predictions for Utah game

Two consecutive road games, both at altitude, though the Jayhawks will
be better acclimated by the second game given that they're staying in
Utah between games.  On paper, the first game is the easier of the two.

The road hasn't been particularly favorable for Kansas, with 5 of its
losses coming on the road:

# 7 Iowa State
#19 Missouri
#28 Baylor
#30 Crieghton
#57 Kansas State

against just three road wins:

#55 Cincinnati
#66 UCF
#89 TCU

but Utah is ranked #84; only TCU has been an "easier" opponent on the
road.

All the usual prognosticators are picking Kansas to win the game, though
the DPPI is conspicuously absent.  Then again, Don has been globe
trotting and may have run into a place with no Internet service (he'll
need to get Starlink).  Dunkel is the optimist, picking Kansas to win
by 12.5 points, with Massey and Real Time being the pessimists with
winning margins of just 4 points.  The average is 7.0 points with a
scatter of 2.3 points.

An interesting stat that Derek Johnson mentioned on his podcast:
Lovering is a 39 percent free throw shooter.  Could we see the
"Hack-a-Doke" strategy when Udoka was playing for Kansas?  Hopefully
we won't be so desperate.

Enjoy the late game; it'll be dinnertime here in Hawaii.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UU      KU      Defensive Stats      UU      KU
Points/Game         75.4    76.4     Opp Points/Game     70.8    66.3
Avg Score Margin    +4.6   +10.1     Opp Effective FG %  47.6    44.4
Assists/Game        18.0    18.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.8     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.9    38.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.9    26.5
Effective FG %      53.3    53.4     Blocks/Game          4.0     4.9
Off Rebound %       31.0    28.3     Steals/Game          6.4     6.3
FTA/FGA            0.364   0.235     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.5    14.1
Turnover %          15.5    14.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UU 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.21           +1.80    
inconsistency         12.82           11.33    
trend                 -0.23 ± 0.38    -0.74 ± 0.30
mental toughness      -0.17 ± 0.29    -0.59 ± 0.13         
average total pts     142.75          146.17 

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in conference, one of which Kansas has
played twice (Iowa State) and two of which Utah has played twice (Baylor and
Cincinnati), giving us ten scores to compare:

KU  -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)     KU  -11 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)
UU  -25 BU  on road (-21 neutral court)     UU  -15 BU  at home (-19 neutral court)
KU  +10 UU  on road (+14 neutral court)     KU   +8 UU  on road (+12 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)     KU  +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)
UU  -23 ISU on road (-19 neutral court)     UU  -23 ISU on road (-19 neutral court)
KU   +2 UU  on road ( +6 neutral court)     KU  +28 UU  on road (+32 neutral court)

KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
UU   +8 TCU on road (+12 neutral court)
KU   +1 UU  on road ( +5 neutral court)

KU   -6 UH  at home (-10 neutral court)
UU  -34 UH  on road (-30 neutral court)
KU  +16 UU  on road (+20 neutral court)

KU  +14 UC  on road (+18 neutral court)     KU  +14 UC  on road (+18 neutral court)
UU   +3 UC  at home ( -1 neutral court)     UU  -10 UC  on road ( -6 neutral court)
KU  +15 UU  on road (+19 neutral court)     KU   +8 UU  on road (+12 neutral court)

KU  +12 CU  at home ( +8 neutral court)
UU  +13 CU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU   -5 UU  on road ( -1 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
UU  -11 WVU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU   -2 UU  on road ( +2 neutral court)

Eight of the comparisons favor Kansas, while two favor Utah.  The average is
8.1 points with a scatter of 9.8 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Gabe Madsen (guard, not to be confused with Mason Madsen)
most points        Gabe Madsen (guard)
most rebounds      Keanu Dawes (forward)
most assists       Miro Little (guard)
most steals        Ezra Ausar (forward)
most blocks        Lawson Lovering (center)
most turnovers     Gabe Madsen (guard)
most fouls         Lawson Lovering (center)

Reserve guard Jayden Teat is out with an unspecified injury.
Reserve forward Ibi Traore is out for the season with an unspecified injury.

