predictions for UCF game

The last time Kansas lost a home game, the next opponent was UCF, and
the Jayhawks took out their frustrations on the Knights in a rout whose
size is a rarity.  Well, guess what?  Kansas just lost another home game,
and the next opponent is -- you guessed it -- UCF.  The Knights are
probably thinking to themselves, why us?  Now, I do not expect a repeat
occurrence of a four-sigma event, but the Jayhawks could once again take
out their frustrations on the Knights.

UCF has exceeded the century mark in two games, but they have also given
up in excess of 100 points in two games.  Overall, they're #32 in
Pomeroy's tempo ranking.  Normally one would expect a higher-scoring
game.

UCF has a positive trend, as does Kansas; neither is statistically
significant.  Mental toughness ratings are similarly insignificant.
Kansas is underrated, while UCF is overrated.  Of course, UCF was the
other party to that four-sigma event earlier this season, so naturally
both teams have large and comparable inconsistency values.

Kansas has actually improved its projected win total since the
beginning of the conference season, but so have Houston, Iowa State,
and Arizona, and by more than Kansas has, so the gap to overcome has
grown larger.  The Jayhawks cannot afford any more breakdowns like
they did (twice!) against Houston.  And Kansas will likely need to
escape from the Fertita Center with a win to have any chance at a
conference championship, followed by a home win over Arizona to
close out the season.  Plus they need to take down Iowa State in
Allen Field House.  The Baylor and BYU road games are also projected
to be close games, but they can't afford to lose either of those
either.  The margin for error has evaporated.  At least it's not
just the Jayhawks who have suffered the sting of snatching defeat
from the jaws of victory; Iowa State suffered a total meltdown in
overtime after surrendering a more-than-half-court buzzer beater
to Arizona; the Clones managed a whole 4 points in the overtime to
drop their second conference game.

Colley is the pessimist for today's game, because he has UCF ranked
#31, the highest among the ones I look at; he's calling for just a
7 point margin.  Dunkel is the optimist, picking Kansas to win by
17.5 points.  The avergae is 12.45 points with a scatter of 2.71
points.  It won't be 51 points again, but a 20-point win would not
surprise me.  It's worth noting that UCF came within a buzzer beater
of knocking off Houston; the Knights are a capable team, currently
in the upper half of the Big 12 in projected number of wins.  One
thing the Jayhawks can NOT afford to do is to take the Knights
lightly after the 51 point shellacking in Orlando.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UCF     KU      Defensive Stats      UCF     KU
Points/Game         79.5    76.8     Opp Points/Game     78.0    64.8
Avg Score Margin    +1.5   +12.0     Opp Effective FG %  50.5    43.9
Assists/Game        14.6    18.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.9     9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.2    39.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.7    26.6
Effective FG %      49.4    53.5     Blocks/Game          4.6     4.8
Off Rebound %       29.9    29.0     Steals/Game          7.4     6.5
FTA/FGA            0.376   0.221     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.9    14.1
Turnover %          14.6    13.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UCF
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.71           -1.48    
inconsistency         13.36           13.69    
trend                 +0.10 ± 0.58    +0.48 ± 0.58
mental toughness      -0.16 ± 0.32    +0.03 ± 0.29         
average total pts     141.68          157.47 

Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all from conference play, plus the
head-to-head in Orlando, giving us five scores to compare:

KU  +19 ASU at home (+15 neutral court)
UCF  +6 ASU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU   +9 UCF at home ( +5 neutral court)

KU   -6 UH  at home (-10 neutral court)
UCF  -1 UH  at home ( -5 neutral court)
KU   -1 UCF at home ( -5 neutral court)

KU  -17 ISU on road (-13 neutral court)
UCF -25 ISU on road (-21 neutral court)
KU  +12 UCF at home ( +8 neutral court)

KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
UCF +27 TCU at home (+23 neutral court)
KU   -2 UCF at home ( -6 neutral court)

KU  +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court)
KU  +59 UCF at home (+55 neutral court)

Two of the comparisons actually favor UCF, but only marginally.  The
other three favor Kansas, with the head-to-head favoring Kansas massively.
The average is 15.4 points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 25.1 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Darius Johnson (guard)
most points        Keyshawn Hall (guard)
most rebounds      Keyshawn Hall (guard)
most assists       Darius Johnson (guard)
most steals        Darius Johnson (guard)
most blocks        Moustapha Thiam (center)
most turnovers     Darius Johnson (guard)
most fouls         Moustapha Thiam (center)

Reserve guard Jaylin Sellers is questionable for the game; he is sixth on the
team in minutes per game and points per game.  Reserve guard Cameron Simpson
is out.

Interesting that Greenfield lists KJ, Zach, Noah, and Jamari as out with
injuries or redshirts, but not a peep about Elmarko.

