Big 12 projection, Round 10

A couple of changes in the projected standings.  Texas' home win over Texas Tech coupled with
Baylor's road loss to West Virginia was enough for them to swap places in the projected
standings.  More importantly, Oklahoma's road loss to Kansas State coupled with West Virginia's
home win over Baylor was enough for them to swap places at the top of the standings.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  4  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50  13.78    8  2  @KU  (Tu)   
#  5  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83  12.86    7  3   UT  (Mo)   OU  by  8.8
#  6  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20  12.36    7  3   WVU (Tu)   KU  by  2.4
# 21  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49  10.85    6  4  @TT  (We)   ISU by  2.6   projected road win
# 32  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13  10.35    7  3  @OU  (Mo)   
# 31  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22   9.99    6  4  @KSU (We)   
# 44  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11   7.11    3  7   BU  (We)   KSU by  0.9
# 56  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96   5.74    3  7   ISU (We)   
# 67  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15   4.72    2  8  @TCU (Mo)   OSU by  2.3   projected road win
#122  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41   2.24    1  9   OSU (Mo)   

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 10, the first one to repeat
for top honors this season.  Greenfield retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           2          1+                       1     1     1     +     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
ISU over OSU     3.3   4.0   3.4   4.5   6.0   4.5   1.0   2.4   4.1   4.1   4.0   5.8   3.7   1.8   0.3   3.5      5     1.7   1.0   1.6   0.5   1.0   0.5   4.0   2.6   0.9   0.9   1.0   0.8   1.3   3.2   4.7   1.5
OU  over KSU     5.8   6.0   6.6   5.5   2.0   6.0   2.0   5.3   6.2   5.9  -1.0   4.7   7.0   5.1   5.8   3.2    -11    16.8  17.0  17.6  16.5  13.0  17.0  13.0  16.3  17.2  16.9  10.0  15.7  18.0  16.1  16.8  14.2
UT  over TT      7.4   8.0   6.9   9.5  11.0   9.0   8.0   7.4   6.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   7.2   9.1  11.7   6.6     10     2.6   2.0   3.1   0.5   1.0   1.0   2.0   2.6   4.0   5.0   6.0   4.0   2.8   0.9   1.7   3.4
WV  over BU      9.2   9.0   6.6   6.5   7.5   6.5   9.0   9.2   8.0   8.3   6.0   8.4  10.6  12.5  10.7  13.4     11     1.8   2.0   4.4   4.5   3.5   4.5   2.0   1.8   3.0   2.7   5.0   2.6   0.4   1.5   0.3   2.4
KU  over TCU    12.3  10.0   9.8  13.0  14.0  12.0   5.0  10.9  11.0   7.8   6.0   9.5  13.2  11.3  10.9  12.4     19     6.7   9.0   9.2   6.0   5.0   7.0  14.0   8.1   8.0  11.2  13.0   9.5   5.8   7.7   8.1   6.6

total this round                                                                                                         29.6  31.0  35.9  28.0  23.5  30.0  35.0  31.4  33.1  36.7  35.0  32.6  28.3  29.4  31.6  28.1
previous total                                                                                                          318.1 329.0 322.9 315.0 378.5 319.0 397.0 325.3 333.5 335.4 381.0 331.3 333.8 334.2 362.6 333.5
cumulative                                                                                                              347.7 360.0 358.8 343.0 402.0 349.0 432.0 356.7 366.6 372.1 416.0 363.9 362.1 363.6 394.2 361.6
per game (total of 50)                                                                                                    7.0   7.2   7.2   6.9   8.0   7.0   8.6   7.1   7.3   7.4   8.3   7.3   7.2   7.3   7.9   7.2

Only two of the projected three road wins actually happened in Round 10.  The Sooners
failed to win in Manhattan, which is good news for Jayhawk fans.  Just two road wins
are projected for Round 11, with Iowa State in Lubbock, and Oklahoma State in Fort Worth.

