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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Baylor game
- asteroid
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2 months 1 week ago #33471
by asteroid
Another opportunity. It's a toss-up game, which means that Kansas has
the opportunity to pick up a half win in the projected standings. Of
course, the flip side of that is the undesirable chance of dropping a
half win. That already happened with the Houston game. But hey,
splitting a pair of toss-up games is exactly what you'd expect, so
having lost the Houston game, the Baylor game ought to be a win, right?
Sorry, that's not the way statistics works.
Adding to the intrigue is that Monday's game is also a toss-up game.
Wow, we could pick up a full win in the projected standings in the
span of three days, plus whatever the revised ratings would provide.
And this is about as close to a toss-up game as you'll find. The
Pomeroy prediction is for a fraction of a point margin. Out of 15
prognostications, 6 favor Kansas while 9 favor Baylor. Dunkel is
the most pessimistic, picking Baylor to win by 6.5 points, while
Colley is the most optimistic, picking Kansas to win by 3.7 points.
The average favors Baylor by 0.6 points, with a scatter of 2.6 points.
Baylor has the #10 offense, according to Pomeroy. But Kansas has the
#5 defense. Who wins between the unstoppable force and the immovable
object?
What I do not understand is why Pomeroy has Baylor with the #324 tempo.
That would imply low-scoring games, yet Baylor plays 149 point games
on average, 5 points more than Kansas, who has the #127 ranked tempo.
Yes, Baylor has played two overtime games and one double overtime game,
so that's the equivalent of an extra half game to pad their scoring
totals. They soared over the century mark in three other games,
though one of those involved a Division II opponent, which probably
doesn't factor into Pomeroy's ratings. The other two involved a
63 point win and a 37 point win over cupcakes.
Trends and mental toughness ratings are not statistically significant
for either team, though I'll note that the huge positive trend Kansas
had after the huge win in Orlando has completely evaporated. Both
teams are underrated, moreso Baylor by a little over a point.
The wild card in all of this are the injuries. Although KJ is back,
he was apparently on limited minutes against UCF, and there was one
instance of a floor burn that might have affected his shoulder, so
I wouldn't be surprised if he is still on limited minutes. And we
saw the effect of no Dajuan in the first half against UCF with all
the turnovers. How is his ankle? Will he be able to go? On the
other side, Roach has been going through concussion protocol; will
he be able to play? Langston Love, like Dajuan Harris, has a bum
ankle; will he play? I kind of wish I could revise the predictions
after I see who comes out dressed to play, but that would mean
waiting until minutes before tip-off.
It's been a while since we've won a game in Waco, and there is no
return game in Lawrence this season, so it's our only shot at the
Bears until the postseason.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats BU KU Defensive Stats BU KU
Points/Game 79.0 79.0 Opp Points/Game 69.9 66.0
Avg Score Margin +9.1 +11.6 Opp Effective FG % 52.4 44.2
Assists/Game 15.5 18.1 Off Rebounds/Gm 11.6 9.4
Total Rebounds/Gm 35.1 39.7 Def Rebounds/Gm 21.0 26.8
Effective FG % 53.3 53.4 Blocks/Game 3.2 4.9
Off Rebound % 35.3 29.5 Steals/Game 7.9 6.5
FTA/FGA 0.285 0.232 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.4 14.2
Turnover % 13.0 13.6
My Stats Comparison KU BU
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.55 +2.69
inconsistency 13.29 14.87
trend -0.06 ± 0.53 -0.16 ± 0.64
mental toughness -0.13 ± 0.32 -0.82 ± 0.26
average total pts 143.50 148.89
Common Opponents
================
There are five common opponents, all from conference play:
KU -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
BU -19 ISU on road (-15 neutral court)
KU -2 BU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU +14 UC on road (+18 neutral court)
BU +20 UC at home (+16 neutral court)
KU -2 BU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
BU +6 ASU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU +1 BU on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
BU -3 TCU at home ( -7 neutral court)
KU +20 BU on road (+24 neutral court)
KU +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
BU +8 KSU at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU -2 BU on road ( +2 neutral court)
Three of the comparisons favor Baylor, and by identical small amounts.
The other two favor Kansas, one by a small amount and the other by a
quite large amount. As a result, the average of the five favors Kansas
by 3.0 points, with a scatter of 9.6 points.
Not included here is the Jayhawks' 16 point exhibition loss to Arkansas
in Fayetteville, while Baylor beat the Razorbacks by 5 points on a neutral
court in the regular season.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Jeremy Roach (guard)
most points Norchand Omier (forward)
most rebounds Norchand Omier (forward)
most assists Robert Wright III (guard)
most steals VJ Edgecombe (guard)
most blocks Norchand Omier (forward)
most turnovers Norchand Omier (forward)
most fouls Norchand Omier (forward)
Guard Langston Love has a bum ankle, and they aren't saying whether he'll be
able to play. Guard Jeremy Roach is going through concusssion protocol, and
they aren't saying whether he'll be able to play. Reserve forward Yanis Ndjonga
is out with a knee injury.
