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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Kansas State game
- asteroid
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2 months 4 weeks ago #33417
by asteroid
So, it looks like we'll be without KJ. We lose a good defender, but an inconsistent
rebounder (he's been better in recent games). Will one of the transfers take
advantage of the extra minutes to strut his stuff and earn more playing time moving
forward?
Kansas State is in a battle with Colorado and Oklahoma State for being the worst
team in the Big 12 conference. Projected to win only five conference games, they
already have one conference win in their hip pocket, so four are still in the offing.
Will today's game be one of them? Unlikely, but hey, it's a rivalry game. Then recall
what happened in Columbia. Okay, okay, so the situations are not comparable. First of
all, the game in Columbia was a road game, while today's game is a home game. Second
of all, Missouri is Pomeroy's #34 team with a 14-3 record in a tough conference, while
Kansas State is #98 with a 7-9 record. Kansas knows they need to win this game to
remain relevant in the race for the Big 12 championship, whereas Kansas State knows
that a win in the Phog will be a defining moment in an otherwise forgettable season.
Motivation for both teams.
Massey is the pessimist, picking Kansas to win by only 11 points, whereas the common
opponent Howard is the optimist, suggesting that Kansas should be a 23 point favorite.
The average of 15 prognostications favors Kansas by 17 points with a scatter of 3 points.
The only statistic for which Kansas State has a distinct edge over Kansas is the rate
at which they get to the charity stripe. The Wildcats do grab a slightly higher number
of offensive rebounds per game, and they also steal a slightly higher number of balls,
but those differences aren't terribly significant.
The last time the Jayhawks lost a game, they turned around in the next game and
absolutely dominated. Since then, the defense has been superb. And oddly enough
despite losing by 17 points to Iowa State and allowing 74 points to be scored,
Pomeroy's defensive ranking for Kansas IMPROVED from #4 to #3. Of course, without
KJ, the defense may not be quite as good, but Kansas State has only the #134 offense.
And the Kansas offense may show up against the #95 defense.
Kansas still has a positive trend in the aftermath of the UCF game while Kansas State
has a negative trend, though neither is statistically significant. Ditto for the
mental toughness ratings, which are both negative and of comparable value. But that's
a plus for the stronger team. They could mean an extra 8 points for Kansas in the
margin.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats KSU KU Defensive Stats KSU KU
Points/Game 73.2 76.0 Opp Points/Game 71.1 62.8
Avg Score Margin +2.1 +13.2 Opp Effective FG % 50.2 42.9
Assists/Game 16.2 18.1 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.3 9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm 33.9 39.5 Def Rebounds/Gm 20.8 26.7
Effective FG % 52.3 52.8 Blocks/Game 3.5 5.2
Off Rebound % 29.6 28.3 Steals/Game 7.6 7.0
FTA/FGA 0.291 0.199 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.1 13.9
Turnover % 16.1 13.2
My Stats Comparison KU KSU
=================== ============= ============
performance +2.19 -0.45
inconsistency 14.26 10.94
trend +0.51 ± 0.79 -0.44 ± 0.60
mental toughness -0.16 ± 0.36 -0.21 ± 0.22
average total pts 138.81 144.31
Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, from conference play:
KU +14 UC on road (+18 neutral court)
KSU +3 UC at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU +23 KSU at home (+19 neutrao court)
The Cincinnati game was Kansas State's best game since the Pine Bluff
non-conference game, and it pales in comparison to the Jayhawks' effort.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most points David N'Guessan (forward)
