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9 reasons Kansas is the most dominant force in NCAA hoops

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3772 by konza63
Obviously, a very flattering piece:

www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/sto...-ku-dominance-021016

He makes a very compelling argument--though, of course, Duke, UK, and UNC might beg to differ.

Certainly you cannot argue with our regular season elite status during the Self era. It's absolutely incredible. And if Self's teams had managed to garner just one more NCAA crown, or perhaps make 2-3 more FF runs, the author's overall argument (per the brash title of the article) would be fairly unassailable. But the post-season matters, and Self and Self-lead KU teams still have some rounding out to do on the resume if they truly want to lay claim to Numero Uno.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3776 by ATXJayhawk
The 2010, 2011, and 2013 teams were all dominant during the regular season and they all had the numbers to make the final 4. The question we have to ask ourselves is why doesn't our dominance show up in tournament play. We had no business losing to Northern Iowa, VCU, or to blow our big lead against Michigan in 2013. So what happened to these teams? Coaching? Nervousness? Unpreparedness? Style of play? Game plans?

To me, it seems rather simple for how you beat a Bill Self coached team in the tournament because I've seen it time and time again. We lost to teams who shoot a lot of three pointers. Here's the numbers for the opponents that eliminated KU in 2010, 2011, 2013, and 2015.

2010 Northern Iowa: ranked 132nd, averaged 18.8 three point shots a game
2011 VCU: ranked 20th, averaged 22.9 three point shots a game
2013 Michigan: ranked 96th, averaged 19.8 three point shots a game
2015 Wichita State: ranked 144th, averaged 19 three point shots a game.

It makes sense when past KU teams relied heavily on our big's to protect the rim and pound the glass. That left the perimeter open a lot of the time for opposing teams to make three point shots. The numbers from those tournament games kind of speak for themselves. Northern Iowa: 9-26 from three, VCU: 12-25 from three, Michigan: 8-23 from three. I'll even throw in Wichita State as they were 10-20 from three. Do you see a recurring theme here?

What about this years team?

So, knowing this I bring you to this years team. Whats different about them? Well, for starters we don't have the dominant inside presence like those past teams had. What we do have is two fast point guards in Frank Mason and Devonte Graham who are able to guard the perimeter. Throw in a more experienced Selden and you have a 3rd option to guard the perimeter. Case and point; KU is ranked 77th in opponent points from 3 pointers. Opposing teams only get 18.8 ppg from three point shots. Thats an average of only 6 three pointers allowed per game. For comparison to other big names ranked ahead of us; W Virginia is ranked 6th, Kentucky is ranked 12th, Michigan State is ranked 13th, Louisville is ranked 29th, K-State is ranked 40th, Wichita State is ranked 63rd. The other schools ahead of us are mostly schools from outside the power 5 conferences.

The 2010 team allowed 19.1 ppg from three point shots (ranked 200), the 2011 team allowed 17.8 ppg from three point shots (ranked 128th), and the 2013 team allowed 19.1 ppg from three point shots (ranked 207).

THE NUMBERS PROVE WE HAVE A TEAM WHO IS REALLY GOOD AT DEFENDING AGAINST THE THREE. THAT SHOULD MAKE EVERYONE OF US REALLY HAPPY MOVING FORWARD.

2010 (national champion caliber numbers)
-Finished the season #2 in Ken Pom's rankings
-Ranked #2 in adjOFF and #9 in adjDEF
-Ranked #1 in average scoring margin
-Ranked #5 in ppg
-Ranked #8 in team shooting %
-Ranked #62 in opponent ppg
-Ranked #4 in opponent shooting %

2011 (national champion caliber numbers)
-Finished the season #2 in Ken Pom's rankings
-Ranked #7 in adjOFF and #11 in adjDEF
-Ranked #3 in average scoring margin
-Ranked #6 in ppg
-Ranked #1 in team shooting %
-Ranked #69 in opponent ppg
-Ranked #11 in opponent shooting %

2013 (final four caliber numbers)
-Finished the season #8 in Ken Pom's rankings
-Ranked #34 in adjOFF and #5 in adjDEF
-Ranked #5 in average scoring margin
-Ranked #18 in ppg
-Ranked #8 in team shooting %
-Ranked #51 in opponent ppg
-Ranked #1 in opponent shooting %

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by ATXJayhawk.
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8 years 9 months ago #3778 by Bayhawk
Great post ATX, thanks!!! :cheer:

RC A & F

The end is nothing; the road is all.
-- Jules Michelet

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8 years 9 months ago #3779 by JRhawk
Agree Konza - mostly tilted toward AFH & Big 12. Who besides KU (2008) from the Big 12 has won a NC in last 11 years? Even been in FF? Reason 8 - consecutive NCAA appearances is nice, but first and second round losses are not. So IMHO, the premise doesn't hold water.

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3780 by konza63
Good stuff, ATX, but how do you reconcile these two things?

(1) Your assessment of this year's team, WRT 3-pt FG defense:

Opposing teams only get 18.8 ppg from three point shots. Thats an average of only 6 three pointers allowed per game.