                                                          14-5           13-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          UCF
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +10.00   80   70       82       # 11   #  5    # 51   # 27
Pomeroy                +13.43   82   69       89.8     #  7   #  6    # 63   # 26
Greenfield             +13.50   83   70                #  9   #  3    # 59   # 41
Dunkel                 +17.50   80   63                # 24           # 62
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +13.50   83   69                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +14.45   83   68       89.0     #  8   #  5    # 66   # 47
Seven Overtimes         +8.00   79   71       72       # 16   #  9    # 43   # 30
DPPI                   +11.70   81   69.5     81.8     #  8   #  3    # 51   # 12 
ESPN BPI               +14.00                 90.4     #  7   #  3    # 64   # 31
Whitlock               +10.90                          #  9   #  4    # 55   # 12
Colley Matrix           +7.24                          # 13   #  5    # 31   # 14
Donchess               +11.00   80   69       86.0     #  9   #  4    # 55   # 15
Haslametrics           +13.15   81   68                #  7           # 52
INCCStats              +13.00   83   70       89.7     #  7           # 65
common opponents       +15.40             
NCAA NET                                               #  8           # 65
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  9           # 51
Pomeroy offense                                        # 31           # 52
Pomeroy defense                                        #  4           # 86
Pomeroy tempo                                          #147           # 32
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +12.45   81.4 68.8     85.1
scatter                  2.71    1.5  2.1      6.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #293 Howard                      87  57   +29.80    +0.20
HOME   # 38 North Carolina              92  89   +10.36    -7.36
NEUT   # 17 Michigan St.                77  69    +2.18    +5.82
HOME   #180 Oakland                     78  57   +20.85    +0.15
HOME   #118 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +19.02    -1.02
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        75  72    -5.10    +8.10
HOME   #163 Furman                      86  51   +20.87   +14.13
AWAY   # 33 Creighton                   63  76    +2.11   -15.11
AWAY   # 30 Missouri                    67  76    +1.73   -10.73
HOME   # 97 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.39    -1.39
HOME   #223 Brown                       87  53   +24.36    +9.64
HOME   # 48 West Virginia               61  62   +11.28   -12.28
AWAY   # 63 UCF                         99  48    +6.43   +44.57
HOME   # 59 Arizona St.                 74  55   +12.56    +6.44
AWAY   # 53 Cincinnati                  54  40    +4.90    +9.10
AWAY   #  5 Iowa St.                    57  74    -5.57   -11.43
HOME   # 93 Kansas St.                  84  74   +16.23    -6.23
AWAY   # 88 TCU                         74  61    +8.51    +4.49
HOME   #  2 Houston                     86  92    -1.36    -4.64
HOME   # 63 UCF                         82  69   +13.43             0.898
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      70  70    +0.65             0.525
HOME   #  5 Iowa St.                    73  72    +1.43             0.554
AWAY   # 93 Kansas St.                  75  66    +9.23             0.808
HOME   #100 Colorado                    79  61   +17.63             0.952
AWAY   # 89 Utah                        77  68    +9.04             0.804
AWAY   # 31 BYU                         72  71    +1.84             0.569
HOME   #107 Oklahoma St.                82  62   +19.48             0.967
AWAY   #100 Colorado                    75  65   +10.63             0.843
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  72  67    +5.05             0.683
AWAY   #  2 Houston                     59  67    -8.36             0.215
HOME   # 14 Arizona                     76  71    +5.50             0.698

Here is UCF's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 16 Texas A&M                   64  61    -4.08    +7.08
HOME   #136 Purdue Fort Wayne           75  68   +11.12    -4.12
HOME   #115 Florida Atlantic           100  94   +10.31    -4.31
HOME   #303 Tennessee Tech              80  69   +21.24   -10.24
NEUT   # 15 Wisconsin                   70  86    -7.80    -8.20
NEUT   # 67 LSU                        102 109    +0.71    -7.71
HOME   #122 Milwaukee                   84  76   +10.57    -2.57
HOME   #167 Cal Baptist                 74  59   +12.44    +2.56
HOME   #280 Tarleton St.                66  51   +19.14    -4.14
NEUT   #274 Tulsa                       88  75   +15.59    -2.59
HOME   #149 Jacksonville                86  66   +11.80    +8.20
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                  87  83   -11.39   +15.39
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      48  99    -6.43   -44.57
HOME   #100 Colorado                    75  74    +8.34    -7.34
AWAY   # 14 Arizona                     80  88   -11.54    +3.54
AWAY   # 59 Arizona St.                 95  89    -3.92    +9.92
HOME   #  2 Houston                     68  69   -10.56    +9.56
AWAY   #  5 Iowa St.                    83 108   -15.76    -9.24
HOME   # 88 TCU                         85  58    +6.32   +20.68
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      69  82   -13.43             0.102
HOME   # 31 BYU                         77  78    -0.62             0.477
HOME   # 53 Cincinnati                  72  69    +2.76             0.603
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      72  80    -8.57             0.209
HOME   #  5 Iowa St.                    74  83    -8.76             0.204
AWAY   #100 Colorado                    77  75    +1.34             0.550
AWAY   #107 Oklahoma St.                80  77    +2.89             0.608
HOME   # 89 Utah                        81  75    +6.44             0.729
HOME   # 93 Kansas St.                  80  73    +7.02             0.747
AWAY   # 88 TCU                         72  73    -0.68             0.474
HOME   #107 Oklahoma St.                83  73    +9.89             0.825
AWAY   # 48 West Virginia               68  73    -4.77             0.326