Big 12 projection, Round 9

No changes in the projected standings.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  4  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47  13.91  13.18  13.72  13.94  13.83    7  2  @KSU (Sa)   OU  by  5.8   projected road win
#  5  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53  14.18  12.82  13.08  13.18  13.50    7  2   BU  (Sa)   WV  by  9.2
#  8  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56  14.17  12.53  12.66  11.95  12.20    6  3  @TCU (Sa)   KU  by 12.3   projected road win
# 23  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36   9.24   9.99  10.28  11.09  10.49    5  4  @OSU (Sa)   ISU by  3.3   projected road win
# 32  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21  10.84  11.15  10.53  10.97  10.22    6  3  @WV  (Sa)   
# 33  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43   7.68   9.13   8.94   9.05  10.13    6  3   TT  (Sa)   UT  by  7.4
# 47  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16   6.27   6.02   6.61   6.47   6.11    2  7   OU  (Sa)   
# 55  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59   5.79   6.16   5.97   5.77   5.96    3  6  @UT  (Sa)   
# 63  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83   4.71   6.28   5.73   5.27   5.15    2  7   ISU (Sa)   
#123  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86   3.21   2.74   2.48   2.31   2.41    1  8   KU  (Sa)   

Yours truly took honors for best prognostications in Round 9.  Greenfield retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                                     Reality  Er1or         1           1          1+                       1     1     1     +     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
WV  over ISU     0.8  -4.0  -3.3  -5.0  -7.0  -4.0  -10.   0.6  -1.3  -2.2  -5.0  -2.5   2.1   0.2  -2.7  -0.7      5     4.2   9.0   8.3  10.0  12.0   9.0  15.0   4.4   6.3   7.2  10.0   7.5   2.9   4.8   7.7   5.7
BU  over UT      4.4   7.0   5.3   4.5   7.0   4.5   9.0   3.3   5.2   3.8   3.0   5.4   4.5   6.4   1.5   9.7     -8    12.4  15.0  13.3  12.5  15.0  12.5  17.0  11.3  13.2  11.8  11.0  13.4  12.5  14.4   9.5  17.7
TT  over OSU     4.3   6.0   3.9   6.5   9.0   5.5  12.0   3.9   5.3   6.1  10.0   6.4   4.7   6.6   4.5   8.3      2     2.3   4.0   1.9   4.5   7.0   3.5  10.0   1.9   3.3   4.1   8.0   4.4   2.7   4.6   2.5   6.3
KU  over KSU    10.9  10.0   8.5  12.0  14.0  11.0  14.0   9.2   9.4   6.7   6.0   9.8  11.5  13.5   7.9  14.1     18     7.1   8.0   9.5   6.0   4.0   7.0   4.0   8.8   8.6  11.3  12.0   8.2   6.5   4.5  10.1   3.9
OU  over TCU    19.7  23.0  20.0  20.0  17.0  19.5  25.0  18.8  19.9  19.2  16.0  18.9  21.0  23.0  18.5  22.8     23     3.3   0.0   3.0   3.0   6.0   3.5   2.0   4.2   3.1   3.8   7.0   4.1   2.0   0.0   4.5   0.2

total this round                                                                                                         29.3  36.0  36.0  36.0  44.0  35.5  48.0  30.6  34.5  38.2  48.0  37.6  26.6  28.3  34.3  33.8
previous total                                                                                                          288.8 293.0 286.9 279.0 334.5 283.5 349.0 294.7 299.0 297.2 333.0 293.7 307.2 305.9 328.3 299.7
cumulative                                                                                                              318.1 329.0 322.9 315.0 378.5 319.0 397.0 325.3 333.5 335.4 381.0 331.3 333.8 334.2 362.6 333.5
per game (total of 45)                                                                                                    7.1   7.3   7.2   7.0   8.4   7.1   8.8   7.2   7.4   7.5   8.5   7.4   7.4   7.4   8.1   7.4

Two road wins in Round 9, bringing us up to the long-term average of one-in-three.
Round 10 could have three road wins.

