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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Colorado game
- asteroid
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4 days 2 hours ago #33582
by asteroid
Colorado beat Baylor over the weekend, giving the Buffaloes a two-game home
winning streak. They have also played five consecutive games above expectation.
On the other hand, Colorado is a very consistent team, and in only four games
have they played enough above expectation to overcome a 7.84 point predicted
margin. Meanwhile, Kansas can lose to anybody, especially on the road. The
Jayhawks have played below expectation by more than 7.84 points on eight
occasions, with five of those occurring in the last eight games. Kansas
started out the season quite consistently, but after a 51 points blowout win
over UCF and a humiliating 34 point loss to BYU, the Jayhawks are 6.6 points
more inconsistent than the Buffaloes.
As you surmised, the average of the various prognostications is 7.84 points in
favor of Kansas. The common opponents comparison provides the most optimistic
prediction, with Kansas favored by 12.4 points. Massey in the pessimist,
picking Kansas to win by only 4 points.
It's the easiest remaining game in the regular season, as the Jayhawks end the
regular season against the top three teams in the conference. As the saying
goes, get while the gettin' is good.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats CU KU Defensive Stats CU KU
Points/Game 70.4 76.1 Opp Points/Game 72.0 67.4
Avg Score Margin -1.5 +8.6 Opp Effective FG % 50.0 45.1
Assists/Game 14.5 17.9 Off Rebounds/Gm 7.7 8.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.7 38.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.9 26.4
Effective FG % 51.3 53.2 Blocks/Game 3.9 4.9
Off Rebound % 26.4 27.8 Steals/Game 7.2 6.4
FTA/FGA 0.372 0.228 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.6 14.1
Turnover % 18.9 14.5
My Stats Comparison KU CU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.35 +0.31
inconsistency 14.36 7.77
trend -0.43 ± 0.35 -0.05 ± 0.20
mental toughness -0.30 ± 0.29 -0.22 ± 0.14
average total pts 143.52 142.41
Common Opponents
================
There are twelve common opponents, eleven in conference, plus Michigan State, one
of which Colorado has played twice (Arizona State), one of which both have played
twice (UCF), and one of which Colorado has played THREE times (Iowa State) by
virtue of a tournament that had its field set back when Colorado was still in the
Pac 12. For the Iowa State common opponent, I will do the usual home-home and
road-road permutations, and then for Colorado's neutral court game against Iowa
State, I'll choose to compare that result against both the home and road games
that Kansas played against Iowa State. And we have the head-to-head game in
Lawrence, giving us eighteen scores to compare:
KU +8 MSU neutral ( +8 neutral court)
CU -16 MSU neutral (-16 neutral court)
KU +20 CU on road (+24 neutral court)
KU +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court) KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
CU -28 ISU neutral (-28 neutral court) CU -28 ISU neutral (-28 neutral court)
KU +37 CU on road (+41 neutral court) KU +11 CU on road (+15 neutral court)
KU +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court) KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
CU -10 ISU at home (-14 neutral court) CU -14 ISU on road (-10 neutral court)
KU +23 CU on road (+27 neutral court) KU -7 CU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court) KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
CU -20 ASU on road (-16 neutral court) CU -2 ASU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +27 CU on road (+31 neutral court) KU +17 CU on road (+21 neutral court)
KU +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court) KU +4 UCF at home ( 0 neutral court)
CU -1 UCF on road ( +3 neutral court) CU +13 UCF at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU +48 CU on road (+52 neutral court) KU -13 CU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
CU -8 WVU at home (-12 neutral court)
KU +3 CU on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU +14 UC on road (+18 neutral court)
CU -6 UC at home (-10 neutral court)
KU +24 CU on road (+28 neutral court)
KU +32 OSU at home (+28 neutral court)
CU -10 OSU on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU +30 CU on road (+34 neutral court)
KU -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court)
CU -16 BYU at home (-20 neutral court)
KU -14 CU on road (-10 neutral court)
KU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
CU -11 TCU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU +20 CU on road (+24 neutral court)
KU -7 UU on road ( -3 neutral court)
CU -13 UU on road ( -9 neutral court)
KU +2 CU on road ( +6 neutral court)
KU -6 UH at home (-10 neutral court)
CU -10 UH at home (-14 neutral court)
KU 0 CU on road ( +4 neutral court)
KU -11 BU on road ( -7 neutral court)
CU +2 BU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU -9 CU on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU +12 CU at home ( +8 neutral court)
KU +4 CU on road ( +8 neutral court)
Thirteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, four favor Colorado, and one is a wash.
The average is 12.4 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 17.8 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Julian Hammond III (guard)
most points Julian Hammond III (guard)
most rebounds Trevor Baskin (forward)
most assists Julian Hammond III (guard)
most steals Julian Hammond III (guard)
most blocks Bangot Dak (forward)
most turnovers Julian Hammond III (guard)
most fouls Elijah Malone (center)
Guard Andrew Crawford is sitting out with a redshirt.