Road wins (17 out of 50)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
4 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU     0 Kansas                                 +3 West Virginia 
3 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU         0 Oklahoma                               +2 Kansas        
3 Iowa State      KSU TCU OSU         0 Texas                                  +2 Oklahoma      
2 Kansas          TT  TCU             1 West Virginia   UT                     +2 Texas         
2 Oklahoma        OSU BU              2 Baylor          OU  UT                 +1 Baylor        
2 Texas           WV  BU              2 Iowa State      BU  WV                 +1 Iowa State    
1 Texas Tech      TCU                 2 Kansas State    WV  ISU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Kansas State                        3 Oklahoma State  OU  BU  ISU            -2 Texas Tech    
0 Oklahoma State                      3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV             -3 Oklahoma State
0 TCU                                 4 TCU             WV  TT  ISU KU         -4 TCU           

The home loss to Texas and the road loss to Florida have given West Virginia the
conference's most negative trend.  Let's hope that comes into play on Tuesday,
which would project a 9 point loss to Kansas.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.56    Texas Tech        6.04    Texas           +0.51 +/- 0.33    Iowa State      +0.26 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma        +0.91    Kansas State      8.02    Oklahoma State  +0.30 +/- 0.33    Oklahoma State  +0.23 +/- 0.19
Kansas          +0.59    Oklahoma          8.37    Kansas State    +0.12 +/- 0.26    Kansas State    +0.05 +/- 0.14
Texas Tech      +0.35    Iowa State        8.61    Iowa State      -0.06 +/- 0.28    Oklahoma        -0.03 +/- 0.18
Iowa State      +0.32    TCU               9.23    Texas Tech      -0.09 +/- 0.21    Texas           -0.07 +/- 0.23
Texas           +0.15    West Virginia    10.52    TCU             -0.13 +/- 0.30    TCU             -0.08 +/- 0.15
Baylor          +0.13    Oklahoma State   10.53    Kansas          -0.30 +/- 0.36    Kansas          -0.17 +/- 0.22
Kansas State    -0.05    Kansas           10.74    Oklahoma        -0.35 +/- 0.28    Baylor          -0.17 +/- 0.18
Oklahoma State  -0.05    Texas            10.77    Baylor          -0.35 +/- 0.36    Texas Tech      -0.25 +/- 0.12
TCU             -0.37    Baylor           10.78    West Virginia   -0.57 +/- 0.31    West Virginia   -0.48 +/- 0.18

Seven of the Top 20 strengths of schedule are in the Big 12.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Oklahoma        84.68    West Virginia   65.74    Oklahoma        157.00    West Virginia   +14.91    Iowa State      80.17 ( 3)
Iowa State      81.65    Oklahoma State  66.83    Iowa State      155.39    Oklahoma        +12.36    Texas           79.82 ( 4)
Kansas          80.86    Texas           67.13    Kansas          150.23    Kansas          +11.50    Oklahoma        79.63 ( 5)
West Virginia   80.65    Kansas State    67.96    West Virginia   146.39    Iowa State       +7.91    Kansas          79.32 ( 7)
Baylor          76.55    Baylor          69.23    Baylor          145.77    Baylor           +7.32    Texas Tech      78.92 (10)
Texas           72.13    Kansas          69.36    Texas Tech      141.23    Texas            +5.00    Kansas State    78.82 (11)
Kansas State    71.65    Texas Tech      69.68    Kansas State    139.61    Kansas State     +3.70    West Virginia   78.35 (19)
Texas Tech      71.55    TCU             70.35    Texas           139.26    Oklahoma State   +2.83    Baylor          77.63 (35)
Oklahoma State  69.65    Oklahoma        72.32    TCU             137.91    Texas Tech       +1.86    TCU             77.43 (38)
TCU             67.57    Iowa State      73.74    Oklahoma State  136.48    TCU              -2.78    Oklahoma State  77.07 (48)