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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Colorado game
- asteroid
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1 month 1 day ago #33529
by asteroid
Here we are, twelve rounds into conference play, and Real Time has
reappaeared. For months, the Real Time web site was not responding
at all. Then about a week ago, it resumed responding, but despite
the "last updated" date being 2025, all the records were from last
season. Today, however, everything is current. The unanswered
question is whether Real Time's predictions have gotten any better
during the downtime.
Meanwhile, Seven Overtimes is responding at a snail's pace and
fails to load either the rankings or the predictions pages. So
I'll add the Real Time prediction to the list and omit the Seven
overtimes prediction this time around.
A home game against the conference cellar dweller. Winless in
conference action. Ought to be a cakewalk. Think like that, and
you'll get beat.
All the predicted margins are double digits. The average is 17.2
points, with a scatter of 3.7 points. Colorado has been very
consistent, though consistently bad, having not played a single
game more than 17.2 points above expectation, which suggests that
Colorado doesn't have a chance. Similarly, Kansas has not played
a single game more than 17.2 points below expectation, which suggests
that Kansas has a lock on the win. Think like that, and you'll get
beat. The odds give Kansas a 95 percent chance of winning, using
the Pomeroy ratings. The average of the various predictions is
closer to a 91 percent chance of victory. The Jayhawks responded
to their last loss with a strong showing against a depleted Cyclone
team. How will they respond this time? Self spent more time than
usual in the locker room after the loss in the Octogon; how will
the team respond? The inconsistency of this team has made it more
difficult to predict the outcome of games. It will be interesting
to see how this one goes, given the Buffaloes lowly status in the
Big 12 standings. Their claim to fame this season is having beaten
UConn, though by a single point on a neutral court. Kansas dare not
lose another home game. Not that it's likely to make any difference
in the race for the conference championship, as the Fat Lady is
already warming up her vocal cords.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats CU KU Defensive Stats CU KU
Points/Game 70.7 76.7 Opp Points/Game 72.0 66.7
Avg Score Margin -1.3 +10.0 Opp Effective FG % 50.4 44.5
Assists/Game 15.0 18.0 Off Rebounds/Gm 7.7 9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.3 38.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.6 26.3
Effective FG % 51.7 53.5 Blocks/Game 3.8 4.9
Off Rebound % 26.8 28.3 Steals/Game 7.5 6.3
FTA/FGA 0.367 0.234 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.3 14.3
Turnover % 19.2 14.1
My Stats Comparison KU CU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.24 +0.29
inconsistency 13.01 8.18
trend -0.19 ± 0.42 -0.42 ± 0.25
mental toughness -0.19 ± 0.29 -0.28 ± 0.15
average total pts 143.30 142.70
Common Opponents
================
There are eight common opponents, seven in conference, two of which Kansas has
played twice (Iowa State and UCF) and two of which Colorado has played twice
(Iowa State and Arizona State), plus Michigan State. One of Colorado's games
against Iowa State is a non-conference affair, which I'm pairing with Kansas'
road game with Iowa State; their respective home games with Iowa State are
paired with one another. So we have eleven scores to compare:
KU +8 MSU neutral ( +8 neutral court)
CU -16 MSU neutral (-16 neutral court)
KU +28 CU at home (+24 neutral court)
KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court) KU +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)
CU -28 ISU neutral (-28 neutral court) CU -10 ISU at home (-14 neutral court)
KU +19 CU at home (+15 neutral court) KU +31 CU at home (+27 neutral court)
KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court) KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
CU -20 ASU on road (-16 neutral court) CU -2 ASU at home ( -6 neutral court)
KU +35 CU at home (+31 neutral court) KU +25 CU at home (+21 neutral court)
KU +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court) KU +4 UCF at home ( 0 neutral court)
CU -1 UCF on road ( +3 neutral court) CU -1 UCF on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU +56 CU at home (+52 neutral court) KU +1 CU at home ( -3 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
CU -8 WVU at home (-12 neutral court)
KU +11 CU at home ( +7 neutral court)
KU +14 UC on road (+18 neutral court)
CU -6 UC at home (-10 neutral court)
KU +32 CU at home (+28 neutral court)
KU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
CU -11 TCU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU +28 CU at home (+24 neutral court)
KU -6 UH at home (-10 neutral court)
CU -10 UH at home (-14 neutral court)
KU +8 CU at home ( +4 neutral court)
All eleven of the comparisons favor Kansas, the average being 24.9 points with a
scatter of 15.0 points. The two UCF comparisons represent the extremes, surprise,
surprise.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Julian Hammond III (guard)
most points Julian Hammond III (guard)
most rebounds Trevor Baskin (forward)
most assists Julian Hammond III (guard)
most steals Trevor Baskin (forward)
most blocks Bangot Dak (forward)
most turnovers Julian Hammond III (guard)
most fouls Elijah Malone (center)
Guard Andrew Crawford is sitting out with a redshirt.
