predictions for Texas Tech game

Texas Tech has had a bit of a roller coaster conference season.  They started out
by losing at home to UCF, picked up two road wins in Utah, then came home and lost
to Iowa State.  Then they rattled off seven straight wins, but have split the last
six games while battling various injuries.  I suppose now is as good a time to be
playing them as any.  A Jayhawk victory would help in the human polls, the Big
Dance seeding, and keep Kansas in the hunt for a double bye in the Big 12
Tournament, whereas a loss would virtually guarantee playing on Wednesday in
Kansas City.  Regardless of the outcome, the Red Raiders are ranked highly enough
that the contest ought to help the Kansas strength of schedule (meanwhile, Baylor
has a home game with Oklahoma State, so expect the Bears to lose their grip on the
toughest schedule among conference members; I expect Arizona to take over the top
spot following a road game in Ames, and Arizona State might stay ahead of Kansas
by virtue of a road game in Salt Lake City).

Much to my surprise, considering Kansas' recent woes, all but one of the usual
prognosticators are picking Kansas to win the game.  The one naysayer is Donchess,
who is picking Texas Tech by 1 point.  The most optimistic prediction comes from
Dunkel, who is picking the Jayhawks by 8 points.  Maybe that is based on some
injury update for the Red Raiders.  The average of sixteen predictions gives Kansas
a 2.6 point margin, with a scatter of 2.2 points.  Considering the huge scatter in
the common opponents comparison, it's rather amazing that the average of those
eighteen comparisons falls within a point of the average of the sixteen predictions.

It's a new season, and Kansas is 2-0.  Let's make it 3-0.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      TTU     KU      Defensive Stats      TTU     KU
Points/Game         80.7    75.9     Opp Points/Game     66.6    67.3
Avg Score Margin   +14.1    +8.6     Opp Effective FG %  47.5    45.0
Assists/Game        16.7    17.9     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.0     8.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.0    38.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.5    26.3
Effective FG %      55.6    53.2     Blocks/Game          2.9     5.0
Off Rebound %       33.1    27.4     Steals/Game          6.9     6.5
FTA/FGA            0.299   0.238     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.6    14.1
Turnover %          13.5    14.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU              TTU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.29           +1.72    
inconsistency         14.12           12.01    
trend                 -0.41 ± 0.33    +0.07 ± 0.29
mental toughness      -0.29 ± 0.29     0.00 ± 0.21         
average total pts     143.21          147.32 

Common Opponents
================
There are twelve common opponents, all in conference, three of which Kansas has played
twice (UCF, Iowa State, Kansas State) and three of which Texas Tech has played twice
(Oklahoma State, TCU, Houston), giving us eighteen scores to compare:

KU   +4 UCF at home (  0 neutral court)     KU  +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court)
TTU  -4 UCF at home ( -8 neutral court)     TTU  -4 UCF at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU  +12 TTU at home ( +8 neutral court)     KU  +67 TTU at home (+63 neutral court)

KU   -7 UU  on road ( -3 neutral court)
TTU +28 UU  on road (+32 neutral court)
KU  -31 TTU at home (-35 neutral court)

KU  -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court)
TTU  +5 BYU on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU  -35 TTU at home (-39 neutral court)

KU  +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)     KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
TTU  -1 ISU at home ( -5 neutral court)     TTU  -1 ISU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +22 TTU at home (+18 neutral court)     KU   -4 TTU at home ( -8 neutral court)

KU   -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU  +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
TTU  +4 KSU on road ( +8 neutral court)     TTU  +4 KSU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU   -8 TTU at home (-12 neutral court)     KU   +2 TTU at home ( -2 neutral court)

KU  +14 UC  on road (+18 neutral court)
TTU +10 UC  on road (+14 neutral court)
KU   +8 TTU at home ( +4 neutral court)

KU  +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)     KU  +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)
TTU +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral court)     TTU +38 OSU on road (+42 neutral court)
KU  +26 TTU at home (+22 neutral court)     KU  -10 TTU at home (-14 neutral court)

KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)     KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
TTU +14 TCU at home (+10 neutral court)     TTU  -3 TCU on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +11 TTU at home ( +7 neutral court)     KU  +20 TTU at home (+16 neutral court)

KU   -6 UH  at home (-10 neutral court)     KU   -6 UH  at home (-10 neutral court)
TTU  +1 UH  on road ( +5 neutral court)     TTU  -8 UH  at home (-12 neutral court)
KU  -11 TTU at home (-15 neutral court)     KU   +6 TTU at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU  -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)
TTU +14 BU  at home (+10 neutral court)
KU  -13 TTU at home (-17 neutral court)

KU  +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
TTU  +5 ASU at home ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +18 TTU at home (+14 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
TTU +22 WVU at home (+18 neutral court)
KU  -19 TTU at home (-23 neutral court)

Texas Tech has yet to play Colorado, and Kansas has yet to play Arizona.
Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas, while eight favor Texas Tech.  The
average is 3.39 points in favor of Kansas, with a whopping scatter of
23.70 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Chance McMillian (guard)
most points        JT Toppin (forward)
most rebounds      JT Toppin (forward)
most assists       Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most steals        Elijah Hawkins (guard)
most blocks        JT Toppin (forward)
most turnovers     Darrion Williams (forward)
most fouls         Elijah Hawkins (guard)

Tech is beat up right now.  Williams and McMillian are both dealing with lower leg
injuries and are questionable for the game.  Reserve forward Eemeli Yalaho has an
upper body injury and is also questionable; he's tenth on the team in minutes per
game and averages 3 points per game.  Reserve forward Devan Cambridge is out
for personal reasons.  Reserve guard Jazz Henderson is out with a lower body injury.

