×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Oklahoma State game
- asteroid
-
Topic Author
- Offline
- Platinum Member
-
Less
More
- Posts: 642
- Thank you received: 3402
6 days 4 hours ago #33573
by asteroid
Is Oklahoma State better than the Topeka YMCA? The reason I ask is because
this Jayhawk team couldn't beat the Topeka YMCA right now. Four consecutive
games below expectation, seven of the last eight, and nine of the last eleven.
The negative trend is statistically significant. After seeing a four sigma
event against UCF, what were the odd of seeing a three sigma event this season?
I guess something had to counterbalance the UCF result.
Dunkel is the pessimist, giving the Jayhawks only a 7.5 point margin. Real Time
is the optimist, giving Kansas a 22 point margin, but then again, Real Time is
known for using an enormous home court advantage. The average is 13.7 points,
with a scatter of 3.4 points.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats OSU KU Defensive Stats OSU KU
Points/Game 73.4 75.3 Opp Points/Game 76.0 67.6
Avg Score Margin -2.6 +7.7 Opp Effective FG % 54.3 45.2
Assists/Game 12.7 17.7 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.2 8.7
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.3 38.6 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.0 26.3
Effective FG % 48.7 52.8 Blocks/Game 2.7 4.8
Off Rebound % 29.4 27.1 Steals/Game 8.5 6.1
FTA/FGA 0.434 0.234 Personal Fouls/Gm 19.7 14.1
Turnover % 16.2 14.3
My Stats Comparison KU OSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.06 -0.55
inconsistency 14.31 10.81
trend -0.61 ± 0.36 +0.16 ± 0.29
mental toughness -0.27 ± 0.30 +0.01 ± 0.21
average total pts 142.88 149.38
Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, all in conference, one of which Kansas has played
twice (UCF), two of which OSU has played twice (Houston, Utah), and one of which
both have played twice (Kansas State), for which I'll use only the home-home and
road-road permutations, giving us thirteen scores to compare:
KU -6 UH at home (-10 neutral court) KU -6 UH at home (-10 neutral court)
OSU -13 UH at home (-17 neutral court) OSU -9 UH on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU +12 OSU at home ( +7 neutral court) KU -1 OSU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
OSU -19 WVU on road (-15 neutral court)
KU +14 OSU at home (+10 neutral court)
KU +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court) KU -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court)
OSU +13 KSU at home ( +9 neutral court) OSU -28 KSU on road (-24 neutral court)
KU +1 OSU at home ( +1 neutral court) KU +24 OSU at home (+20 neutral court)
KU -7 UU on road ( -3 neutral court) KU -7 UU on road ( -3 neutral court)
OSU -21 UU on road (-17 neutral court) OSU +9 UU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +18 OSU at home (+14 neutral court) KU -4 OSU at home ( -8 neutral court)
KU -34 BYU on road (-30 neutral court)
OSU -16 BYU on road (-12 neutral court)
KU -14 OSU at home (-18 neutral court)
KU +12 CU at home ( +8 neutral court)
OSU +10 CU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +6 OSU at home ( +2 neutral court)
KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
OSU +13 ASU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU +10 OSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
OSU -1 TCU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU +18 OSU at home (+14 neutral court)
KU +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court) KU +4 UCF at home ( 0 neutral court)
OSU +9 UCF at home ( +5 neutral court) OSU +9 UCF at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU +54 OSU at home (+50 neutral court) KU -1 OSU at home ( -5 neutral court)
Nine of the comparisons favor Kansas, while four favor OSU. The average is
10.5 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 16.8 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Bryce Thompson (guard)
most points Marchelus Avery (forward)
most rebounds Abou Ousmane (forward)
most assists Arturo Dean (guard)
most steals Arturo Dean (guard)
most blocks Abou Ousmane (forward)
most turnovers Arturo Dean (guard)
most fouls Abou Ousmane (forward)
17-9 13-13
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Oklahoma St.
