×
Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Iowa State game
- asteroid
-
Topic Author
- Offline
- Platinum Member
-
Less
More
- Posts: 653
- Thank you received: 3457
2 months 6 days ago #33496
by asteroid
So, which is worse, losing by 19 at home to what was the #85 team, or losing
by 11 on the road to what was the #26 team? Yeah, it's got to be the former,
right? Except that Iowa State didn't piss away a 21 point lead. We have two
wounded animals playing one another, and only one of them will feel better
after Big Monday's game. Fortuantely, Houston also lost, so the Jayhawks
didn't lose any ground in terms of wins and losses, but now Kansas has one
fewer game in which to cut into that lead. Making up three games in the
next ten (actual standings) is a gargantuan task; making up four games as
implied by the projected standings is about as improbable as beating UCF
by 51 points.
Iowa State is on a two-game losing streak. The Cyclones have not played
more than two consecutive games below expectation all season long. But
Kansas has not played more than three consecutive games below expectation
all season long. One of them will extend their futility.
48 hours isn't a lot of time to get a lot healthier, so KJ may still be
on limited minutes because of his shoulder, and Dajuan might not be at
full speed because of his ankle, and Shak might still be feeling some
pain in his foot. That mnight be forcing Self to use a line-up that
hasn't had much time to gel.
The prognosticators generally favor Kansas. Two of the fifteen I track
do not. The DPPI is the most pessimistic, expecting Kansas to lose by
0.6 of a point. Whitlock's ratings imply a 0.24 point loss. The rest
favor Kansas by anywhere from 2.0 points to 7.0 points (Dunkel). The
average is 2.86 points in favor of Kansas with a scatter of 1.80 points.
Some streaks have been falling by the wayside this season, such as the
streak of wins in conference openers, but it might be worth noting
that Kansas is 48-1 at home in Big Monday contests, including 37-0
under Self.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats ISU KU Defensive Stats ISU KU
Points/Game 83.0 77.2 Opp Points/Game 67.6 66.7
Avg Score Margin +15.5 +10.5 Opp Effective FG % 48.0 44.3
Assists/Game 15.3 17.9 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.5 9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.0 39.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.6 26.5
Effective FG % 54.7 53.3 Blocks/Game 3.6 4.9
Off Rebound % 32.0 28.8 Steals/Game 9.8 6.5
FTA/FGA 0.392 0.237 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.4 14.4
Turnover % 13.5 13.8
My Stats Comparison KU ISU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.47 +1.49
inconsistency 13.09 10.97
trend -0.21 ± 0.48 -0.38 ± 0.40
mental toughness -0.20 ± 0.30 +0.06 ± 0.19
average total pts 143.86 150.62
Common Opponents
================
There are five common opponents, one of which Kansas has played twice, plus
the head-to-head in Ames, giving us seven scores to compare:
KU -11 BU on road ( -7 neutral court)
ISU +19 BU at home (+15 neutral court)
KU -18 ISU at home (-22 neutral court)
KU -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
ISU -7 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
KU +2 ISU at home ( -2 neutral court)
KU +4 UCF at home ( 0 neutral court) KU +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court)
ISU +25 UCF at home (+21 neutral court) ISU +25 UCF at home (+21 neutral court)
KU -17 ISU at home (-21 neutral court) KU +38 ISU at home (+34 neutral court)
KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
ISU +15 ASU on road (+19 neutral court)
KU 0 ISU at home ( -4 neutral court)
KU +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
ISU -19 KSU at home (-23 neutral court)
KU +33 ISU at home (+29 neutral court)
KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
KU -9 ISU at home (-13 neutral court)
Three of the comparisons favor Kansas, three favor Iowa State, and one is a wash.
The average favors Kansas by 4.1 points, with a whopping scatter of 22.8 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Kershon Gilbert (guard)
most points Curtis Jones (guard)
most rebounds Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most assists Kershon Gilbert (guard)
most steals Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most blocks Dishon Jackson (center)
most turnovers Kershon Gilbert (guard)
most fouls Dishon Jackson (center)
Forward Milan Momcilovic is out following surgery on his left hand; he is
fifth on the team in minutes and points per game.
