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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Kansas State game
- asteroid
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2 months 1 day ago #33513
by asteroid
Kansas State was projected to win just six conference games before conference play
commenced. The Wildcats already have five wins, and they're on a four-game winning
streak, including a shocking 19 point road win in Ames. They've also played above
expectation for seven games in a row, leading to a positive trend with strong
statistical significance.
Although Kansas is coming off of a satisfying win over Iowa State in Allen Field
House, those meltdowns against Houston and Baylor are still fresh in fans' minds.
Kansas State may very well feel that the Jayhawks are vulnerable.
Recall that KJ did not play in the earlier game, and the loss of his defensive
prowess likely contributed to Hawkins going off for 15 points. Or maybe Self
would have put KJ on N'Guessan, who went off for 13 points in half as many minutes
as Hawkins. But it was Hawkins who also grabbed 7 rebounds and dished 10 assists.
Clearly, the Jayhawks need to find a way to shut down Hawkins. Can the rest of
the Widlcat squad beat the Jayhawks? Depends on whether Jekyll or Hyde shows up
for the game. Zeke Mayo has been an assassin at home, but kind of disappears on
the road. That difference may be the key to winning this game. Hopefully Kansas
is healthier than it has been in recent weeks. Harris has had more time for his
ankle to heal, and KJ had had more time for his shoulder to heal. Clemence is
presumably still unavailable because of his groin injury, but he's been buried
pretty deeply on the bench, so his unavailability has minimal effect on the team.
Interestingly, all the prognosticators are picking Kansas in the Showdown, but
the common opponent comparison actually favors Kansas State on the strength of
their stunning upset of the Cyclones in Hilton. Obviously, had the Wildcats
played UCF, then that massive Jayhawk win in Orlando would have tilted things
in the Jayhawks' favor. Dunkel is the most optimistic, picking the Jayhawks
by 9 points, while Donchess' 3.2 point margin for Kansas is the most pessimistic
outside of the common opponent comparison. The average is 5.1 points in favor
of Kansas, with a scatter of 2.7 points.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats KSU KU Defensive Stats KSU KU
Points/Game 73.5 76.8 Opp Points/Game 70.0 66.0
Avg Score Margin +3.5 +10.8 Opp Effective FG % 49.5 43.8
Assists/Game 16.3 17.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.2 9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.0 39.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 21.2 26.3
Effective FG % 52.9 53.4 Blocks/Game 3.6 5.0
Off Rebound % 29.7 28.8 Steals/Game 7.6 6.3
FTA/FGA 0.290 0.235 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.6 14.4
Turnover % 15.8 14.0
My Stats Comparison KU KSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.31 +0.11
inconsistency 13.02 13.21
trend -0.04 ± 0.45 +0.79 ± 0.42
mental toughness -0.15 ± 0.29 +0.07 ± 0.22
average total pts 142.82 143.45
Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, one of which Kansas has played twice, plus
the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us nine scores to compare:
KU +14 UC on road (+18 neutral court)
KSU +3 UC at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU +15 KSU on road (+19 neutral court)
KU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
KSU -1 TCU on road ( +3 neutral court)
KU +10 KSU on road (+14 neutral court)
KU -6 UH at home (-10 neutral court)
KSU -30 UH at home (-34 neutral court)
KU +20 KSU on road (+24 neutral court)
KU -11 BU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KSU -8 BU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU -7 KSU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
KSU +13 WVU at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU -18 KSU on road (-14 neutral court)
KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court) KU +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral court)
KSU +19 ISU on road (+23 neutral court) KSU +19 ISU on road (+23 neutral court)
KU -40 KSU on road (-36 neutral court) KU -14 KSU on road (-10 neutral court)
KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
KSU +1 ASU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU +6 KSU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
KU +2 KSU on road ( +6 neutral court)
Five of the comparisons favor Kansas, while four favor Kansas State. The
average actually favors Kansas State by 2.9 points, with a scatter of 18.9 points.
That surprising result is due to each team's respective games in Ames.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most points David N'Guessan (forward)
most rebounds two tied
most assists Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most steals Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most blocks Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most turnovers Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most fouls Achor Achor (forward)
The two tied for the lead in rebounds are Hawkins and N'Guessan. Kind of a
one-dimensional team. Put Marcus Garrett on Hawkins, and we should be okay.
Oh wait...