18-9 11-16
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Colorado
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +4.00 72 68 65 # 21 # 10 # 80 # 24
Pomeroy +7.50 74 67 76.1 # 21 # 13 # 92 # 29
Greenfield +6.50 73.5 67 # 14 # 9 # 89 # 56
Dunkel +9.50 78 69 # 27 #130
Vegas (via Dunkel) +6.50 73 67
Dolphin Predictive +7.32 73 66 74.4 # 18 # 13 # 84 # 54
Seven Overtimes +7.00 75 68 74 # 32 # 11 #205 # 20
Real Time +10.00 77 67 66.5 # 28 # 12 #183 # 39
DPPI +7.10 75 68 69.9 # 17 # 7 # 92 # 26
ESPN BPI +8.90 80.6 # 11 # 6 # 92 # 31
Whitlock +7.53 # 20 # 6 #109 # 37
Colley Matrix +8.05 # 28 # 10 #145 # 40
Donchess +5.70 75 69 68.8 # 28 # 8 # 95 # 36
Haslametrics +9.41 75 65 # 16 # 91
INCCStats +8.00 74 66 77.4 # 18 # 89
common opponents +12.39
NCAA NET # 20 # 94
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 23 #105
Pomeroy offense # 56 #152
Pomeroy defense # 5 # 65
Pomeroy tempo #110 #183
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +7.84 74.5 67.3 72.5
scatter 1.94 1.7 1.2 5.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #301 Howard 87 57 +27.89 +2.11
HOME # 44 North Carolina 92 89 +8.38 -5.38
NEUT # 10 Michigan St. 77 69 -1.77 +9.77
HOME #194 Oakland 78 57 +20.17 +0.83
HOME #126 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +17.05 +0.95
NEUT # 1 Duke 75 72 -9.67 +12.67
HOME #160 Furman 86 51 +18.79 +16.21
AWAY # 32 Creighton 63 76 -0.82 -12.18
AWAY # 14 Missouri 67 76 -4.67 -4.33
HOME #106 N.C. State 75 60 +15.64 -0.64
HOME #202 Brown 87 53 +21.10 +12.90
HOME # 51 West Virginia 61 62 +8.55 -9.55
AWAY # 77 UCF 99 48 +5.85 +45.15
HOME # 58 Arizona St. 74 55 +10.19 +8.81
AWAY # 52 Cincinnati 54 40 +1.77 +12.23
AWAY # 8 Iowa St. 57 74 -5.79 -11.21
HOME # 66 Kansas St. 84 74 +11.03 -1.03
AWAY # 84 TCU 74 61 +5.69 +7.31
HOME # 3 Houston 86 92 -3.67 -2.33
HOME # 77 UCF 91 87 +12.85 -8.85
AWAY # 30 Baylor 70 81 -1.66 -9.34
HOME # 8 Iowa St. 69 52 +1.21 +15.79
AWAY # 66 Kansas St. 73 81 +4.03 -12.03
HOME # 92 Colorado 71 59 +14.50 -2.50
AWAY # 78 Utah 67 74 +5.51 -12.51
AWAY # 27 BYU 57 91 -2.08 -31.92
HOME #103 Oklahoma St. 96 64 +16.55 +15.45
AWAY # 92 Colorado 74 67 +7.50 0.761
HOME # 7 Texas Tech 73 72 +0.85 0.532
AWAY # 3 Houston 60 70 -10.67 0.157
HOME # 12 Arizona 76 75 +1.94 0.573
Here is Colorado's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #267 Eastern Washington 76 56 +14.09 +5.91
HOME #135 Northern Colorado 90 88 +6.85 -4.85
HOME #342 Cal St. Fullerton 83 53 +20.19 +9.81
HOME #271 Harvard 88 66 +14.09 +7.91
NEUT # 10 Michigan St. 56 72 -12.54 -3.46
NEUT # 38 Connecticut 73 72 -6.48 +7.48
NEUT # 8 Iowa St. 71 99 -13.26 -14.74
HOME #276 Pacific 75 66 +14.50 -5.50
HOME # 63 Colorado St. 72 55 +0.10 +16.90
HOME #105 South Dakota St. 81 70 +5.07 +5.93
HOME #341 Bellarmine 79 55 +19.57 +4.43
HOME # 8 Iowa St. 69 79 -9.76 -0.24
AWAY # 58 Arizona St. 61 81 -7.90 -12.10
AWAY # 77 UCF 74 75 -5.85 +4.85
HOME # 51 West Virginia 70 78 -1.83 -6.17
HOME # 52 Cincinnati 62 68 -1.80 -4.20
AWAY #103 Oklahoma St. 73 83 -2.09 -7.91
HOME # 27 BYU 67 83 -5.83 -10.17
AWAY # 12 Arizona 63 78 -16.29 +1.29
HOME # 58 Arizona St. 68 70 -0.90 -1.10
AWAY # 84 TCU 57 68 -5.15 -5.85
AWAY # 78 Utah 59 72 -5.68 -7.32
HOME # 3 Houston 59 69 -13.24 +3.24
AWAY # 21 Kansas 59 71 -14.50 +2.50
HOME # 77 UCF 76 63 +1.15 +11.85
AWAY # 8 Iowa St. 65 79 -16.76 +2.76
HOME # 30 Baylor 76 74 -5.14 +7.14
HOME # 21 Kansas 67 74 -7.50 0.239
AWAY # 66 Kansas St. 67 74 -6.89 0.257
AWAY # 7 Texas Tech 63 80 -16.61 0.058
HOME # 84 TCU 68 66 +1.85 0.570
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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