                                                          17-7          13-11
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Utah
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +4.00   74   70       65       # 15   #  6    # 65   # 54
Pomeroy                 +7.94   78   70       77.3     # 10   #  9    # 84   # 62
Greenfield              +6.50   76   69.5              # 12   #  6    # 67   # 60
Dunkel                 +12.50   77   65                # 23           # 77
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   76   70                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +6.81   76   69       72.4     # 12   #  8    # 73   # 58
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   75   70       74       # 18   #  8    #140   # 63
Real Time               +4.00   74   70       56.7     # 23   #  7    #130   # 89
DPPI                                                   # 13   #  4    #      #    
ESPN BPI                +6.60                 74.3     #  9   #  4    # 62   # 71
Whitlock                +5.56                          # 15   #  4    # 81   # 64
Colley Matrix           +5.84                          # 21   #  6    #100   # 69
Donchess                +5.90   77   71       69.9     # 17   # 10    # 74   # 72
Haslametrics           +10.09   77   67                # 12           # 86
INCCStats               +9.00   79   70       77.2     # 10           # 79
common opponents        +8.10             
NCAA NET                                               # 11           # 78
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 15           # 79
Pomeroy offense                                        # 41           # 92
Pomeroy defense                                        #  5           # 90
Pomeroy tempo                                          #118           # 93
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +6.96   76.3 69.2     70.9
scatter                  2.29    1.6  1.7      7.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #296 Howard                      87  57   +29.24    +0.76
HOME   # 47 North Carolina              92  89   +10.61    -7.61
NEUT   # 23 Michigan St.                77  69    +1.63    +6.37
HOME   #187 Oakland                     78  57   +20.81    +0.19
HOME   #109 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +16.99    +1.01
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        75  72    -6.26    +9.26
HOME   #158 Furman                      86  51   +19.78   +15.22
AWAY   # 30 Creighton                   63  76    +0.51   -13.51
AWAY   # 19 Missouri                    67  76    -2.28    -6.72
HOME   #111 N.C. State                  75  60   +17.13    -2.13
HOME   #218 Brown                       87  53   +23.02   +10.98
HOME   # 48 West Virginia               61  62    +9.90   -10.90
AWAY   # 66 UCF                         99  48    +6.44   +44.56
HOME   # 60 Arizona St.                 74  55   +12.01    +6.99
AWAY   # 55 Cincinnati                  54  40    +3.61   +10.39
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    57  74    -4.46   -12.54
HOME   # 57 Kansas St.                  84  74   +11.44    -1.44
AWAY   # 89 TCU                         74  61    +7.94    +5.06
HOME   #  3 Houston                     86  92    -1.73    -4.27
HOME   # 66 UCF                         91  87   +13.44    -9.44
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      70  81    -0.84   -10.16
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    69  52    +2.54   +14.46
AWAY   # 57 Kansas St.                  73  81    +4.44   -12.44
HOME   #103 Colorado                    71  59   +16.97    -4.97
AWAY   # 84 Utah                        78  70    +7.94             0.773
AWAY   # 34 BYU                         75  73    +1.50             0.556
HOME   # 98 Oklahoma St.                83  65   +17.14             0.947
AWAY   #103 Colorado                    75  65    +9.97             0.827
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  74  71    +3.37             0.625
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     61  69    -8.73             0.205
HOME   # 14 Arizona                     77  73    +3.78             0.640

Here is Utah's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #314 Alcorn St.                 100  59   +18.06   +22.94
HOME   #349 Central Arkansas            98  63   +22.40   +12.60
HOME   #215 Queens                      96  65   +12.60   +18.40
NEUT   # 31 Mississippi St.             73  78    -6.89    +1.89
HOME   #302 Utah Tech                   84  53   +17.79   +13.21
HOME   #364 Mississippi Valley St.      94  48   +36.35    +9.65
HOME   #247 Eastern Washington          88  80   +14.72    -6.72
HOME   # 21 Saint Mary's                63  72    -5.47    -3.53
HOME   #175 Radford                     81  63    +9.99    +8.01
HOME   #323 Florida A&M                 89  59   +19.64   +10.36
NEUT   # 62 Iowa                        88  95    -2.56    -4.44
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      56  81   -11.66   -13.34
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  65  93    -7.59   -20.41
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    59  82   -15.94    -7.06
HOME   # 98 Oklahoma St.                83  62    +5.48   +15.52
AWAY   # 89 TCU                         73  65    -3.03   +11.03
HOME   # 34 BYU                         73  72    -2.62    +3.62
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     36  70   -18.95   -15.05
HOME   # 28 Baylor                      61  76    -4.66   -10.34
HOME   # 55 Cincinnati                  69  66    -0.24    +3.24
AWAY   # 98 Oklahoma St.                72  81    -1.52    -7.48
HOME   #103 Colorado                    72  59    +5.86    +7.14
AWAY   # 48 West Virginia               61  72    -7.76    -3.24
AWAY   # 55 Cincinnati                  75  85    -7.24    -2.76
HOME   # 10 Kansas                      70  78    -7.94             0.227
HOME   # 57 Kansas St.                  75  74    +0.25             0.509
AWAY   # 66 UCF                         79  84    -5.44             0.303
AWAY   # 14 Arizona                     71  86   -14.99             0.078
HOME   # 60 Arizona St.                 75  74    +0.69             0.526
HOME   # 48 West Virginia               68  69    -0.76             0.471
AWAY   # 34 BYU                         72  81    -9.62             0.182