THE NUMBERS PROVE WE HAVE A TEAM WHO IS REALLY GOOD AT DEFENDING AGAINST THE THREE. THAT SHOULD MAKE EVERYONE OF US REALLY HAPPY MOVING FORWARD.


(2) Your analysis of the primary reason for KU's postseason failure in 2010, 2011, and 2013:

The 2010 team allowed 19.1 ppg from three point shots (ranked 200), the 2011 team allowed 17.8 ppg from three point shots (ranked 128th), and the 2013 team allowed 19.1 ppg from three point shots (ranked 207).


If I read your post (and the numbers above) correctly, this year's team is at a virtual statistical tie with the 2010 team (18.8 to 19.1), slightly worse than the 2011 team (18.8 to 17.8 ), and is virtually tied with the 2013 team (18.8 to 19.1).

If you go by raw numbers, it appears that this team gives up just as many made 3-pointers as those three tourney teams. Am I missing something?

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 9 months ago #3781 by ATXJayhawk
You're forgetting one very important thing Konza. Scoring is up this year with the rule changes so of course you would expect the averages to be higher for everyone. That's exactly what happened for most big name schools. The best team this year in points allowed from 3 pointers is 3.6 points higher than last year. Thats an average of one made 3 point shot per game; and that's for the best team in the country at not allowing points from 3 pointers.

Here's a comparison of this year to last year for a few schools and points allowed from 3 pointers:

Kentucky
2015: 13.5
2016: 16.1

Duke
2015: 15.2
2016: 19

Wisconsin
2015: 15.2
2016: 17.8

Wichita St
2015: 15.8
2016: 18.3

Kansas St
2015: 16.1
2016: 17.5

Baylor
2015: 17.1
2016: 19.8

Michigan St (They have actually improved their 3 pt defense number this year)
2015: 17.2
2016: 16.3

Kansas
2015: 17.5
2016: 18.8

Texas
2015: 18
2016: 19.2

North Carolina
2015: 19.5
2016: 23.9

The fact that KU has gone from 17.5 to 18.8 points allowed from 3 pointers is great in this season of higher scoring. We are only allowing 1.3 more points from three this season. Our ranking has gone from 101 to 77 in the country compared to last year.

The bottom line is we have improved our three point defense this year even though the actual number is technically higher than last year. But then again almost everyone elses numbers are higher too.

Here's last seasons top 10 rankings for opponent points from 3 pointers
  1. Fla Atlantic-10.2
  2. Rhode Island-11.1
  3. N Mex State-11.3
  4. TX Christian-12.7
  5. Pepperdine-13.5
  6. Manhattan-13.5
  7. Kentucky-13.5
  8. Ste F Austin-13.9
  9. San Diego-14
  10. Richmond-14.1

Here's this seasons top 10 rankings for opponent points from 3 pointers
  1. American-13.8
  2. Rhode Island-14.4
  3. St Fran (NY)-14.8
  4. Vanderbilt-15.4
  5. NC-Wilmgton-15.4
  6. W Virginia-15.5
  7. N Dakota St-15.7
  8. Fla Atlantic-15.8
  9. Prairie View-15.8
  10. Manhattan-15.9

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!

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8 years 9 months ago #3784 by JRhawk
A couple of points - this year's SOS is lower rated than last year's. From your "What about this year's team?" section - all three of the players that you cited (Mason, Graham, & Selden) were here last year too. Also had Oubre. So I'm not seeing where this year's team is better at guarding the 3. Admittedly, in some games, Selden is playing better this year than last.

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3785 by konza63

So I'm not seeing where this year's team is better at guarding the 3.


I'm not seeing it either, JR, based strictly on the numbers presented. If anything, once you account for a slight uptick in scoring nationally, and evidently one more 3 made per game for the top team in the land (not us), it appears KU is only marginally improved at 3PFG defense this year. And it seems so statistically insignificant as to be a stretch.

The question of why KU has flamed out in the tourney is a separate, albeit interesting sub-dimension to the initial post (which was about KU's purported national "dominance")...and probably deserving of its own thread. Given this year's team's deficiencies, we'll likely get that thread (and it will be a long one) come March or April. I hope we don't, but the odds are we will (as are the odds for most teams--it's a gauntlet). But I'm not sure you can just say it's "one thing" (one flaw in their game) that accounts for those premature tourney departures. It's impossible to argue with absolute empirical certainty that it is or isn't, but one thing we all can possibly agree on is there are multiple variables in play (some quantitative, some qualitative, some more weighty than others, etc.).

Rock Chalk...

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3786 by konza63
Addendum:

I do see that this year's team has improved its relative standing, in comparison to the full national field, in the 3PFGD department.

BUT...we're still 77th...and we're giving up slightly more in raw 3-point scoring this year over last. Even allowing for the slight national uptick in scoring (and one more made 3 for the top-ranked 3PFGD team in the land), we're still pretty "meh" or "middling" in this area.

I'm also not saying that 3PFGD wasn't a factor in KU's tourney losses in the past--it certainly was. But it certainly wasn't the ONLY factor. I could break down each of those losses, as I know others could here, and point to multiple factors--some of them of the truly head-scratching variety. But we've already done that (in the aftermath of the losses themselves--one of which I sadly experienced live), so there's no sense in regurgitating those threads (even if we could, which we can't on the new board--archives are gone).

