predictions for Houston game

I would dearly love to get revenge on the Houston Cougars for what happened in
Allen Field House.  Can this team do it?  Yes; they can beat anybody.  Will
they do it?  Hard to know; they can lose to anybody.  Even the Topeka YMCA.

Cryer seems to be the key; he's been Houston's top scorer in seven of the ten
games the Cougars have played since they escaped Allen Field House with an
unlikely win.  Can KJ shut him down the way he did Cooper Flagg?

Kansas needs to play more than 11 points above expectation in order to win the
game.  That has happened seven times this season.  Houston needs to play more
than 11 points below expectation in order to lose the game.  That has happened
only three times this season.  That's an average of five out of 29 games,
corresponding to a 17.2 percent chance of Kansas winning the game, reasonably
consistent with the other predictions.

Almost nobody is picking the Jayhawks to win.  I say almost because Dunkel is
picking Kansas to win by 1 point.  Sure would like to know why he's making
that pick.  Otherwise the predicted margins are all quite similar, as indicated
by the small scatter, which would have been even smaller if Dunkel had been
excluded.  Everybody else is in the 8 to 12 points in favor of Houston range,
with the average being 9.35 points and the scatter being 3.09 points.

Some of you may have seen how the Chiefs let their foot off the gas against
Denver in the regular season finale.  Now that Houston has wrapped up the
Big 12 championship, will the Cougars let their foot off the gas?  They are
still playing for seed in the Big Dance, plus it's Senior Night, so Kansas
won't get as much benefit as Denver did, but maybe just a little?  Enough to
help the Jayhawks eke out a win?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UH      KU      Defensive Stats      UH      KU
Points/Game         74.8    75.8     Opp Points/Game     58.0    67.7
Avg Score Margin   +16.8    +8.1     Opp Effective FG %  45.1    45.4
Assists/Game        12.8    17.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.8     8.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.3    38.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.0    26.2
Effective FG %      53.2    53.1     Blocks/Game          4.6     4.8
Off Rebound %       36.4    27.6     Steals/Game          7.8     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.271   0.239     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.6    14.0
Turnover %          12.3    14.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UH 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.23           +2.32    
inconsistency         13.92           10.32    
trend                 -0.40 ± 0.30    +0.07 ± 0.29
mental toughness      -0.29 ± 0.28     0.00 ± 0.21         
average total pts     143.48          147.32 

Common Opponents
================
There are thirteen common opponents, all in conference (Kansas has yet to play Arizona),
four of which Kansas has played twice (Kansas State, UCF, Colorado, Iowa State), and
three of which Houston has played twice (Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Texas Tech --
Houston ends the regular season with a second game against Baylor), plus the head-to-
head in Lawrence, giving us 21 scores to compare, and is it a wild comparison:

KU  +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)     KU  +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)
UH  +13 OSU on road (+17 neutral court)     UH   +9 OSU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +7 UH  on road (+11 neutral court)     KU  +19 UH  on road (+23 neutral court)

KU  -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court)
UH  +31 BYU at home (+27 neutral court)
KU  -61 UH  on road (-57 neutral court)

KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
UH  +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court)
KU   -2 UH  on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU   -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU  +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
UH  +30 KSU on road (+34 neutral court)     UH  +30 KSU on road (+34 neutral court)
KU  -42 UH  on road (-38 neutral court)     KU  -32 UH  on road (-28 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)     KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
UH  +16 WVU at home (+12 neutral court)     UH  +14 WVU on road (+18 neutral court)
KU  -21 UH  on road (-17 neutral court)     KU  -27 UH  on road (-23 neutral court)

KU  +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court)     KU   +4 UCF at home (  0 neutral court)
UH   +1 UCF on road ( +5 neutral court)     UH   +1 UCF on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU  +46 UH  on road (+50 neutral court)     KU   -9 UH  on road ( -5 neutral court)

