predictions for Arkansas game

[chant]  SIX MORE GAMES!  SIX MORE GAMES!  SIX MORE GAMES!

Survive and advance.

Kansas can beat anybody.  Kansas can also lose to anybody.  That's actually
a pretty good mindset to have going into the Big Dance.  It pretty much
guarantees that you're not going to take any opponent lightly.  And now that
we've seen a couple of 1 seeds lose to 16 seeds in the Big Dance, it's strong
evidence that nobody should ever take an opponent lightly in this Tournament.

But the computer ratings suggest that Kansas has less than a 0.1 percent
chance of actually winning the National Championship.  Of course, those odds
assume that the higher seeded opponent always advances in the tournament.
If there are upsets that eliminate a potential future opponent, the odds will
likely improve.  And of course, winning the first game will improve the odds
by over 50 percent.

For some bizarre reason, Seven Overtimes has Arkansas with an
automatic bid and a 12 seed.  Huh?  You have to win your conference
tournament to receive an automatic bid.  Some folks in Florida
might dispute Arkansas' automatic bid.  And 12 seeds do not play
against 7 seeds in the Round of 64.

And as of Thursday morning, INCCStats.com still hasn't put up any predictions
for the Big Dance, although it did do so for the Big 12 Tournament.  The other
fifteen predictions are almost unanimous in favoring Kansas, and by up to 11.5
points (Dunkel), though the common opponents comparison does favor Arkansas by
a fraction of a point.  The average is 4.71 points in favor of Kansas, with a
scatter of 2.63 points.

[chant]  SIX MORE GAMES!  SIX MORE GAMES!  SIX MORE GAMES!

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Ark     KU      Defensive Stats      Ark     KU
Points/Game         76.6    76.2     Opp Points/Game     71.2    69.3
Avg Score Margin    +5.5    +6.9     Opp Effective FG %  48.3    46.2
Assists/Game        14.5    17.7     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.5     8.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.3    38.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.5    25.9
Effective FG %      52.7    53.1     Blocks/Game          5.6     4.8
Off Rebound %       25.0    28.0     Steals/Game          7.6     6.2
FTA/FGA            0.355   0.243     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.1    14.2
Turnover %          14.6    14.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU              Ark
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.14           +1.20    
inconsistency         13.24           11.11    
trend                 -0.33 ± 0.24    +0.01 ± 0.21
mental toughness      -0.27 ± 0.25    -0.22 ± 0.17         
average total pts     145.48          148.03 

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Baylor and Missouri, the latter of which
Arkansas has played twice, giving us three scores to compare.  Some of you might
argue that there is a fourth score that can be compared, namely the exhibition
game that Kansas played against Arkansas, but recall that Hunter Dickinson did
not play in that contest, Rylan Griffen did not play in that contest, and Shakeel
Moore did not play in that contest.   So I've chosen not to include that score
here.

KU  -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)
Ark  -5 BU  neutral ( -5 neutral court)
KU   -2 Ark neutral ( -2 neutral court)

KU   -9 MU  on road ( -5 neutral court)     KU   -9 MU  on road ( -5 neutral court)
Ark -18 MU  on road (-13 neutral court)     Ark  +7 MU  at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU   +8 Ark neutral ( +8 neutral court)     KU   -8 Ark neutral ( -8 neutral court)

One of the comparisons favors Kansas, while two favor Arkansas.  The average is
0.67 points in favor of Arkansas, with a scatter of 8.08 points.  I don't put a
lot of stock in this result, partially due to small number statistics, and
partially because Kansas should have beaten Baylor, and handily.  That meltdown
still boggles the mind.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       D. J. Wagner (guard)
most points        Adou Thiero (forward)
most rebounds      Adou Thiero (forward)
most assists       Boogie Fland (guard)
most steals        Adou Thiero (forward)
most blocks        Zvonimir Ivisic (forward)
most turnovers     D. J. Wagner (guard)
most fouls         Adou Thiero (forward)

Greenfield claims that Boogie Fland is out for the remainder of the season with
a hand injury, but media reports say he'll be back for the tournament.  Is that
an inconsistency, or when Greenfield said "remainder of the season", did he mean
"remainder of the regular season"?  But Boogie didn't play in the SEC Tournament.
If he does play, he may be on limited minutes.  Also, leading scorer and rebounder
Adou Theiro has been out with a knee injury, and Calipari described his status for
Thursday's game as "doubtful".  Or is Calipari trying to goad Self into not
preparing for him?

                                                          21-12          20-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Arkansas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +4.00   76   72       64       # 21   #  4    # 42   # 40
Pomeroy                 +3.89   74   70       64.3     # 21   # 12    # 40   # 23
Greenfield              +4.50   75   70.5              # 14   #  8    # 39   # 33
Dunkel                 +11.50   76   65                # 91           #100
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   75   71                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +5.07   74   69       67.3     # 21   # 10    # 37   # 30
Seven Overtimes         +8.00   77   69       68       # 23   # 10    # 90   # 73
Real Time               +5.00   73   68       58.6     # 30   # 10    # 75   # 41
DPPI                    +3.60   75   72       61.1     # 16   #  5    # 40   # 35 
ESPN BPI                +5.60                 71.0     # 14   #  4    # 42   # 43
Whitlock                +2.93                          # 22   #  7    # 39   # 28
Colley Matrix           +2.74                          # 27   #  9    # 52   # 30
Donchess                +4.70   78   73       64.9     # 28   #  8    # 38   # 25
Haslametrics            +5.29   75   69                # 18           # 42
INCCStats                                              # 18           # 38
common opponents        -0.67             
NCAA NET                                               # 20           # 40
LRMC                                                   # 15   #  4    # 38   # 45
Massey composite                                       # 25           # 41
Pomeroy offense                                        # 48           # 73
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           # 20
Pomeroy tempo                                          #113           # 68
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +4.71   75.3 69.9     64.9
scatter                  2.63    1.4  2.2      3.9

