predictions for BYU game

The good news is that none of the Big 12 Tournament or NCAA Tournament games
are played in a true road environment.  The bad news is that Kansas still
has three road games to play, and only the game in Boulder is "easy", relatively
speaking.  The game in the Fertita Center is a likely loss, while today's game
in Provo is effectively a toss up, at least on paper.  Figuring out this
Jayhawk team when it is playing on the road has been an exercise in futility.
One can hope that they'll come out with a chip on their collective shoulders
and play like they did in Orlando, though BYU isn't as weak an opponent as UCF.

BYU has lost to every team ranked in Pomeroy's Top 25 (Houston, Texas Tech,
Arizona, and Mississippi).  The highest ranked team that BYU has beaten is
#29 Baylor.  But after Saturday's debacle in Salt Lake City, the Cougars must
be feeling that they can win this one.

All signs point to the game being a toss up, at least on paper.  The most
optimistic prognosticator is INCCStats, which is picking Kansas to win by
2 points, while the most pessimistic is Real Time, which is picking Kansas
to lose by 3 points.  The common opponents comparison, despite the inclusion
of statistically unlikely results like the Kansas game in Orlando, favors
BYU by 1.4 points.  The trend extrapolations favor BYU by a half point.
The average of the 16 predictions favors BYU by a third of a point.  Basically
we're looking at a one-possession game.  On paper.  Now, go figure out the
Jayhawks when on the road.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BYU     KU      Defensive Stats      BYU     KU
Points/Game         79.8    76.0     Opp Points/Game     69.0    66.6
Avg Score Margin   +10.8    +9.4     Opp Effective FG %  50.6    44.4
Assists/Game        16.8    17.9     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.5     8.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.4    38.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.0    26.4
Effective FG %      56.8    53.2     Blocks/Game          3.3     4.9
Off Rebound %       32.6    27.6     Steals/Game          7.0     6.2
FTA/FGA            0.299   0.240     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.6    14.3
Turnover %          15.1    14.1   

My Stats Comparison        KU              BYU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.10           +1.87    
inconsistency         12.88           12.00    
trend                 -0.35 ± 0.36    -0.11 ± 0.34
mental toughness      -0.15 ± 0.28    -0.48 ± 0.18         
average total pts     142.68          148.76 

Common Opponents
================
There are eleven common opponents, ten in conference, plus North Carolina State,
two of which Kansas has played twice (UCF and Kansas State) and one of which BYU
has played twice (Cincinnati), giving us fourteen scores to compare:

KU  +15 NCSU at home (+11 neutral court)
BYU +11 NCSU neutral (+11 neutral court)
KU   -4 BYU  on road (  0 neutral court)

KU  +19 ASU  at home (+15 neutral court)
BYU +20 ASU  at home (+16 neutral court)
KU   -5 BYU  on road ( -1 neutral court)

KU   -6 UH   at home (-10 neutral court)
BYU -31 UH   on road (-27 neutral court)
KU  +13 BYU  on road (+17 neutral court)

KU  +13 TCU  on road (+17 neutral court)
BYU  -4 TCU  on road (  0 neutral court)
KU  +13 BYU  on road (+17 neutral court)

KU   -7 UU   on road ( -3 neutral court)
BYU  -1 UU   on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU  -10 BYU  on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU  +12 CU   at home ( +8 neutral court)
BYU +16 CU   on road (+20 neutral court)
KU  -16 BYU  on road (-12 neutral court)

KU  +14 UC   on road (+18 neutral court)     KU  +14 UC  on road (+18 neutral court)
BYU +28 UC   at home (+24 neutral court)     BYU -18 UC  on road (-14 neutral court)
KU  -10 BYU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU  +28 BYU on road (+32 neutral court)

KU  -11 BU   on road ( -7 neutral court)
BYU  +4 BU   at home (  0 neutral court)
KU  -11 BYU  on road ( -7 neutral court)

KU  +51 UCF  on road (+55 neutral court)     KU   +4 UCF at home (  0 neutral court)
BYU  +6 UCF  on road (+10 neutral court)     BYU  +6 UCF on road (+10 neutral court)
KU  +41 BYU  on road (+45 neutral court)     KU  -14 BYU on road (-10 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU  at home ( -5 neutral court)
BYU  +4 WVU  on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  -17 BYU  on road (-13 neutral court)

KU  +10 KSU  at home ( +6 neutral court)     KU   -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral court)
BYU +15 KSU  at home (+11 neutral court)     BYU +15 KSU at home (+11 neutral court)
KU   -9 BYU  on road ( -5 neutral court)     KU  -19 BYU on road (-15 neutral court)

Only four of the comparisons favor Kansas, while ten favor BYU.  The average is
1.4 points in favor of BYU with a scatter of a whopping 18.2 points (the UCF game
in Orlando is rearing its ugly head again).