16-7 9-14
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Colorado
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +10.00 76 66 83 # 16 # 5 # 89 # 34
Pomeroy +17.47 79 62 95.1 # 11 # 5 #106 # 40
Greenfield +16.50 79 62 # 12 # 4 # 95 # 62
Dunkel +24.50 80 56 # 21 # 92
Vegas (via Dunkel) +16.50 78 62
Dolphin Predictive +14.75 77 63 90.4 # 12 # 5 # 95 # 61
Seven Overtimes # # # #
Real Time +18.00 85 57 90.1 # 23 # 7 #204 # 55
DPPI +16.60 80 64 90.4 # 13 # 4 # 98 # 40
ESPN BPI +17.50 94.3 # 8 # 3 #101 # 41
Whitlock +15.69 # 15 # 4 #114 # 39
Colley Matrix +17.95 # 21 # 6 #167 # 46
Donchess +13.20 80 66 90.4 # 17 # 8 # 98 # 45
Haslametrics +18.25 79 60 # 14 #104
INCCStats +16.00 79 63 94.4 # 10 #101
common opponents +24.91
NCAA NET # 11 #110
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 15 #116
Pomeroy offense # 39 #159
Pomeroy defense # 5 # 87
Pomeroy tempo #107 #178
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +17.19 79.3 61.9 91.0
scatter 3.72 2.3 3.2 3.9
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #296 Howard 87 57 +29.45 +0.55
HOME # 47 North Carolina 92 89 +10.77 -7.77
NEUT # 17 Michigan St. 77 69 +1.10 +6.90
HOME #197 Oakland 78 57 +21.34 -0.34
HOME #112 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +17.71 +0.29
NEUT # 2 Duke 75 72 -6.15 +9.15
HOME #166 Furman 86 51 +20.54 +14.46
AWAY # 30 Creighton 63 76 +0.31 -13.31
AWAY # 24 Missouri 67 76 -1.47 -7.53
HOME #102 N.C. State 75 60 +16.61 -1.61
HOME #226 Brown 87 53 +23.84 +10.16
HOME # 44 West Virginia 61 62 +9.80 -10.80
AWAY # 67 UCF 99 48 +6.49 +44.51
HOME # 62 Arizona St. 74 55 +12.57 +6.43
AWAY # 53 Cincinnati 54 40 +3.89 +10.11
AWAY # 8 Iowa St. 57 74 -4.05 -12.95
HOME # 57 Kansas St. 84 74 +11.90 -1.90
AWAY # 87 TCU 74 61 +7.75 +5.25
HOME # 3 Houston 86 92 -1.62 -4.38
HOME # 67 UCF 91 87 +13.49 -9.49
AWAY # 27 Baylor 70 81 -0.70 -10.30
HOME # 8 Iowa St. 69 52 +2.95 +14.05
AWAY # 57 Kansas St. 73 81 +4.90 -12.90
HOME #106 Colorado 79 62 +17.47 0.951
AWAY # 85 Utah 77 69 +8.04 0.776
AWAY # 37 BYU 75 73 +2.13 0.580
HOME #100 Oklahoma St. 82 65 +17.65 0.952
AWAY #106 Colorado 76 65 +10.47 0.839
HOME # 9 Texas Tech 73 70 +3.17 0.618
AWAY # 3 Houston 60 69 -8.62 0.208
HOME # 10 Arizona 77 74 +3.43 0.627
Here is Colorado's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #246 Eastern Washington 76 56 +11.95 +8.05
HOME #152 Northern Colorado 90 88 +6.14 -4.14
HOME #327 Cal St. Fullerton 83 53 +16.92 +13.08
HOME #284 Harvard 88 66 +13.61 +8.39
NEUT # 17 Michigan St. 56 72 -12.84 -3.16
NEUT # 34 Connecticut 73 72 -8.18 +9.18
NEUT # 8 Iowa St. 71 99 -14.56 -13.44
HOME #300 Pacific 75 66 +14.52 -5.52
HOME # 76 Colorado St. 72 55 +0.13 +16.87
HOME #104 South Dakota St. 81 70 +3.23 +7.77
HOME #353 Bellarmine 79 55 +19.83 +4.17
HOME # 8 Iowa St. 69 79 -11.06 +1.06
AWAY # 62 Arizona St. 61 81 -8.45 -11.55
AWAY # 67 UCF 74 75 -8.30 +7.30
HOME # 44 West Virginia 70 78 -3.37 -4.63
HOME # 53 Cincinnati 62 68 -2.53 -3.47
AWAY #100 Oklahoma St. 73 83 -3.91 -6.09
HOME # 37 BYU 67 83 -4.58 -11.42
AWAY # 10 Arizona 63 78 -17.85 +2.85
HOME # 62 Arizona St. 68 70 -1.45 -0.55
AWAY # 87 TCU 57 68 -5.90 -5.10
AWAY # 85 Utah 59 72 -6.21 -6.79
HOME # 3 Houston 59 69 -13.87 +3.87
AWAY # 11 Kansas 62 79 -17.47 0.049
HOME # 67 UCF 77 79 -1.30 0.451
AWAY # 8 Iowa St. 63 81 -18.06 0.044
HOME # 27 Baylor 68 75 -6.95 0.256
HOME # 11 Kansas 65 76 -10.47 0.161
AWAY # 57 Kansas St. 67 76 -8.90 0.200
AWAY # 9 Texas Tech 62 79 -17.15 0.052
HOME # 87 TCU 67 66 +1.10 0.541
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, jaythawk1
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