Here is Kansas' season:
                                                                            CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.   PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----   -----
HOME   #312 Howard                      87  57   +29.05    +0.95
HOME   # 33 North Carolina              92  89    +6.11    -3.11
NEUT   #  8 Michigan St.                77  69    -2.85   +10.85
HOME   #177 Oakland                     78  57   +19.28    +1.72
HOME   #105 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +15.34    +2.66
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        75  72    -9.80   +12.80
HOME   #137 Furman                      86  51   +17.36   +17.64
AWAY   # 37 Creighton                   63  76    -0.41   -12.59
AWAY   # 15 Missouri                    67  76    -4.25    -4.75
HOME   #125 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.23    -1.23
HOME   #208 Brown                       87  53   +21.29   +12.71
HOME   # 53 West Virginia               61  62    +8.77    -9.77
AWAY   # 68 UCF                         99  48    +4.92   +46.08
HOME   # 70 Arizona St.                 74  55   +11.79    +7.21
AWAY   # 55 Cincinnati                  54  40    +2.07   +11.93
AWAY   # 10 Iowa St.                    57  74    -6.04   -10.96
HOME   # 67 Kansas St.                  84  74   +10.88    -0.88
AWAY   # 86 TCU                         74  61    +6.16    +6.84
HOME   #  3 Houston                     86  92    -3.94    -2.06
HOME   # 68 UCF                         91  87   +11.92    -7.92
AWAY   # 29 Baylor                      70  81    -2.08    -8.92
HOME   # 10 Iowa St.                    69  52    +0.96   +16.04
AWAY   # 67 Kansas St.                  73  81    +3.88   -11.88
HOME   # 81 Colorado                    71  59   +12.84    -0.84
AWAY   # 76 Utah                        67  74    +5.17   -12.17
AWAY   # 24 BYU                         57  91    -2.89   -31.11
HOME   #100 Oklahoma St.                96  64   +15.66   +16.34
AWAY   # 81 Colorado                    71  64    +5.84    +1.16
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  73  78    +0.36    -5.36
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     59  65   -10.94    +4.94
HOME   # 14 Arizona                     83  76    +1.82    +5.18
NEUT   # 68 UCF                         98  94    +8.42    -4.42
NEUT   # 14 Arizona                     77  88    -1.68    -9.32
NEUT   # 40 Arkansas                    74  70    +3.89             0.643   0.643
NEUT   # 11 St. John's                  69  71    -2.18             0.419   0.269
NEUT   #  7 Texas Tech                  71  74    -3.14             0.383   0.103
NEUT   #  2 Florida                     72  81    -8.99             0.198   0.020
NEUT   #  4 Auburn                      71  78    -7.92             0.227   0.005
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  76    -9.80             0.177   0.001

Here is Arkansas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 83 Lipscomb                    76  70    +8.99    -2.99
NEUT   # 29 Baylor                      67  72    -2.23    -2.77
HOME   # 98 Troy                        65  49   +10.78    +5.22
HOME   #283 Pacific                     91  72   +22.40    -3.40
HOME   #227 Little Rock                 79  67   +19.00    -7.00
HOME   #358 Maryland Eastern Shore     109  35   +30.34   +43.66
NEUT   # 20 Illinois                    77  90    -4.20    -8.80
AWAY   #192 Miami FL                    75  73   +10.34    -8.34
HOME   #191 UTSA                        75  60   +17.77    -2.77
NEUT   # 25 Michigan                    89  87    -3.24    +5.24
NEUT   #346 Central Arkansas            82  57   +24.20    +0.80
HOME   #335 North Carolina A&T          95  67   +27.40    +0.60
HOME   #177 Oakland                     92  62   +15.90   +14.10
AWAY   #  5 Tennessee                   52  76   -12.23   -11.77
HOME   # 26 Mississippi                 66  73    +0.53    -7.53
HOME   #  2 Florida                     63  71    -9.58    +1.58
AWAY   # 88 LSU                         74  78    +2.71    -6.71
AWAY   # 15 Missouri                    65  83    -8.14    -9.86
HOME   # 34 Georgia                     68  65    +2.35    +0.65
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma                    62  65    +3.08    -6.08
AWAY   # 16 Kentucky                    89  79    -8.25   +18.25
AWAY   # 44 Texas                       78  70    -3.16   +11.16
HOME   #  6 Alabama                     81  85    -5.77    +1.77
HOME   # 88 LSU                         70  58    +9.71    +2.29
AWAY   # 17 Texas A&M                   61  69    -7.80    -0.20
AWAY   #  4 Auburn                      60  67   -15.39    +8.39
HOME   # 15 Missouri                    92  85    -1.14    +8.14
HOME   # 44 Texas                       86  81    +3.84    +1.16
AWAY   # 69 South Carolina              53  72    +0.62   -19.62
AWAY   # 49 Vanderbilt                  90  77    -2.37   +15.37
HOME   # 32 Mississippi St.             93  92    +1.84    -0.84
NEUT   # 69 South Carolina              72  68    +4.12    -0.12
NEUT   # 26 Mississippi                 80  83    -2.97    -0.03
NEUT   # 21 Kansas                      70  74    -3.89             0.357