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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Arizona game
- asteroid
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3 weeks 5 days ago #33624
by asteroid
It's getting late, so I'm going to keep this short.
Only Dunkel picked Kansas to beat Houston; Dunkel was wrong. Let's hope that trend
continues, because only Dunkel is picking Arizona to win. Everybody else favors
Kansas by anywhere from 1 point (Massey, Seven Overtimes, INCCStats) to 10 points
(Real Time, thanks to the enormous home court advantage Real Time uses). The
average is 2.4 points in favor of Kansas with a scatter of 2.5 points.
It's Senior Day. Can we preserve this 41-year-old streak, pretty please?
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UA KU Defensive Stats UA KU
Points/Game 82.2 75.2 Opp Points/Game 71.7 67.6
Avg Score Margin +10.5 +7.6 Opp Effective FG % 48.1 45.2
Assists/Game 17.0 17.5 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.8 8.6
Total Rebounds/Gm 40.3 38.5 Def Rebounds/Gm 25.9 26.2
Effective FG % 52.6 53.1 Blocks/Game 4.3 4.8
Off Rebound % 35.4 27.4 Steals/Game 8.0 6.3
FTA/FGA 0.371 0.243 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.6 14.0
Turnover % 13.9 14.7
My Stats Comparison KU UA
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.14 +2.00
inconsistency 13.62 11.59
trend -0.35 ± 0.28 -0.13 ± 0.25
mental toughness -0.25 ± 0.26 -0.43 ± 0.19
average total pts 142.83 153.87
Common Opponents
================
There are fifteen common opponents, all 14 other conference members plus Duke, four
of which Kansas has played twice (UCF, Colorado, Kansas State, Houston), five of
which Arizona has played twice (West Virginia, Baylor, Texas Tech, Arizona State, BYU,
though one of those West Virginia games was a non-conference neutral court tournament
game), and one of which both have played twice (Iowa State), giving us twenty five
scores to compare:
KU +3 Duk neutral ( +3 neutral court)
UA -14 Duk at home (-18 neutral court)
KU +25 UA at home (+21 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court) KU -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
UA -7 WVU neutral ( -7 neutral court) UA +19 WVU on road (+23 neutral court)
KU +6 UA at home ( +2 neutral court) KU -24 UA at home (-28 neutral court)
KU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
UA +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +16 UA at home (+12 neutral court)
KU +14 UC on road (+18 neutral court)
UA +5 UC on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU +13 UA at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU +4 UCF at home ( 0 neutral court) KU +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court)
UA +8 UCF at home ( +4 neutral court) UA +8 UCF at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU 0 UA at home ( -4 neutral court) KU +55 UA at home (+51 neutral court)
KU -11 BU on road ( -7 neutral court) KU -11 BU on road ( -7 neutral court)
UA +11 BU at home ( +7 neutral court) UA +7 BU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU -10 UA at home (-14 neutral court) KU -14 UA at home (-18 neutral court)
KU -5 TTU at home ( -9 neutral court) KU -5 TTU at home ( -9 neutral court)
UA -16 TTU on road (-12 neutral court) UA +9 TTU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +7 UA at home ( +3 neutral court) KU -10 UA at home (-14 neutral court)
KU +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)
UA +14 OSU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU +14 UA at home (+14 neutral court)
KU +12 CU at home ( +8 neutral court) KU +7 CU on road (+11 neutral court)
UA +15 CU at home (+11 neutral court) UA +15 CU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU +1 UA at home ( -3 neutral court) KU +4 UA at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court) KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
UA +11 ISU at home ( +7 neutral court) KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU +10 UA at home ( +6 neutral court) KU +4 UA at home ( 0 neutral court)
KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court) KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
UA +9 ASU on road (+13 neutral court) UA +13 ASU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU +6 UA at home ( +2 neutral court) KU +10 UA at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court) KU -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court)
UA +11 BYU on road (+15 neutral court) UA -1 BYU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU -41 UA at home (-45 neutral court) KU -29 UA at home (-33 neutral court)
KU -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court) KU +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
UA -3 KSU on road ( +1 neutral court) UA -3 KSU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU -1 UA at home ( -5 neutral court) KU +9 UA at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU -6 UH at home (-10 neutral court) KU -6 UH on road ( -2 neutral court)
UA -4 UH at home ( -8 neutral court) UA -4 UH at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU +2 UA at home ( -2 neutral court) KU +10 UA at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU -7 UU on road ( -3 neutral court)
UA +17 UU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU -12 UA at home (-16 neutral court)
Sixteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, eight favor Arizona, and one is a wash.