                                                          19-9           21-7 
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +3.00   73   70       59       # 19   #  4    # 13   # 43
Pomeroy                 +1.11   73   72       54.2     # 20   # 16    #  7   # 54
Greenfield              +4.50   75   70                # 15   # 11    # 10   # 20
Dunkel                  +8.00   80   72                # 27           # 12
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   74   70                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +1.68   72   70       55.9     # 19   # 13    #  7   # 20
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   74   72       53       # 36   # 11    # 26   # 66
Real Time               +5.00   77   72       58.1     # 26   # 13    # 23   # 65
DPPI                    +1.00   73   72       52.6     # 18   #  8    # 11   # 49 
ESPN BPI                +2.60                 60.3     # 11   #  5    #  9   # 53
Whitlock                +1.22                          # 21   #  8    #  8   # 51
Colley Matrix           +2.39                          # 28   # 10    # 22   # 54
Donchess                -1.20   72   74       47.5     # 28   # 12    # 12   # 51
Haslametrics            +0.73   72   71                # 18           #  8
INCCStats               +1.00   72   71       53.3     # 20           # 91
common opponents        +3.39             
NCAA NET                                               # 19           #  7
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 22           # 11
Pomeroy offense                                        # 60           # 11
Pomeroy defense                                        #  5           # 27
Pomeroy tempo                                          #110           #272
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2.56   73.9 71.3     54.9
scatter                  2.18    2.4  1.2      3.9

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #311 Howard                      87  57   +28.66    +1.34
HOME   # 42 North Carolina              92  89    +8.08    -5.08
NEUT   # 10 Michigan St.                77  69    -2.04   +10.04
HOME   #193 Oakland                     78  57   +20.14    +0.86
HOME   #109 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +16.03    +1.97
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        75  72   -10.17   +13.17
HOME   #151 Furman                      86  51   +18.46   +16.54
AWAY   # 33 Creighton                   63  76    -0.61   -12.39
AWAY   # 11 Missouri                    67  76    -5.36    -3.64
HOME   #116 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.10    -1.10
HOME   #197 Brown                       87  53   +20.86   +13.14
HOME   # 50 West Virginia               61  62    +8.25    -9.25
AWAY   # 79 UCF                         99  48    +5.93   +45.07
HOME   # 60 Arizona St.                 74  55   +10.58    +8.42
AWAY   # 53 Cincinnati                  54  40    +1.77   +12.23
AWAY   # 13 Iowa St.                    57  74    -5.03   -11.97
HOME   # 67 Kansas St.                  84  74   +11.25    -1.25
AWAY   # 85 TCU                         74  61    +6.12    +6.88
HOME   #  3 Houston                     86  92    -4.13    -1.87
HOME   # 79 UCF                         91  87   +12.93    -8.93
AWAY   # 30 Baylor                      70  81    -1.53    -9.47
HOME   # 13 Iowa St.                    69  52    +1.97   +15.03
AWAY   # 67 Kansas St.                  73  81    +4.25   -12.25
HOME   # 94 Colorado                    71  59   +14.52    -2.52
AWAY   # 82 Utah                        67  74    +5.66   -12.66
AWAY   # 27 BYU                         57  91    -2.28   -31.72
HOME   #101 Oklahoma St.                96  64   +15.92   +16.08
AWAY   # 94 Colorado                    71  64    +7.52    -0.52
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  73  72    +1.11             0.542
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     59  70   -11.13             0.146
HOME   # 12 Arizona                     76  74    +1.87             0.570

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #281 Bethune Cookman             94  61   +28.01    +4.99
HOME   #242 Northwestern St.            86  65   +24.27    -3.27
HOME   #186 Wyoming                     96  49   +21.59   +25.41
HOME   #363 Arkansas Pine Bluff         98  64   +41.67    -7.67
NEUT   # 77 Saint Joseph's              77  78   +10.87   -11.87
NEUT   #123 Syracuse                    79  74   +15.62   -10.62
HOME   #138 Northern Colorado           89  64   +20.07    +4.93
HOME   #137 DePaul                      76  62   +19.51    -5.51
NEUT   # 21 Texas A&M                   67  72    +2.38    -7.38
HOME   #317 Oral Roberts                86  50   +30.22    +5.78
HOME   #184 Lamar                      101  57   +21.64   +22.36
HOME   # 79 UCF                         83  87   +15.04   -19.04
AWAY   # 82 Utah                        93  65    +7.66   +20.34
AWAY   # 27 BYU                         72  67    +0.00    +5.00
HOME   # 13 Iowa St.                    84  85    +4.43    -5.43
AWAY   # 67 Kansas St.                  61  57    +6.25    -2.25
HOME   # 12 Arizona                     70  54    +4.38   +11.62
AWAY   # 53 Cincinnati                  81  71    +3.80    +6.20
HOME   #101 Oklahoma St.                64  54   +17.88    -7.88
HOME   # 85 TCU                         71  57   +15.01    -1.01
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     82  81    -8.65    +9.65
HOME   # 30 Baylor                      73  59    +7.64    +6.36
AWAY   # 12 Arizona                     73  82    -2.62    -6.38
HOME   # 60 Arizona St.                111 106   +12.66    -7.66
AWAY   #101 Oklahoma St.                93  55   +10.88   +27.12
AWAY   # 85 TCU                         66  69    +8.01   -11.01
HOME   # 50 West Virginia               73  51   +10.26   +11.74
HOME   #  3 Houston                     61  69    -1.65    -6.35
AWAY   # 20 Kansas                      72  73    -1.11             0.458
HOME   # 94 Colorado                    80  63   +16.37             0.939
AWAY   # 60 Arizona St.                 76  71    +5.66             0.704