15-5 13-7
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Baylor
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey -3.00 72 75 43 # 12 # 8 # 24 # 6
Pomeroy +0.40 71 71 51.5 # 8 # 7 # 28 # 10
Greenfield -2.50 70 72 # 10 # 4 # 20 # 11
Dunkel -6.50 66 72 # 15 # 24
Vegas (via Dunkel) -2.50 70 72
Dolphin Predictive -0.58 71 72 48.0 # 9 # 7 # 24 # 13
Seven Overtimes -1.00 73 74 56 # 13 # 9 # 72 # 8
DPPI -1.70 73 74.5 45.5 # 10 # 3 # 23 # 20
ESPN BPI -1.10 45.5 # 7 # 3 # 16 # 25
Whitlock +0.10 # 9 # 4 # 27 # 41
Colley Matrix +3.69 # 11 # 3 # 55 # 31
Donchess -0.70 73 73 48.4 # 10 # 4 # 39 # 14
Haslametrics +1.91 71 69 # 7 # 28
INCCStats +1.00 74 73 52.6 # 7 # 22
common opponents +3.00
NCAA NET # 8 # 29
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 10 # 31
Pomeroy offense # 29 # 10
Pomeroy defense # 5 # 76
Pomeroy tempo #127 #324
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -0.63 71.3 72.5 48.8
scatter 2.55 2.2 1.7 4.3
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #296 Howard 87 57 +29.53 +0.47
HOME # 39 North Carolina 92 89 +10.35 -7.35
NEUT # 13 Michigan St. 77 69 +1.43 +6.57
HOME #174 Oakland 78 57 +20.51 +0.49
HOME #105 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +18.08 -0.08
NEUT # 3 Duke 75 72 -5.44 +8.44
HOME #159 Furman 86 51 +20.60 +14.40
AWAY # 32 Creighton 63 76 +1.71 -14.71
AWAY # 30 Missouri 67 76 +1.54 -10.54
HOME # 97 N.C. State 75 60 +16.34 -1.34
HOME #215 Brown 87 53 +23.69 +10.31
HOME # 48 West Virginia 61 62 +11.28 -12.28
AWAY # 59 UCF 99 48 +5.77 +45.23
HOME # 56 Arizona St. 74 55 +12.25 +6.75
AWAY # 58 Cincinnati 54 40 +4.92 +9.08
AWAY # 5 Iowa St. 57 74 -5.78 -11.22
HOME # 83 Kansas St. 84 74 +15.22 -5.22
AWAY # 89 TCU 74 61 +8.25 +4.75
HOME # 1 Houston 86 92 -2.08 -3.92
HOME # 59 UCF 91 87 +12.77 -8.77
AWAY # 28 Baylor 71 71 +0.40 0.515
HOME # 5 Iowa St. 74 73 +1.22 0.546
AWAY # 83 Kansas St. 75 67 +8.22 0.781
HOME #101 Colorado 79 62 +17.43 0.950
AWAY # 84 Utah 77 69 +8.66 0.794
AWAY # 31 BYU 74 72 +1.59 0.560
HOME #123 Oklahoma St. 83 63 +20.18 0.972
AWAY #101 Colorado 76 65 +10.43 0.838
HOME # 11 Texas Tech 73 68 +4.73 0.673
AWAY # 1 Houston 59 68 -9.08 0.195
HOME # 15 Arizona 77 72 +5.23 0.689
Here is Baylor's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
AWAY # 10 Gonzaga 63 101 -6.80 -31.19
NEUT # 61 Arkansas 72 67 +4.64 +0.36
HOME #177 Sam Houston St. 104 67 +17.38 +19.62
HOME #276 Tarleton St. 104 41 +22.23 +40.77
NEUT # 14 St. John's 99 98 -2.49 +3.49
NEUT # 6 Tennessee 62 77 -5.00 -10.00
HOME #349 New Orleans 91 60 +28.71 +2.29
AWAY # 36 Connecticut 72 76 -1.59 -2.41
HOME #246 Abilene Christian 88 57 +21.49 +9.51
HOME #167 Norfolk St. 94 69 +16.27 +8.73
Div2 Arlington Baptist 107 53
HOME # 84 Utah 81 56 +10.99 +14.01
AWAY # 5 Iowa St. 55 74 -9.61 -9.39
HOME # 58 Cincinnati 68 48 +7.70 +12.30
AWAY # 56 Arizona St. 72 66 +0.87 +5.13
AWAY # 15 Arizona 70 81 -5.85 -5.15
HOME # 89 TCU 71 74 +10.75 -13.75
HOME # 83 Kansas St. 70 62 +10.70 -2.70
AWAY # 84 Utah 76 61 +3.99 +11.01
AWAY # 31 BYU 89 93 -2.51 -1.49
HOME # 8 Kansas 71 71 -0.40 0.485
AWAY # 11 Texas Tech 67 73 -6.05 0.284
HOME # 59 UCF 81 73 +8.18 0.780
AWAY # 1 Houston 57 69 -12.18 0.125
HOME # 48 West Virginia 69 62 +7.15 0.750
HOME # 15 Arizona 75 74 +1.15 0.543
AWAY #101 Colorado 74 68 +5.72 0.706
AWAY # 58 Cincinnati 66 65 +0.70 0.526
HOME #123 Oklahoma St. 81 66 +15.20 0.925
AWAY # 89 TCU 69 65 +3.75 0.639
HOME # 1 Houston 61 66 -5.18 0.312
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, hoshi
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