most rebounds David N'Guessan (forward)
most assists Dug McDaniel (guard)
most steals Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most blocks Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most turnovers Coleman Hawkins (forward)
most fouls Achor Achor (forward)
12-4 7-9
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Kansas State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +11.00 76 65 85 # 15 # 5 # 95 # 55
Pomeroy +18.07 79 60 95.6 # 7 # 7 # 98 # 56
Greenfield +14.50 77 62.5 # 10 # 4 # 93 # 64
Dunkel +19.00 81 62 # 22 #118
Vegas (via Dunkel) +15.50 78 62
Dolphin Predictive +16.63 79 62 92.7 # 8 # 4 #109 # 75
Seven Overtimes +13.00 77 64 86 # 21 # 8 #119 # 93
DPPI +18.50 80 61 90.8 # 7 # 4 # 97 # 72
ESPN BPI +17.20 94.0 # 7 # 4 # 89 # 38
Whitlock +18.65 # 8 # 8 #116 # 66
Colley Matrix +19.43 # 13 # 3 #167 # 53
Donchess +13.80 80 66 91.5 # 9 # 4 # 99 # 82
Haslametrics +18.40 78 59 # 8 # 95
INCCStats +17.00 78 61 95 # 5 # 94
common opponents +23.00
NCAA NET # 9 #132
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 9 #115
Pomeroy offense # 44 #134
Pomeroy defense # 3 # 95
Pomeroy tempo #135 #184
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average 16.91 78.5 62.2 91.3
scatter 2.99 1.5 2.1 4.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #291 Howard 87 57 +29.83 +0.17
HOME # 28 North Carolina 92 89 +9.50 -6.50
NEUT # 15 Michigan St. 77 69 +2.28 +5.72
HOME #177 Oakland 78 57 +21.65 -0.65
HOME #143 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +20.70 -2.70
NEUT # 2 Duke 75 72 -5.79 +8.79
HOME #136 Furman 86 51 +20.20 +14.80
AWAY # 42 Creighton 63 76 +4.36 -17.36
AWAY # 34 Missouri 67 76 +2.91 -11.91
HOME # 93 N.C. State 75 60 +16.45 -1.45
HOME #204 Brown 87 53 +23.84 +10.16
HOME # 41 West Virginia 61 62 +10.83 -11.83
AWAY # 71 UCF 99 48 +8.46 +42.54
HOME # 64 Arizona St. 74 55 +13.83 +5.17
AWAY # 39 Cincinnati 54 40 +3.45 +10.55
AWAY # 4 Iowa St. 57 74 -6.50 -10.50
HOME # 98 Kansas St. 79 60 +18.07 0.956
AWAY # 85 TCU 70 61 +8.66 0.793
HOME # 3 Houston 62 63 -0.78 0.471
HOME # 71 UCF 82 67 +15.46 0.928
AWAY # 20 Baylor 69 69 +0.04 0.501
HOME # 4 Iowa St. 73 72 +0.50 0.519
AWAY # 98 Kansas St. 75 64 +11.07 0.852
HOME # 90 Colorado 77 61 +16.62 0.942
AWAY # 70 Utah 77 69 +8.24 0.782
AWAY # 43 BYU 74 70 +4.29 0.657
HOME #118 Oklahoma St. 82 61 +20.21 0.972
AWAY # 90 Colorado 74 64 +9.62 0.818
HOME # 17 Texas Tech 73 67 +6.19 0.721
AWAY # 3 Houston 59 67 -7.78 0.231
HOME # 14 Arizona 77 71 +5.84 0.710
Here is Kansas State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #342 New Orleans 89 65 +19.42 +4.58
HOME #173 Cleveland St. 77 64 +7.84 +5.16
HOME # 68 LSU 65 76 +0.03 -11.03
HOME #364 Mississippi Valley St. 74 56 +31.77 -13.77
NEUT #120 George Washington 83 71 +1.78 +10.22
NEUT # 81 Liberty 65 67 -2.51 +0.51
NEUT #193 Longwood 80 64 +5.82 +10.18
HOME #363 Arkansas Pine Bluff 120 73 +26.20 +20.80
AWAY # 21 St. John's 71 88 -14.58 -2.42
NEUT # 83 Drake 70 73 -2.24 -0.76
AWAY #134 Wichita St. 65 84 -0.77 -18.23
HOME # 39 Cincinnati 70 67 -3.49 +6.49
AWAY # 85 TCU 62 63 -5.61 +4.61
AWAY #118 Oklahoma St. 66 79 -2.03 -10.97
HOME # 3 Houston 57 87 -13.79 -16.21
HOME # 17 Texas Tech 57 61 -7.69 +3.69
AWAY # 7 Kansas 60 79 -18.07 0.044
AWAY # 20 Baylor 64 78 -13.84 0.095
HOME # 41 West Virginia 65 68 -2.96 0.390
HOME #118 Oklahoma St. 76 71 +4.97 0.681
AWAY # 4 Iowa St. 63 85 -21.18 0.023
AWAY # 64 Arizona St. 67 75 -7.75 0.232
HOME # 7 Kansas 64 75 -11.07 0.148
HOME # 14 Arizona 71 81 -9.17 0.193
AWAY # 43 BYU 68 78 -10.11 0.170
AWAY # 70 Utah 71 78 -6.85 0.259
HOME # 64 Arizona St. 71 71 -0.75 0.472
AWAY # 71 UCF 73 79 -6.73 0.262
HOME # 90 Colorado 72 70 +1.94 0.573
AWAY # 39 Cincinnati 60 70 -10.49 0.161
HOME # 4 Iowa St. 67 81 -14.18 0.090
The following user(s) said Thank You: hairyhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, jaythawk1
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