The average favors Kansas by 2.04 points, with a scatter of 18.64 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Caleb Love (guard)
most points Caleb Love (guard)
most rebounds Tobe Awaka (forward)
most assists Jaden Bradley (guard)
most steals Jaden Bradley (guard)
most blocks Henri Veesaae (forward)
most turnovers K. J. Lewis (guard)
most fouls Tobe Awaka (forward)
Reserve center Motiejus Krivas is out with a leg injury. He's ninth on the team
in minutes per game and seventh in points per game.
19-11 20-10
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Arizona
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +1.00 76 75 53 # 22 # 4 # 13 # 8
Pomeroy +2.36 77 75 58.8 # 22 # 10 # 13 # 11
Greenfield +3.50 78 75 # 14 # 7 # 10 # 6
Dunkel -3.00 71 74 # 34 # 24
Vegas (via Dunkel) +3.50 78 74
Dolphin Predictive +1.76 76 74 90.4 # 20 # 10 # 11 # 9
Seven Overtimes +1.00 75 74 52 # 32 # 13 # 17 # 8
Real Time +10.00 79 69 67.6 # 30 # 9 # 34 # 24
DPPI +2.70 76 73 57.4 # 18 # 6 # 11 # 9
ESPN BPI +2.50 59.9 # 12 # 5 # 10 # 7
Whitlock +2.21 # 23 # 8 # 14 # 9
Colley Matrix +3.12 # 32 # 10 # 29 # 20
Donchess +3.50 78 75 60.9 # 27 # 7 # 23 # 15
Haslametrics +1.88 76 75 # 16 # 13
INCCStats +1.00 76 75 55.6 # 18 # 10
common opponents +2.04
NCAA NET # 21 # 10
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 25 # 18
Pomeroy offense # 60 # 15
Pomeroy defense # 6 # 25
Pomeroy tempo #107 # 49
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +2.44 76.3 74.0 61.7
scatter 2.55 2.1 1.7 11.7
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #311 Howard 87 57 +29.41 +0.59
HOME # 37 North Carolina 92 89 +7.22 -4.22
NEUT # 9 Michigan St. 77 69 -2.33 +10.33
HOME #181 Oakland 78 57 +19.73 +1.27
HOME #109 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +15.74 +2.26
NEUT # 1 Duke 75 72 -10.59 +13.59
HOME #149 Furman 86 51 +18.35 +16.65
AWAY # 35 Creighton 63 76 -0.06 -12.94
AWAY # 15 Missouri 67 76 -4.47 -4.53
HOME #120 N.C. State 75 60 +16.44 -1.44
HOME #213 Brown 87 53 +21.76 +12.24
HOME # 53 West Virginia 61 62 +8.52 -9.52
AWAY # 78 UCF 99 48 +6.05 +44.95
HOME # 67 Arizona St. 74 55 +11.36 +7.64
AWAY # 54 Cincinnati 54 40 +1.73 +12.27
AWAY # 11 Iowa St. 57 74 -5.17 -11.83
HOME # 62 Kansas St. 84 74 +10.80 -0.80
AWAY # 82 TCU 74 61 +5.87 +7.13
HOME # 3 Houston 86 92 -3.58 -2.42
HOME # 78 UCF 91 87 +13.05 -9.05
AWAY # 30 Baylor 70 81 -1.39 -9.61
HOME # 11 Iowa St. 69 52 +1.83 +15.17
AWAY # 62 Kansas St. 73 81 +3.80 -11.80
HOME # 94 Colorado 71 59 +14.63 -2.63
AWAY # 69 Utah 67 74 +5.00 -12.00
AWAY # 23 BYU 57 91 -2.96 -31.04
HOME # 99 Oklahoma St. 96 64 +16.12 +15.88
AWAY # 94 Colorado 71 64 +7.63 -0.63
HOME # 7 Texas Tech 73 78 +0.83 -5.83
AWAY # 3 Houston 59 65 -10.58 +4.58
HOME # 13 Arizona 77 75 +2.36 0.588
Here is Arizona's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #360 Canisius 93 64 +36.61 -7.61
HOME #281 Old Dominion 102 44 +27.54 +30.46
AWAY # 10 Wisconsin 88 103 -4.55 -10.45
HOME # 1 Duke 55 69 -6.23 -7.77
NEUT #141 Davidson 104 71 +15.78 +17.22
NEUT # 41 Oklahoma 77 82 +5.61 -10.61
NEUT # 53 West Virginia 76 83 +6.20 -13.20
HOME #293 Southern Utah 102 66 +29.28 +6.72
NEUT # 27 UCLA 54 57 +2.29 -5.29
HOME #105 Samford 96 64 +17.94 +14.06
HOME #207 Central Michigan 94 41 +23.23 +29.77
HOME # 82 TCU 90 81 +14.18 -5.18
AWAY # 54 Cincinnati 72 67 +2.93 +2.07
AWAY # 53 West Virginia 75 56 +2.70 +16.30
HOME # 78 UCF 88 80 +14.44 -6.44
HOME # 30 Baylor 81 70 +6.74 +4.26
AWAY # 7 Texas Tech 54 70 -5.14 -10.86
AWAY # 99 Oklahoma St. 92 78 +10.56 +3.44