The above notwithstanding, I love and appreciate your quant-takes, ATX. Keep them up! ;)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #3787 by ATXJayhawk
Speaking of being at tournament games, I was at the 2011 VCU-KU elite 8 game, 2012 Ohio State-KU final 4 game, and the 2013 Michigan-KU sweet 16 game. All were great experiences; win or lose.

I agree, we don't need to bring up past shortcomings as it's all been explained here before. I just wanted to start a discussion of KU defending the three this year and how good of a 3 point shooting team we've become.

Crimson and blue looks so much better than burnt orange!!!
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by ATXJayhawk.
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8 years 9 months ago #3793 by JRhawk
I wasn't going to add to this, but since 18 hours had passed since the last bb post, guess I won't be blocking anything important from getting posted. You have one year of attendance that I don't have (kick myself for not going to NOLA in 2012). Was at FF in 08 (my only positive experience of watching KU bb games at a football stadium), 2010 OKC R-32 (possibly the year our esteemed moderator was referring to), 2011 - Elite 8 (San Antonio massacre), 2013 - S16 in Arlington, 2014 St Louis R-32, 2015 Omaha R-32. What made 2011 doubly troubling was I had FF tix, so went on to Houston. Thankfully saw VCU & UK loose in semis. Am hoping for a return to FF in Houston this year.
NOTE: My session got timed out by the time I tried to submit this, so in the interim have been at least 2 bb related posts.

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #4206 by porthawk
From the article:

It hasn't stopped Kansas. Through Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin, through two years in which not a single starter returned, in years that saw pedestrian 3-4 conference starts, there's Kansas, always finding a way to the top of the Big 12.


1. What is the second year where no starters returned?

2. I know we started a season 3-4 overall (I believe it was Chalmers's freshmen year -- the '05-'06 season), but I don't think we had a 3-4 conference start. Can anyone confirm or deny this?
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by porthawk.

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8 years 9 months ago #4212 by LKF_HAWK
08-09 after the NC.

In 05-06 Hawks started 1-2 in the Conf and then went 11-1 and won the Big X12 Tourney

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8 years 9 months ago - 8 years 9 months ago #4216 by konza63

I don't think we had a 3-4 conference start. Can anyone confirm or deny this?


Some mainstream media commentator just wrote a really nice piece on KU's conference performances for the entire duration of the streak, and I can't seem to recall who the heck it was. It covered how we started and then finished each season (in conference), to include home and away breakdowns. Does anyone else remember seeing it?

The reason I ask is the point the author made was that, in virtually every season, KU started the conference season very strongly. That's why the 3-4 conference starts assertion (stated by this author in the plural) doesn't seem right to me, either. I'd love to remember that article and author, so I could find it and post it here, but it's completely escaping me now. I'll try to jog the memory some more, but if anyone can recall it, please post it.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 8 years 9 months ago by konza63.

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8 years 9 months ago #4224 by JRhawk
Don't know about the article, but no 3-4 starts. During HCBS tenure, worst start was 1-2 in 05-06. Have been two 3 game losing streaks: 04-05 and 12-13, both were mid to late season.

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8 years 9 months ago #4225 by konza63
I definitely didn't have time to dive into the season research, so I appreciate that.

I'm also glad to know that my memory bank isn't shot, and that the author was dead wrong in stating that we had not just one but more than one season in which we started 3-4 in conference.

Rock Chalk...

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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8 years 9 months ago #4226 by porthawk
nm

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8 years 9 months ago #4239 by HawkErrant
For completeness (because it is not overtly mentioned anywhere in this thread or in the article that I noticed): for the record, the two seasons in the conference championship streak that saw KU not return a starter were:

2008-09 after the NC
lost Rush, Chalmers, Arthur, Jackson, Russell Robinson, Kaun and more

and

2013-14
lost Withey, Young, Releford, McLemore and Elijah Johnson

"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"

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8 years 9 months ago #4242 by porthawk
LKF wrote:

08-09 after the NC.
In 05-06 Hawks started 1-2 in the Conf and then went 11-1 and won the Big X12 Tourney


So is it '05-'06 or '13-'14...or both?

In '04-'05 starters Simien, Langford, and Miles graduated. Who were the other two starters that year?

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8 years 9 months ago #4249 by JRhawk
Aren't there two questions: 1. were there any 3-4 conference starts (answer is no) 2. Were there years when were no returning starters - HE cited 2008-09 and 2013-14. Don't know about 05-06.
While maybe technically true, the 08-09 team had Collins who played significant minutes the year before, plus Morningstar a RS-So, Reed & Teahan So's, Aldrich who averaged 8..3 min and had an outstanding FF-Semi game vs UNC. Also, Little a Jr from a high calibered JUCO team. Plus freshmen Morris twins, Releford, & TT. The 13-14 team had Tharpe - Jr who played a lot the year before. Black - Sr, Ellis So, plus Wiggins, Embiid, Mason, Selden, Greene, & Frankamp freshman. Not like the cupboard was bare either year.

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