Road wins (15 out of 45)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
4 West Virginia   KSU TCU TT  ISU     0 Kansas                                 +3 West Virginia 
3 Baylor          ISU TT  OSU         0 Oklahoma                               +2 Oklahoma      
2 Iowa State      KSU TCU             0 Texas                                  +2 Texas         
2 Oklahoma        OSU BU              1 West Virginia   UT                     +1 Baylor        
2 Texas           WV  BU              2 Baylor          OU  UT                 +1 Kansas        
1 Kansas          TT                  2 Iowa State      BU  WV                  0 Iowa State    
1 Texas Tech      TCU                 2 Kansas State    WV  ISU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Kansas State                        2 Oklahoma State  OU  BU                 -2 Oklahoma State
0 Oklahoma State                      3 TCU             WV  TT  ISU            -2 Texas Tech    
0 TCU                                 3 Texas Tech      KU  BU  WV             -3 TCU           

Texas has the best trend in the Big 12, and they still have home games with all three
conference leaders.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +1.59    Texas Tech        5.98    Texas           +0.53 +/- 0.36    Iowa State      +0.26 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma        +1.07    Kansas State      7.50    Oklahoma State  +0.35 +/- 0.36    Oklahoma State  +0.23 +/- 0.20
Kansas          +0.61    Oklahoma          7.61    TCU             -0.04 +/- 0.32    Kansas State    +0.03 +/- 0.13
Texas Tech      +0.34    Iowa State        8.78    Texas Tech      -0.06 +/- 0.22    Oklahoma        +0.01 +/- 0.16
Iowa State      +0.33    TCU               9.33    Iowa State      -0.07 +/- 0.30    TCU             -0.06 +/- 0.15
Texas           +0.15    West Virginia    10.72    Kansas State    -0.07 +/- 0.26    Texas           -0.08 +/- 0.24
Baylor          +0.14    Oklahoma State   10.73    Oklahoma        -0.17 +/- 0.28    Baylor          -0.17 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma State  -0.03    Kansas           10.88    Baylor          -0.37 +/- 0.40    Kansas          -0.22 +/- 0.23
Kansas State    -0.12    Baylor           10.95    Kansas          -0.47 +/- 0.39    Texas Tech      -0.25 +/- 0.12
TCU             -0.37    Texas            10.98    West Virginia   -0.63 +/- 0.34    West Virginia   -0.47 +/- 0.18

TCU's offense is the weakest in the Big 12.  Fortunate, considering how Kansas' defense
hasn't been vintage Bill Self.  We should be able to score today.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    --------------------------
Oklahoma        85.33    West Virginia   65.50    Oklahoma        157.38    West Virginia   +15.27    Texas           80.13 ( 3)
Iowa State      82.36    Oklahoma State  66.86    Iowa State      156.86    Oklahoma        +13.29    Iowa State      80.04 ( 4)
Kansas          81.05    Texas           67.41    Kansas          151.14    Kansas          +10.95    Kansas          79.47 ( 5)
West Virginia   80.77    Kansas State    67.82    West Virginia   146.27    Baylor           +8.00    Oklahoma        79.17 ( 7)
Baylor          76.81    Baylor          68.81    Baylor          145.62    Iowa State       +7.86    Texas Tech      78.29 (18)
Texas           72.36    Texas Tech      69.81    Texas Tech      141.86    Texas            +4.95    Kansas State    78.23 (20)
Texas Tech      72.05    TCU             70.05    Texas           139.77    Kansas State     +3.55    West Virginia   77.92 (26)
Kansas State    71.36    Kansas          70.10    Kansas State    139.18    Oklahoma State   +3.36    Baylor          76.81 (48)
Oklahoma State  70.23    Oklahoma        72.05    TCU             138.23    Texas Tech       +2.24    Oklahoma State  76.81 (49)
TCU             68.18    Iowa State      74.50    Oklahoma State  137.09    TCU              -1.86    TCU             76.75 (51)