HOME # 94 Colorado 78 63 +15.99 -0.99
HOME # 11 Iowa St. 86 75 +2.93 +8.07
AWAY # 67 Arizona St. 81 72 +5.67 +3.33
AWAY # 23 BYU 85 74 -1.83 +12.83
HOME # 7 Texas Tech 82 73 +1.86 +7.14
AWAY # 62 Kansas St. 70 73 +5.07 -8.07
HOME # 3 Houston 58 62 -2.73 -1.27
AWAY # 30 Baylor 74 67 -0.26 +7.26
HOME # 23 BYU 95 96 +5.17 -6.17
HOME # 69 Utah 83 66 +13.33 +3.67
AWAY # 11 Iowa St. 67 84 -4.07 -12.93
HOME # 67 Arizona St. 113 100 +12.67 +0.33
AWAY # 22 Kansas 75 77 -2.36 0.412
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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- sasnak
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3 weeks 5 days ago #33625
by sasnak
It'll feel better when it stops hurting
I have lived in Wildcat land for over 30 years and in the last 20 years they have developed the worst fan base so we need to beat them soundly.We have some sport commentators from the local station in KC for the ladies tourney and then the mens. They spend half their time bitching about how the Big XII tourney should be in Vegas and how It's so cold and rainy in KC.They will spend their time and energy trying to move the tourney to Vegas even though there are like 4 teams in the proximity. This is who they are. They chant vile chants at opposing teams to the point where the AD has to apologize. They throw things on the court, they disrupt play (think K State in the 70's)
So let's welcome them to Lawrence with a big ole fashioned ass whooping.
Someone needs to remind our guys that we do not lose on Senior Day....period. Maybe some of the alum players could stop by and reiterate that to some of our players that transferred in, (I'm talking YOU, Hunter Dickinson). No excuses today, let's keep one of our streaks/records intact
So let's welcome them to Lawrence with a big ole fashioned ass whooping.
Someone needs to remind our guys that we do not lose on Senior Day....period. Maybe some of the alum players could stop by and reiterate that to some of our players that transferred in, (I'm talking YOU, Hunter Dickinson). No excuses today, let's keep one of our streaks/records intact
It'll feel better when it stops hurting
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- b82, g84 Lift the chorus...
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3 weeks 5 days ago #33626
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Hunter, Zeke, KJ and Dajuan - "seniors" on "last call" today - ALL showed up!
KU TP/RB/A
HD 33/10/01
ZM 20/04/06
KJ 12/08/03
DH 09/04/09
tot 74/26/19 for guys playing their last game in AFH
RG had 7 of the remaining points, Flory scored the other 2.
KU outrebounded AZ 36-30, and 13 were ORBs!
Good to see it!
THE SENIOR GAME STREAK IS ALIVE!
And according to ESPN KU won it's 20th game in the regular season for an NCAA record 31st straight season.
Also good to see!
Next Q is who do we play on Wednesday?
KU TP/RB/A
HD 33/10/01
ZM 20/04/06
KJ 12/08/03
DH 09/04/09
tot 74/26/19 for guys playing their last game in AFH
RG had 7 of the remaining points, Flory scored the other 2.
KU outrebounded AZ 36-30, and 13 were ORBs!
Good to see it!
THE SENIOR GAME STREAK IS ALIVE!
And according to ESPN KU won it's 20th game in the regular season for an NCAA record 31st straight season.
Also good to see!
Next Q is who do we play on Wednesday?
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
The following user(s) said Thank You: Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi
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