Big 12 projection, Round 13

So, Kansas is four and a half games back with seven to play.  The Fat Lady is warming
up her vocal chords.  The goal now should be a first and second round bye, which means
finishing in the top four.  It would be easier to leapfrog Arizona than Houston, so it's
probably best that Houston win Saturday's contest in Tucson.  But if you still hold out hope
for a conference championship, then obviously Houston needs to take a loss.

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9   Rd10 
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  3  Houston        15.529 15.675 16.158 16.213 16.488 16.705 16.689 16.887 17.520 17.863 16.963
# 14  Arizona        11.682 11.856 12.809 13.845 13.643 14.177 13.642 13.650 13.618 14.307 14.807
#  9  Texas Tech     12.489 10.936 11.993 12.588 12.255 12.474 13.123 13.796 13.721 13.814 14.820
#  7  Iowa State     15.527 15.922 16.101 16.163 16.683 17.183 16.108 16.172 16.440 15.670 14.216
# 10  Kansas         13.280 11.900 13.337 13.629 14.372 13.841 13.807 14.161 13.509 13.479 12.823
# 29  Baylor         11.852 12.436 11.677 12.383 12.769 12.302 10.882 10.916 11.497 11.107 11.740
# 34  BYU             9.908 10.807 10.166  9.528  8.877  9.035  8.666  9.514 10.295 10.739 11.282
# 57  Kansas State    5.716  6.783  6.354  5.479  4.914  4.770  4.983  4.894  5.725  6.257  7.893
# 47  West Virginia   9.149 10.353 11.156 10.165 10.781 10.621 11.562 10.539  9.735  9.397 10.283
# 88  TCU             7.192  7.110  7.448  7.335  7.939  7.054  8.330  8.051  7.428  7.399  7.712
# 55  Cincinnati     12.499 11.444 10.583  9.656  8.667  9.145  9.251  8.672  7.847  7.294  6.371
# 67  UCF             7.011  8.555  7.465  7.835  7.987  8.931  9.030  9.021  9.840  9.950  9.284
# 85  Utah            7.832  7.142  5.920  5.941  6.928  7.882  8.373  8.134  7.576  8.135  7.421
# 61  Arizona State   8.559  7.734  8.538  8.310  7.960  6.885  6.643  7.746  7.406  7.810  7.188
# 98  Oklahoma State  5.058  4.818  4.500  5.277  4.673  4.410  5.013  4.683  4.744  4.207  5.011
#104  Colorado        6.716  6.530  5.796  5.654  5.064  4.585  3.898  3.164  3.099  2.572  2.186

                      Rd11   Rd12   Rd13   Rd13   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game and Prediction
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ------------------------
#  3  Houston        16.847 16.884 17.040 17.067  12  1  Sat @UA  70-68 road win
# 14  Arizona        15.479 15.952 15.265 15.150  11  2  Sat  UH  68-70 home loss
#  9  Texas Tech     15.195 14.772 14.894 14.849  10  3  Sat @OSU 80-70 road win
#  7  Iowa State     13.644 13.806 14.056 14.088   9  4  Sat  UC  74-62
# 10  Kansas         13.344 12.553 12.602 12.565   8  5  Sat @UU  77-69 road win
# 29  Baylor         11.406 11.625 11.469 11.488   7  6  Sat  WVU 70-63
# 34  BYU            10.600  9.884 10.480 10.551   7  6  Sat  KSU 77-71
# 57  Kansas State    8.652  9.569 10.256 10.296   7  6  Sat @BYU 71-77
# 47  West Virginia   9.708 10.070  9.474  9.420   6  7  Sat @BU  63-70
# 88  TCU             8.289  8.057  8.355  8.274   6  7  Sat @ASU 64-71
# 55  Cincinnati      7.179  7.772  8.023  8.041   5  8  Sat @ISU 62-74
# 67  UCF             8.496  8.119  7.869  7.833   4  9  Sat @CU  78-77 road win
# 85  Utah            7.831  7.563  7.312  7.302   5  8  Sat  KU  69-77 home loss
# 61  Arizona State   6.395  5.766  5.644  5.717   3 10  Sat  TCU 71-64
# 98  Oklahoma State  5.131  5.847  5.549  5.597   4  9  Sat  TTU 70-80 home loss
#104  Colorado        1.806  1.759  1.710  1.760   0 13  Sat  UCF 77-78 home loss

As expected, a home game against the conference cellar dweller cost the Jayhawks
the top spot in strength of schedule.  Kansas has two road games that ought to
recover some of that lost ground.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
#  3  Baylor         +14.65
#  7  Arizona State  +13.72
# 10  Kansas         +13.14
# 12  Arizona        +12.70
# 17  UCF            +11.93
# 19  West Virginia  +11.55
# 23  Kansas State   +11.18
# 27  TCU            +10.91
# 32  Colorado       +10.30
# 36  Iowa State     +10.11
# 44  Houston         +9.31
# 48  Oklahoma State  +8.62
# 54  Cincinnati      +7.89
# 55  Texas Tech      +7.76
# 61  Utah            +7.26
# 64  BYU             +6.97

Road wins (41 out of 104)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
6 Houston        OSU KSU UCF KU  WVU CU      0 Arizona                                    +5 UA 
5 Arizona        UC  WVU OSU ASU BYU         1 Houston        TTU                         +5 UH 
5 Texas Tech     UU  BYU KSU UC  UH          1 Iowa State     KSU                         +3 TTU
4 Iowa State     CU  TTU ASU UCF             1 Baylor         TCU                         +3 ISU
3 BYU            CU  UCF WVU                 2 BYU            TTU UA                      +1 BU
3 Kansas         UCF UC  TCU                 2 Kansas         WVU UH                      +1 BYU
3 West Virginia  KU  CU  UC                  2 Kansas State   UH  TTU                     +1 KU
2 Arizona State  WVU CU                      2 Oklahoma State UH  UA                       0 WVU
2 Baylor         ASU UU                      2 TCU            UU  KU                       0 KSU
2 UCF            TTU ASU                     2 Texas Tech     UCF ISU                     -1 TCU
2 Cincinnati     CU  UCF                     2 Utah           TTU BU                      -1 UU
2 Kansas State   ISU ASU                     4 West Virginia  UA  ASU UH  BYU             -2 UC 
1 TCU            BU                          4 Cincinnati     UA  KU  TTU WVU             -2 OSU
1 Utah           TCU                         5 Arizona State  BU  UCF ISU UA  KSU         -3 UCF
0 Colorado                                   5 UCF            KU  UH  BYU UC  ISU         -4 ASU
0 Oklahoma State                             6 Colorado       ISU WVU UC  BYU ASU UH      -6 CU