KU   -7 UU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
UH  +34 UU  at home (+30 neutral court)
KU  -37 UH  on road (-33 neutral court)

KU   -5 TTU at home ( -9 neutral court)     KU   -5 TTU at home ( -9 neutral court)
UH   -1 TTU at home ( -5 neutral court)     UH   +8 TTU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU   -8 UH  on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU  -25 UH  on road (-21 neutral court)

KU   +7 CU  on road (+11 neutral court)     KU  +12 CU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
UH  +10 CU  on road (+14 neutral court)     UH  +10 CU  on road (+14 neutral court)
KU   -7 UH  on road ( -3 neutral court)     KU  -10 UH  on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU  -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)
UH  +11 BU  at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU  -18 UH  on road (-14 neutral court)

KU  +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
UH  +15 ASU on road (+19 neutral court)
KU   -8 UH  on road ( -4 neutral court)

KU  +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
UH   +9 ISU at home ( +5 neutral court)     UH   +9 ISU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +4 UH  on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU  -22 UH  on road (-18 neutral court)

KU  +14 UC  on road (+18 neutral court)
UH   +9 UC  at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +9 UH  on road (+13 neutral court)

KU   -6 UH  at home (-10 neutral court)
KU  -14 UH  on road (-10 neutral court)

The scatter is what is impressive here.  Kansas has a +46 on Houston via the UCF
comparsion, and Houston has a +61 on Kansas via the BYU comparison.  There are a
few other big ones, making the scatter a whopping 22.90 points.  Impressive indeed.
But only five of the comparisons favor Kansas, while sixteen favor Houston, with
the average being 12.29 points in favor of Houston.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       L. J. Cryer (guard)
most points        L. J. Cryer (guard)
most rebounds      J'Wan Roberts (forward)
most assists       Milos Uzan (guard)
most steals        Emanuel Sharp (guard)
most blocks        Joseph Tugler (forward)
most turnovers     J'Wan Roberts (forward)
most fouls         Joseph Tugler (forward)

Reserve guard Ramon Walker Jr. is out with a hand injury; he is ninth on the
team in minutes per game played and averages just 2 points and 2 rebounds per
game.

                                                          19-10          25-4 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Houston
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -8.00   62   70       20       # 23   #  8    #  2   # 30
Pomeroy                -11.04   60   71       14.8     # 21   # 13    #  3   # 30
Greenfield              -9.00   62   71                # 16   # 10    #  3   #  5
Dunkel                  +1.00   65   64                # 31           #  3
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -9.50   61   70                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -9.81   59   69       18.0     # 20   # 12    #  3   #  5
Seven Overtimes        -10.00   64   74       20       # 35   # 15    #  4   # 22
Real Time              -11.00   65   76       31.0     # 33   #  9    #  6   # 28
DPPI                                                   # 18   #  8    #      #    
ESPN BPI               -10.80                 15.0     # 12   #  5    #  2   # 11
Whitlock                -9.67                          # 21   #  8    #  3   # 22
Colley Matrix           -9.70                          # 27   # 13    #  3   # 19
Donchess                -9.40   63   72.5     19.2     # 27   # 12    #  3   # 22
Haslametrics           -12.00   60   72                # 17           #  2
INCCStats               -9.00   60   69       18.      # 18           #  3
common opponents       -12.29             
NCAA NET                                               # 20           #  3
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 22           #  4
Pomeroy offense                                        # 59           #  8
Pomeroy defense                                        #  6           #  3
Pomeroy tempo                                          #112           #361
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -9.35   61.9 70.8     19.5
scatter                  3.09    2.1  3.1      5.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #311 Howard                      87  57   +28.67    +1.33
HOME   # 39 North Carolina              92  89    +7.79    -4.79
NEUT   #  9 Michigan St.                77  69    -2.53   +10.53
HOME   #197 Oakland                     78  57   +20.21    +0.79
HOME   #108 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +15.52    +2.48
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        75  72   -10.61   +13.61
HOME   #149 Furman                      86  51   +18.11   +16.89
AWAY   # 37 Creighton                   63  76    -0.00   -13.00
AWAY   # 12 Missouri                    67  76    -5.29    -3.71
HOME   #126 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.73    -1.73
HOME   #212 Brown                       87  53   +21.31   +12.69
HOME   # 53 West Virginia               61  62    +8.44    -9.44
AWAY   # 80 UCF                         99  48    +5.88   +45.12
HOME   # 65 Arizona St.                 74  55   +11.06    +7.94
AWAY   # 50 Cincinnati                  54  40    +1.19   +12.81
AWAY   # 11 Iowa St.                    57  74    -5.72   -11.28
HOME   # 66 Kansas St.                  84  74   +10.99    -0.99
AWAY   # 82 TCU                         74  61    +5.61    +7.39
HOME   #  3 Houston                     86  92    -4.04    -1.96
HOME   # 80 UCF                         91  87   +12.88    -8.88
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                      70  81    -1.59    -9.41
HOME   # 11 Iowa St.                    69  52    +1.28   +15.72
AWAY   # 66 Kansas St.                  73  81    +3.99   -11.99
HOME   # 95 Colorado                    71  59   +14.33    -2.33
AWAY   # 68 Utah                        67  74    +4.55   -11.55
AWAY   # 25 BYU                         57  91    -2.89   -31.11
HOME   # 97 Oklahoma St.                96  64   +15.52   +16.48
AWAY   # 95 Colorado                    71  64    +7.33    -0.33
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  73  78    +0.58    -5.58
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     60  71   -11.04             0.148
HOME   # 13 Arizona                     76  74    +2.08             0.578