15-6 17-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Iowa State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +3.00 73 70 58 # 15 # 3 # 8 # 17
Pomeroy +2.60 74 72 59.7 # 10 # 6 # 7 # 34
Greenfield +2.50 73.5 71 # 12 # 3 # 6 # 13
Dunkel +7.00 74 67 # 21 # 4
Vegas (via Dunkel) +2.50 74 71
Dolphin Predictive +2.80 74 71 59.6 # 11 # 6 # 12 # 14
Seven Overtimes +3.00 75 72 61 # 13 # 9 # 27 # 34
DPPI -0.60 74 75 48.1 # 10 # 3 # 7 # 50
ESPN BPI +3.20 62.4 # 8 # 3 # 7 # 39
Whitlock -0.24 # 9 # 4 # 4 # 42
Colley Matrix +3.57 # 17 # 5 # 18 # 44
Donchess +4.70 76 71 64.9 # 14 # 6 # 13 # 46
Haslametrics +2.70 73 70 # 9 # 7
INCCStats +2.00 74 72 59.4 # 8 # 7
common opponents +4.14
NCAA NET # 9 # 7
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 10 # 4
Pomeroy offense # 34 # 17
Pomeroy defense # 5 # 6
Pomeroy tempo # 95 # 76
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +2.86 74.1 71.1 59.1
scatter 1.80 0.9 1.9 4.9
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #300 Howard 87 57 +29.13 +0.87
HOME # 40 North Carolina 92 89 +9.88 -6.88
NEUT # 17 Michigan St. 77 69 +1.37 +6.63
HOME #186 Oakland 78 57 +20.76 +0.24
HOME #114 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +18.06 -0.06
NEUT # 2 Duke 75 72 -6.32 +9.32
HOME #161 Furman 86 51 +20.01 +14.99
AWAY # 32 Creighton 63 76 +1.02 -14.02
AWAY # 23 Missouri 67 76 -1.13 -7.87
HOME # 99 N.C. State 75 60 +16.08 -1.08
HOME #227 Brown 87 53 +23.94 +10.06
HOME # 43 West Virginia 61 62 +9.81 -10.81
AWAY # 58 UCF 99 48 +5.53 +45.47
HOME # 57 Arizona St. 74 55 +11.81 +7.19
AWAY # 61 Cincinnati 54 40 +5.05 +8.95
AWAY # 7 Iowa St. 57 74 -4.40 -12.60
HOME # 68 Kansas St. 84 74 +12.85 -2.85
AWAY # 82 TCU 74 61 +7.36 +5.64
HOME # 3 Houston 86 92 -2.35 -3.65
HOME # 58 UCF 91 87 +12.53 -8.53
AWAY # 25 Baylor 70 81 -0.76 -10.24
HOME # 7 Iowa St. 74 72 +2.60 0.597
AWAY # 68 Kansas St. 74 68 +5.85 0.710
HOME #101 Colorado 79 62 +17.15 0.947
AWAY # 89 Utah 77 69 +8.37 0.785
AWAY # 31 BYU 73 73 +0.66 0.525
HOME #111 Oklahoma St. 82 64 +18.71 0.961
AWAY #101 Colorado 76 65 +10.15 0.831
HOME # 9 Texas Tech 73 69 +3.30 0.623
AWAY # 3 Houston 59 69 -9.35 0.188
HOME # 12 Arizona 77 72 +4.20 0.654
Here is Iowa State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #364 Mississippi Valley St. 83 44 +46.27 -7.27
HOME #236 Kansas City 82 56 +25.67 +0.33
HOME #321 IU Indy 87 52 +30.81 +4.19
NEUT # 1 Auburn 81 83 -6.18 +4.18
NEUT # 73 Dayton 89 84 +10.68 -5.68
NEUT #101 Colorado 99 71 +14.62 +13.38
HOME # 19 Marquette 81 70 +5.97 +5.03
HOME #272 Jackson St. 100 58 +28.87 +13.13
AWAY # 66 Iowa 89 80 +7.20 +1.80
HOME #215 Nebraska Omaha 83 51 +24.85 +7.15
HOME #328 Morgan St. 99 72 +34.02 -7.02
AWAY #101 Colorado 79 69 +11.12 -1.12
HOME # 25 Baylor 74 55 +7.11 +11.89
HOME # 89 Utah 82 59 +16.34 +6.66
AWAY # 9 Texas Tech 85 84 -2.84 +3.84
HOME # 10 Kansas 74 57 +4.40 +12.60
AWAY # 43 West Virginia 57 64 +3.69 -10.69
HOME # 58 UCF 108 83 +13.52 +11.48
AWAY # 57 Arizona St. 76 61 +5.75 +9.25
AWAY # 12 Arizona 75 86 -1.88 -9.12
HOME # 68 Kansas St. 61 80 +13.79 -32.79
AWAY # 10 Kansas 72 74 -2.60 0.403
HOME # 82 TCU 76 61 +15.29 0.926
AWAY # 58 UCF 82 76 +6.52 0.731
HOME # 61 Cincinnati 73 60 +12.96 0.890
HOME #101 Colorado 81 63 +18.12 0.957
AWAY # 3 Houston 61 70 -8.58 0.209
AWAY #111 Oklahoma St. 81 68 +12.71 0.885
HOME # 12 Arizona 79 74 +5.12 0.686
HOME # 31 BYU 79 70 +8.56 0.791
AWAY # 68 Kansas St. 76 69 +6.79 0.740
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, jaythawk1
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Share this page: