M and maybe mOO, I don't see anyone else saying no.

Bets being placed on when OU/tu will actually leave if invited...


LCDR Ivanova: "No boom today. Boom tomorrow. There's always a boom tomorrow. What? Look, somebody's got to have some damn perspective around here! Boom. Sooner or later. BOOM!" (Babylon 5, S1E15 "Grail")*

www.imdb.com/title/tt0517653/characters/nm0160004




*Because we must be able to laugh in even the most trying of times, and things are just starting to get trying. - HE

Good news looking ahead. The landscape rumbling is not limited to the SEC and Big 12.

"New @pac12 commissioner George Kliavkoff at his state of the conference address at media day: "We believe our media rights will be even more valuable if there is further FBS consolidation."
==========

Kliavkoff: "I can confirm every decision the conference makes related to football is on the table for discussion.” Mentions number of conference games, OOC scheduling and more.
Bryan Fischer
@BryanDFischer
Kliavkoff: “We do not believe expansion is required to continue to compete and drive. That said, the fallout from Texas and Oklahoma gives an opportunity to again consider (expansion)."

I couldn't say it better, so here it is verbatim...

"The Big 10's TV deal with CBS, Fox, and ESPN expires in 2023 which isn't that far off. That could help speed up the Big 10's decision on whether to expand or not. I'm sure the networks are going to want to know what the Big 10 has in mind as they put together their bids and negotiate deals."

Sweet_Lew @ kansas.forums.rivals.com/threads/the-fas...r.97452/post-1874228

Timing is everything. And in that vein, my worry right now would be that the PAC-12 moves out aggressively in making offers to a selected number of the remaining Big 12 members. That almost certainly would include KU. That would put a lot of pressure on KU to move the Big Ten to a quick decision, just so that it doesn't get left behind in the scramble and thus loses a chance to go to the PAC-12 should the Big Ten balk at adding us.

I'm not a fan of joining the PAC-12 for multiple reasons - though I'd take it if the only alternative was to stay in a Rump Big 12 or join some lesser conference like the AAC or Mountain West. In fact, I'd much rather that KU make a push to join the ACC (if the Big Ten balks) if it comes to that. But, again, timing is everything. I'm glad we have a new AD who - I think - has a good bead on this and is going to fight like hell to advance KU's interests, knowing that this is the mother of all first priorities. Get this right, and all else can fall into place.

PS: Maybe his coming from Northwestern will serve us quite favorably in making the case to the Big Ten? Hope so!

PS: Per Goff's background, there's also this ACC connection that could come in very handy going forward:

Goff worked under former Northwestern AD Jim Phillips, who recently left the school to become the next commissioner of the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Source: LJW article announcing Goff's hire (4/5/21)

Another poster on Slant notes recent reports from multiple sources that the B1G will not accept teams in expansion that are not AAU. It's actually a pretty short list and such comments seem to infer the B1G will consider expansion if OU/tu go SEC.

PAC Schools
UW, OU, Cal, Stanford, UCLA, USC, AZ, Utah, CU

ACC Schools
Pitt, Duke, UNC, UVA, GTAech

SEC Schools
UF, TAMU, Vandy, mOO

Big XII Schools
KU, ISU, UT

Word is that any schools that would be under consideration for B1G expansion should ideally be connected to the existing footprint.

KU touches NE
ISU is in IA (which could be a negative for ISU with Iowa already in the B1G)
CU touches NE
mOO touches IA
Pitt touches OH (and Penn St already a B1G member, which could be a negative for Pitt to B1G)
UVA touches MD

Those are the only six that meet both criteria.

Some people talk about getting mOO to achieve its original fondest dream and jump to the B1G, but the B1G didn't offer them when they had the chance the first time and frankly I don't see anybody leaving the SEC -- or the Pac-12 or ACC for that matter (CU, UVA and Pitt).

That leaves KU and ISU as the two likeliest AAU member candidates if the B1G does decide to expand.

Kbone @ kansas.forums.rivals.com/threads/b1g-and-aau.97460/