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Richie Saunders (forward)
most points        Richie Saunders (forward)
most rebounds      Keba Keita (center)
most assists       Egor Demin (guard)
most steals        Egor Demin (guard)
most blocks        Keba Keita (center)
most turnovers     Egor Demin (guard)
most fouls         Keba Keita (center)

                                                          17-8           17-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          BYU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +1.00   73   72       51       # 19   #  8    # 37   # 56
Pomeroy                 +0.52   74   74       52.0     # 16   # 10    # 33   # 64
Greenfield              -2.00   73   75                # 13   #  8    # 33   # 45
Dunkel                  +1.50   72   71                # 25           # 35
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.50   73   75                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +0.93   73   72       53.2     # 17   # 11    # 32   # 43
Seven Overtimes         -2.00   72   74       53       # 30   # 15    # 50   # 81
Real Time               -3.00   72   75       45.0     # 31   #  9    # 65   #109
DPPI                    -2.00   73   75       44.6     # 15   #  5    # 35   # 73 
ESPN BPI                +0.60                 52.2     # 10   #  4    # 31   # 64
Whitlock                -0.42                          # 20   #  6    # 34   # 66
Colley Matrix           +0.68                          # 28   #  9    # 53   # 69
Donchess                -0.40   74   75       49.3     # 23   # 10    # 43   # 73
Haslametrics            +1.58   74   72                # 17           # 33
INCCStats               +2.00   75   73       54.2     # 14           # 33
common opponents        -1.43             
NCAA NET                                               # 15           # 36
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 19           # 37
Pomeroy offense                                        # 47           # 15
Pomeroy defense                                        #  5           # 75
Pomeroy tempo                                          #120           #206
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -0.31   73.2 73.6     50.5
scatter                  1.63    0.9  1.5      3.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 21-10:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #304 Howard                      87  57   +29.18    +0.82
HOME   # 48 North Carolina              92  89    +9.93    -6.93
NEUT   # 17 Michigan St.                77  69    +0.20    +7.80
HOME   #190 Oakland                     78  57   +20.65    +0.35
HOME   #117 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +17.36    +0.64
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        75  72    -7.57   +10.57
HOME   #160 Furman                      86  51   +19.74   +15.26
AWAY   # 31 Creighton                   63  76    +0.06   -13.06
AWAY   # 15 Missouri                    67  76    -3.64    -5.36
HOME   #112 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.72    -1.72
HOME   #217 Brown                       87  53   +22.55   +11.45
HOME   # 46 West Virginia               61  62    +9.11   -10.11
AWAY   # 73 UCF                         99  48    +6.41   +44.59
HOME   # 61 Arizona St.                 74  55   +11.76    +7.24
AWAY   # 54 Cincinnati                  54  40    +3.07   +10.93
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    57  74    -5.02   -11.98
HOME   # 59 Kansas St.                  84  74   +11.41    -1.41
AWAY   # 84 TCU                         74  61    +6.87    +6.13
HOME   #  3 Houston                     86  92    -2.48    -3.52
HOME   # 73 UCF                         91  87   +13.41    -9.41
AWAY   # 29 Baylor                      70  81    -0.89   -10.11
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    69  52    +1.98   +15.02
AWAY   # 59 Kansas St.                  73  81    +4.41   -12.41
HOME   # 97 Colorado                    71  59   +15.90    -3.90
AWAY   # 76 Utah                        67  74    +6.45   -13.45
AWAY   # 33 BYU                         74  74    +0.52             0.520
HOME   #108 Oklahoma St.                83  66   +17.22             0.948
AWAY   # 97 Colorado                    75  66    +8.90             0.800
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  74  72    +1.92             0.572
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     60  70    -9.48             0.185
HOME   # 12 Arizona                     76  73    +2.72             0.602

Here is BYU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #347 Central Arkansas            88  50   +27.93   +10.07
HOME   #146 UC Riverside                86  80   +15.01    -9.01
HOME   #218 Queens                      99  55   +18.96   +25.04
HOME   #266 Idaho                       95  71   +21.31    +2.69
HOME   #364 Mississippi Valley St.      87  43   +42.37    +1.63
NEUT   # 24 Mississippi                 85  96    -2.68    -8.32
NEUT   #112 N.C. State                  72  61    +9.08    +1.92
AWAY   # 82 Providence                  64  83    +2.41   -21.41
HOME   #256 Fresno St.                  95  67   +22.13    +5.87
NEUT   #175 Wyoming                     68  49   +12.56    +6.44
HOME   #317 Florida A&M                103  57   +24.75   +21.25
HOME   # 61 Arizona St.                 76  56    +7.53   +12.47
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     55  86   -12.89   -18.11
HOME   #  7 Texas Tech                  67  72    -1.90    -3.10
AWAY   # 84 TCU                         67  71    +2.70    -6.70
HOME   #108 Oklahoma St.                85  69   +12.76    +3.24
AWAY   # 76 Utah                        72  73    +2.17    -3.17
AWAY   # 97 Colorado                    83  67    +4.66   +11.34
HOME   # 54 Cincinnati                  80  52    +6.06   +21.94
HOME   # 29 Baylor                      93  89    +2.23    +1.77
AWAY   # 73 UCF                         81  75    +1.98    +4.02
HOME   # 12 Arizona                     74  85    -1.40    -9.60
AWAY   # 54 Cincinnati                  66  84    -0.94   -17.06
AWAY   # 46 West Virginia               73  69    -1.80    +5.80
HOME   # 59 Kansas St.                  80  65    +7.26    +7.74
HOME   # 16 Kansas                      74  74    -0.52             0.480
AWAY   # 12 Arizona                     74  82    -8.40             0.214
AWAY   # 61 Arizona St.                 76  75    +0.53             0.520
HOME   # 46 West Virginia               72  66    +5.20             0.688
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    72  81    -9.03             0.197
HOME   # 76 Utah                        82  72    +9.17             0.807