Here is Houston's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #246 Jackson St.                 97  40   +29.50   +27.50
NEUT   #  2 Auburn                      69  74    -1.36    -3.64
HOME   #310 Louisiana                   91  45   +32.30   +13.70
HOME   #224 Hofstra                     80  44   +26.26    +9.74
NEUT   #  6 Alabama                     80  85    +4.08    -9.08
NEUT   # 94 Notre Dame                  65  54   +16.18    -5.18
NEUT   # 41 San Diego St.               70  73   +10.99   -13.99
HOME   # 70 Butler                      79  51   +18.06    +9.94
HOME   #109 Troy                        62  42   +21.44    -1.44
HOME   #250 Toledo                      78  49   +29.55    -0.55
HOME   #169 Texas A&M Corpus Christi    87  51   +25.36   +10.64
AWAY   # 97 Oklahoma St.                60  47   +15.11    -2.11
HOME   # 25 BYU                         86  55   +11.40   +19.60
HOME   # 82 TCU                         65  46   +18.89    +0.11
AWAY   # 66 Kansas St.                  87  57   +10.54   +19.46
HOME   # 53 West Virginia               70  54   +14.87    +1.13
AWAY   # 80 UCF                         69  68   +12.84   -11.84
HOME   # 68 Utah                        70  36   +18.21   +15.79
AWAY   # 21 Kansas                      92  86    +4.04    +1.96
AWAY   # 53 West Virginia               63  49    +7.87    +6.13
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  81  82    +8.09    -9.09
HOME   # 97 Oklahoma St.                72  63   +22.11   -13.11
AWAY   # 95 Colorado                    69  59   +13.50    -3.50
HOME   # 30 Baylor                      76  65   +12.32    -1.32
AWAY   # 13 Arizona                     62  58    +2.96    +1.04
AWAY   # 65 Arizona St.                 80  65   +10.78    +4.22
HOME   # 11 Iowa St.                    68  59    +9.07    -0.07
AWAY   #  7 Texas Tech                  69  61    +1.09    +6.91
HOME   # 50 Cincinnati                  73  64   +14.79    -5.79
HOME   # 21 Kansas                      71  60   +11.04             0.852
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                      69  63    +5.32             0.692