16-6 11-11
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Kansas State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +4.00 72 68 65 # 15 # 5 # 68 # 35
Pomeroy +6.04 74 68 71.6 # 9 # 6 # 65 # 30
Greenfield +4.00 73 69 # 10 # 3 # 64 # 48
Dunkel +9.00 78 69 # 21 #123
Vegas (via Dunkel) +4.00 72 68
Dolphin Predictive +6.88 75 68 72.7 # 9 # 4 # 57 # 47
Seven Overtimes +5.00 74 69 77 # 14 # 8 # 90 # 59
DPPI +5.10 74 69 63.5 # 9 # 3 # 64 # 48
ESPN BPI +7.20 76.0 # 7 # 3 # 66 # 28
Whitlock +5.13 # 15 # 4 # 75 # 43
Colley Matrix +8.16 # 17 # 5 #122 # 38
Donchess +3.20 74 70 59.3 # 12 # 7 # 66 # 54
Haslametrics +5.77 73 67 # 6 # 45
INCCStats +6.00 75 69 70.3 # 7 # 53
common opponents -2.89
NCAA NET # 9 # 80
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 12 # 78
Pomeroy offense # 36 # 72
Pomeroy defense # 5 # 67
Pomeroy tempo #120 #202
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +5.11 74.0 68.6 69.4
scatter 2.74 1.7 0.8 6.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #309 Howard 87 57 +30.74 -0.74
HOME # 40 North Carolina 92 89 +10.48 -7.48
NEUT # 16 Michigan St. 77 69 +1.97 +6.03
HOME #196 Oakland 78 57 +21.82 -0.82
HOME #113 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +18.39 -0.39
NEUT # 2 Duke 75 72 -6.30 +9.30
HOME #159 Furman 86 51 +20.67 +14.33
AWAY # 30 Creighton 63 76 +1.27 -14.27
AWAY # 22 Missouri 67 76 -1.01 -7.99
HOME #103 N.C. State 75 60 +17.15 -2.15
HOME #227 Brown 87 53 +24.37 +9.63
HOME # 47 West Virginia 61 62 +10.60 -11.60
AWAY # 63 UCF 99 48 +6.81 +44.19
HOME # 58 Arizona St. 74 55 +12.63 +6.37
AWAY # 56 Cincinnati 54 40 +5.11 +8.89
AWAY # 10 Iowa St. 57 74 -3.02 -13.98
HOME # 65 Kansas St. 84 74 +13.04 -3.04
AWAY # 79 TCU 74 61 +7.77 +5.23
HOME # 3 Houston 86 92 -1.25 -4.75
HOME # 63 UCF 91 87 +13.81 -9.81
AWAY # 26 Baylor 70 81 +0.06 -11.06
HOME # 10 Iowa St. 69 52 +3.98 +13.02
AWAY # 65 Kansas St. 74 68 +6.04 0.716
HOME #107 Colorado 79 61 +18.10 0.956
AWAY # 88 Utah 76 68 +8.54 0.790
AWAY # 34 BYU 73 72 +1.77 0.566
HOME #109 Oklahoma St. 82 63 +18.72 0.962
AWAY #107 Colorado 75 64 +11.10 0.853
HOME # 8 Texas Tech 72 69 +3.50 0.630
AWAY # 3 Houston 60 68 -8.25 0.218
HOME # 12 Arizona 77 72 +4.34 0.659
Here is Kansas State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #341 New Orleans 89 65 +23.79 +0.21
HOME #154 Cleveland St. 77 64 +11.06 +1.94
HOME # 83 LSU 65 76 +5.57 -16.57
HOME #364 Mississippi Valley St. 74 56 +35.47 -17.47
NEUT #130 George Washington 83 71 +6.36 +5.64
NEUT # 72 Liberty 65 67 +0.64 -2.64
NEUT #177 Longwood 80 64 +9.25 +6.75
HOME #363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 120 73 +30.90 +16.10
AWAY # 14 St. John's 71 88 -11.83 -5.17
NEUT # 60 Drake 70 73 -0.29 -2.71
AWAY #148 Wichita St. 65 84 +3.91 -22.91
HOME # 56 Cincinnati 70 67 +2.80 +0.20
AWAY # 79 TCU 62 63 -1.70 +0.70
AWAY #109 Oklahoma St. 66 79 +1.62 -14.62
HOME # 3 Houston 57 87 -9.63 -20.37
HOME # 8 Texas Tech 57 61 -5.61 +1.61
AWAY # 9 Kansas 74 84 -13.04 +3.04
AWAY # 26 Baylor 62 70 -9.07 +1.07
HOME # 47 West Virginia 73 60 +1.50 +11.50
HOME #109 Oklahoma St. 85 57 +8.62 +19.38
AWAY # 10 Iowa St. 80 61 -12.64 +31.64
AWAY # 58 Arizona St. 71 70 -4.03 +5.03
HOME # 9 Kansas 68 74 -6.04 0.284
HOME # 12 Arizona 72 78 -5.45 0.303
AWAY # 34 BYU 69 77 -7.67 0.234
AWAY # 88 Utah 72 73 -1.35 0.449
HOME # 58 Arizona St. 72 69 +2.97 0.611
AWAY # 63 UCF 76 80 -3.43 0.373
HOME #107 Colorado 74 66 +8.37 0.786
AWAY # 56 Cincinnati 64 68 -4.20 0.346
HOME # 10 Iowa St. 70 75 -5.64 0.297
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, Illhawk, jaythawk1
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