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +11.00 78 67 85 # 21 # 6 # 80 # 37
Pomeroy +15.82 83 67 93.3 # 22 # 10 #101 # 48
Greenfield +14.50 82 67.5 # 17 # 9 # 97 # 66
Dunkel +7.50 75 68 # 30 #117
Vegas (via Dunkel) +13.50 82 68
Dolphin Predictive +15.03 81 66 90.4 # 26 # 11 # 94 # 67
Seven Overtimes +10.00 78 68 53 # 36 # 8 #149 # 26
Real Time +22.00 83 61 84.0 # 30 # 7 #153 # 82
DPPI +15.00 81 66 85.3 # 19 # 5 # 98 # 51
ESPN BPI +16.80 93.6 # 11 # 4 #104 # 33
Whitlock +14.71 # 20 # 6 #111 # 48
Colley Matrix +14.17 # 28 # 9 #129 # 56
Donchess +10.70 79 68 85.1 # 28 # 9 # 91 # 45
Haslametrics +15.53 81 66 # 22 # 97
INCCStats +13.00 81 68 90.0 # 20 # 91
common opponents +10.54
NCAA NET # 21 # 98
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 19 #104
Pomeroy offense # 59 #136
Pomeroy defense # 6 # 98
Pomeroy tempo #118 # 28
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +13.74 80.3 66.7 84.4
scatter 3.37 2.4 2.0 12.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 20-11:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #305 Howard 87 57 +28.00 +2.00
HOME # 44 North Carolina 92 89 +8.31 -5.31
NEUT # 11 Michigan St. 77 69 -2.18 +10.18
HOME #196 Oakland 78 57 +19.95 +1.05
HOME #113 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +16.18 +1.82
NEUT # 1 Duke 75 72 -8.79 +11.79
HOME #154 Furman 86 51 +18.24 +16.76
AWAY # 33 Creighton 63 76 -1.09 -11.91
AWAY # 13 Missouri 67 76 -5.35 -3.65
HOME #114 N.C. State 75 60 +16.01 -1.01
HOME #199 Brown 87 53 +20.63 +13.37
HOME # 46 West Virginia 61 62 +7.91 -8.91
AWAY # 77 UCF 99 48 +5.59 +45.41
HOME # 63 Arizona St. 74 55 +10.70 +8.30
AWAY # 54 Cincinnati 54 40 +1.71 +12.29
AWAY # 9 Iowa St. 57 74 -6.00 -11.00
HOME # 59 Kansas St. 84 74 +10.16 -0.16
AWAY # 83 TCU 74 61 +5.24 +7.76
HOME # 3 Houston 86 92 -3.81 -2.19
HOME # 77 UCF 91 87 +12.59 -8.59
AWAY # 29 Baylor 70 81 -2.19 -8.81
HOME # 9 Iowa St. 69 52 +1.00 +16.00
AWAY # 59 Kansas St. 73 81 +3.16 -11.16
HOME # 96 Colorado 71 59 +14.48 -2.48
AWAY # 75 Utah 67 74 +5.12 -12.12
AWAY # 30 BYU 57 91 -2.08 -31.92
HOME #101 Oklahoma St. 83 67 +15.82 0.933
AWAY # 96 Colorado 74 66 +7.48 0.760
HOME # 8 Texas Tech 73 72 +0.92 0.535
AWAY # 3 Houston 60 71 -10.81 0.154
HOME # 12 Arizona 75 74 +1.37 0.552
Here is Oklahoma State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #335 Green Bay 89 76 +19.46 -6.46
HOME #115 St. Thomas 80 71 +4.85 +4.15
HOME #182 Southern Illinois 85 78 +8.80 -1.80
NEUT #106 Florida Atlantic 78 86 +0.51 -8.51
NEUT #174 Miami FL 80 74 +4.85 +1.15
NEUT # 74 Nevada 78 90 -3.26 -8.74
AWAY #274 Tulsa 76 55 +6.86 +14.14
AWAY #208 Seton Hall 85 76 +2.80 +6.20
NEUT # 50 Oklahoma 65 80 -7.05 -7.95
HOME #289 Tarleton St. 66 61 +14.67 -9.67
HOME #325 Oral Roberts 86 74 +18.03 -6.03
HOME # 3 Houston 47 60 -15.07 +2.07
AWAY # 46 West Virginia 50 69 -10.49 -8.51
HOME # 59 Kansas St. 79 66 -1.71 +14.71
AWAY # 75 Utah 62 83 -6.95 -14.05
AWAY # 30 BYU 69 85 -14.07 -1.93
HOME # 96 Colorado 83 73 +2.80 +7.20
HOME # 12 Arizona 78 92 -11.33 -2.67
AWAY # 8 Texas Tech 54 64 -17.97 +7.97
AWAY # 59 Kansas St. 57 85 -8.71 -19.29
HOME # 75 Utah 81 72 +0.05 +8.95
AWAY # 3 Houston 63 72 -22.07 +13.07
HOME # 63 Arizona St. 86 73 -1.37 +14.37
AWAY # 83 TCU 72 73 -6.42 +5.42
HOME # 8 Texas Tech 55 93 -10.97 -27.03
HOME # 77 UCF 104 95 -0.03 +9.03
AWAY # 22 Kansas 67 83 -15.82 0.067
HOME # 9 Iowa St. 72 83 -11.43 0.140
AWAY # 29 Baylor 70 84 -13.85 0.095
AWAY # 77 UCF 80 87 -7.03 0.253
HOME # 54 Cincinnati 70 73 -2.85 0.394
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page: