predictions for Houston game

Houston has played some decent opponents.  They played Auburn on a neutral
court, and lost.  They played Alabama on a neutral court, and lost.  And
in their worst performance of the season, they played San Diego State on a
neutral court, and lost.  Well okay, San Diego State isn't exactly a Top
Ten opponent, but Pomeroy has them at #47; the most comparable team that
Kansas has played is #44 Cincinnati.  Anyway, the point here is that
Houston hasn't beaten a Top Ten opponent whereas Kansas has.  In fact,
the highest ranked team that Houston has beaten in #38 BYU.  Not exactly
what I would call giant killers.

Yes, Houston does have a better record, by a game.  Yes, Houston is
ranked higher in most polls.  The Massey composite has Kansas averaging
#10 while Houston averages #7.  What stands out is the Cougar defense,
which Pomeroy has ranked #1.  But Kansas isn't that far behind at #4.
Expect a defensive low-scoring battle.  Pomeroy's #1 offense (Auburn)
did manage to hang 74 points on Houston, while Pomeroy's #2 offense
(Alabama) did even better with 85 points.  The San Diego State game is
a bit hard to understand, but hey, there are statistical outliers (ask
UCF after the Kansas game).  UCF's 68 points was almost enough to take
down the Cougars; otherwise, the most any Big 12 team has managed is
57 points (Kansas State).  At the opposite extreme, Utah scored only
36 points, less than a point per minute.  Yikes!

Houston has a negative mental toughness rating, and it is statistically
significant at the three-sigma level (over 99 percent confidence).
That means Houston plays below expectation against tough opponents and
above expectation against easier opponents.  I think Kansas qualifies
as a tough opponent.

Dunkel is the pessimist, picking Houston to win by 8 points.  The
optimistic score is derived from the common opponent comparison,
which happens to include the UCF games, in which Kansas dominated
and Houston survived a scare.  There are a few prognosticators who
are picking Kansas, but the average of 15 predictions has Houston
winning by a point.  Don't count the Jayhawks out.

It's an important game in the projected conference standings.  As a
toss up, the winner will pick up a full game, because the winner will
gain a half projected win while the loser will lose a half projected
win.  With Kansas currently 2.7 projected wins behind Houston, a win
will be huge, keeping conference championship hopes alive, but a loss
would make the difference really difficult to overcome.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UH      KU      Defensive Stats      UH      KU
Points/Game         75.8    76.3     Opp Points/Game     53.9    63.3
Avg Score Margin   +21.9   +13.0     Opp Effective FG %  41.8    43.3
Assists/Game        13.2    18.2     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.7     9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.9    38.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.4    26.3
Effective FG %      52.8    53.6     Blocks/Game          5.6     5.1
Off Rebound %       38.5    29.3     Steals/Game          8.7     6.7
FTA/FGA            0.264   0.207     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.4    13.9
Turnover %          11.5    13.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UH 
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.01           +4.50    
inconsistency         13.50           11.20    
trend                 +0.25 ± 0.63    -0.07 ± 0.52
mental toughness      -0.13 ± 0.33    -0.78 ± 0.26         
average total pts     139.67          129.78 

Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, all from conference play:

KU  +13 TCU on road (+17 neutral court)
UH  +19 TCU at home (+15 neutral court)
KU   +6 UH  at home ( +2 neutral court)

KU  +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral court)
UH  +30 KSU on road (+34 neutral court)
KU  -24 UH  at home (-28 neutral court)

KU   -1 WVU at home ( -5 neutral court)
UH  +16 WVU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU  -11 UH  at home ( -7 neutral court)

KU  +51 UCF on road (+55 neutral court)
UH   +1 UCF on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU  +54 UH  at home (+50 neutral court)

Whenever UCF appears as a common opponent, we're going to have the issue
of the four-sigma event.  But I'm glad it's there, because it helps to
offset the Kansas State common opponent comparison, not to mention the
West Virginia comparison.  The average is actually 6.25 points in favor
of Kansas, with a huge 34.12 point scatter.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       LJ Cryer (guard)
most points        LJ Cryer (guard)
most rebounds      J'Wan Roberts (forward)
most assists       Milos Uzan (guard)
most steals        Terrance Arceneaux (guard)
most blocks        Joseph Tugler (forward)
most turnovers     J'Wan Roberts (forward)
most fouls         Joseph Tugler (forward)

Guard Emanual Sharp has an ankle injury, and it is uncertain whether he
can play; he's nearly tied with Cryer in points per game.  Reserve guard
Ramon Walker Jr. is out with a hand injury.

Interesting that Greenfield lists KJ, Zach, Noah, and Jamari as out with
injuries or redshirts, but not a peep about Elmarko.

                                                          14-4           15-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Houston
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -2.00   65   67       43       # 11   #  7    #  6   # 46
Pomeroy                 -0.82   62   62       46.9     #  7   #  7    #  3   # 48
Greenfield              -2.00   63   65                #  8   #  5    #  3   # 14
Dunkel                  -8.00   56   64                # 18           #  2
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -1.50   63   65                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -2.66   60   63       40.1     #  8   #  5    #  1   # 14
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   68   67       59       # 18   # 10    #  3   # 31
DPPI                    -3.40   65   68       41.0     #  8   #  3    #  3   # 32 
ESPN BPI                -2.20                 41.4     #  6   #  5    #  1   # 25
Whitlock                +0.49                          #  8   #  6    #  3   # 28
Colley Matrix           +4.00                          # 11   #  5    # 14   # 26
Donchess                -2.60   68   70       43.1     # 10   #  7    #  6   # 29
Haslametrics            -6.09   60   66                #  7           #  1
INCCStats               +1.00   65   64       51.4     #  6           #  3
common opponents        +6.25             
NCAA NET                                               #  8           #  3
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 10           #  7
Pomeroy offense                                        # 34           # 13
Pomeroy defense                                        #  4           #  1
Pomeroy tempo                                          #150           #361
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -1.24   63.2 65.6     45.7
scatter                  3.55    3.6  2.3      6.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #290 Howard                      87  57   +29.66    +0.34
HOME   # 32 North Carolina              92  89    +9.98    -6.98
NEUT   # 13 Michigan St.                77  69    +2.25    +5.75
HOME   #176 Oakland                     78  57   +21.06    -0.06
HOME   #130 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +19.60    -1.60
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        75  72    -5.78    +8.78
HOME   #165 Furman                      86  51   +21.26   +13.74
AWAY   # 34 Creighton                   63  76    +2.68   -15.68
AWAY   # 31 Missouri                    67  76    +2.33   -11.33
HOME   # 97 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.64    -1.64
HOME   #217 Brown                       87  53   +24.04    +9.96
HOME   # 42 West Virginia               61  62   +10.66   -11.66
AWAY   # 68 UCF                         99  48    +7.83   +43.17
HOME   # 55 Arizona St.                 74  55   +12.52    +6.48
AWAY   # 44 Cincinnati                  54  40    +3.99   +10.01
AWAY   #  4 Iowa St.                    57  74    -5.72   -11.28
HOME   # 96 Kansas St.                  84  74   +17.05    -7.05
AWAY   # 79 TCU                         74  61    +7.70    +5.30
HOME   #  3 Houston                     62  62    -0.82             0.469
HOME   # 68 UCF                         83  68   +14.83             0.919
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      70  69    +1.33             0.550
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    73  72    +1.28             0.548
AWAY   # 96 Kansas St.                  75  65   +10.05             0.829
HOME   # 98 Colorado                    79  61   +17.81             0.954
AWAY   # 83 Utah                        76  68    +8.63             0.793
AWAY   # 38 BYU                         73  70    +3.21             0.619
HOME   #117 Oklahoma St.                83  63   +20.11             0.971
AWAY   # 98 Colorado                    75  64   +10.81             0.846
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  73  68    +4.80             0.675
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     58  66    -7.82             0.230
HOME   # 16 Arizona                     77  71    +6.28             0.724

Here is Houston's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #272 Jackson St.                 97  40   +30.80   +26.20
NEUT   #  2 Auburn                      69  74    -1.03    -3.97
HOME   #326 Louisiana                   91  45   +33.19   +12.81
HOME   #166 Hofstra                     80  44   +23.10   +12.90
NEUT   #  8 Alabama                     80  85    +4.91    -9.91
NEUT   # 87 Notre Dame                  65  54   +14.46    -3.46
NEUT   # 47 San Diego St.               70  73   +11.33   -14.33
HOME   # 88 Butler                      79  51   +18.71    +9.29
HOME   #104 Troy                        62  42   +20.99    -0.99
HOME   #202 Toledo                      78  49   +26.96    +2.04
HOME   #168 Texas A&M Corpus Christi    87  51   +25.15   +10.85
AWAY   #117 Oklahoma St.                60  47   +15.97    -2.97
HOME   # 38 BYU                         86  55   +13.73   +17.27
HOME   # 79 TCU                         65  46   +17.76    +1.24
AWAY   # 96 Kansas St.                  87  57   +12.86   +17.14
HOME   # 42 West Virginia               70  54   +13.93    +2.07
AWAY   # 68 UCF                         69  68   +11.26   -10.26
HOME   # 83 Utah                        70  36   +18.85   +15.15
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      62  62    +0.82             0.531
AWAY   # 42 West Virginia               61  54    +6.93             0.744
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  67  59    +8.78             0.797
HOME   #117 Oklahoma St.                77  54   +22.97             0.985
AWAY   # 98 Colorado                    70  56   +13.67             0.902
HOME   # 28 Baylor                      68  57   +11.89             0.870
AWAY   # 16 Arizona                     69  65    +3.46             0.628
AWAY   # 55 Arizona St.                 67  58    +8.88             0.799
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    69  63    +5.93             0.713
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                  64  62    +1.78             0.567
HOME   # 44 Cincinnati                  65  51   +14.33             0.912
HOME   #  7 Kansas                      66  58    +7.82             0.770
AWAY   # 28 Baylor                      65  60    +4.89             0.678