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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Iowa State game
- asteroid
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3 months 3 days ago #33389
by asteroid
Iowa State has been very consistent. In only two games this season have the
Cyclones played double digits above or below expectation, and both of those
came against non-conference opponents. Fortunately, Iowa State can maintain
that status and still lose to Kansas.
None of the usual prognosticators expect that to happen, however. Dunkel
is the optimist, expecting Kansas to lose by only 2 points. The DPPI is the
pessimist, expecting Kansas to lose by 8.5 points. The average is 4.7 points
with a scatter of 1.8 points. The average excluses Seven Overtimes, whose
web site isn't responding as of 12:10 UT.
With only a 30 percent chance of winning, a win by Kansas would go a long
way toward elimiating the gap in projected win numbers. Kansas would gain
0.7 of a projected win while Iowa State would be simultaneously losing 0.7
of a proejcted win. The revised computer ratings would likely shrink the
gap by more than 0.5 projected wins, with the exact amount depending on
just how large the margin turns out to be. A loss by Kansas would put the
Jayhawks three games back with fifteen to play.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats ISU KU Defensive Stats ISU KU
Points/Game 86.2 77.3 Opp Points/Game 65.9 62.1
Avg Score Margin +20.3 +15.2 Opp Effective FG % 47.0 42.6
Assists/Game 16.7 18.3 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.7 9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm 36.9 39.9 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.3 26.9
Effective FG % 56.3 53.3 Blocks/Game 3.7 4.9
Off Rebound % 33.0 28.8 Steals/Game 9.9 7.1
FTA/FGA 0.407 0.199 Personal Fouls/Gm 14.8 13.7
Turnover % 12.1 12.7
My Stats Comparison KU ISU
=================== ============= ============
performance +2.57 +1.13
inconsistency 14.34 6.73
trend +0.98 ± 0.85 +0.32 ± 0.41
mental toughness -0.01 ± 0.40 +0.16 ± 0.12
average total pts 139.33 152.07
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Kershon Gilbert (guard)
most points Curtis Jones (guard)
most rebounds Joshua Jefferson (forward)
most assists Kershon Gilbert (guard)
most steals Tamin Lipsey (guard)
most blocks Dishon Jackson (center)
most turnovers Kershon Gilbert (guard)
most fouls Dishon Jackson (center)
12-3 14-1
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Iowa State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey -4.00 67 71 38 # 13 # 12 # 3 # 19
Pomeroy -5.32 71 76 30.8 # 7 # 13 # 4 # 54
Greenfield -6.00 69 75 # 7 # 6 # 4 # 8
Dunkel -2.00 75 77 # 20 # 3
Vegas (via Dunkel) -5.50 69 75
Dolphin Predictive -3.06 70 73 39.5 # 5 # 5 # 7 # 10
Seven Overtimes # 15 # 13 # 86 # 88
DPPI -8.50 69 77 23.5 # 7 # 3 # 4 # 61
ESPN BPI -3.50 36.5 # 6 # 8 # 5 # 56
Whitlock -6.05 # 8 # 8 # 3 # 41
Colley Matrix -3.65 # 11 # 6 # 10 # 58
Donchess -6.40 72 79 28.8 # 10 # 7 # 2 # 52
Haslametrics -3.71 69 73 # 6 # 4
INCCStats -3.00 72 75 38 # 6 # 4
common opponents
NCAA NET # 8 # 6
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 9 # 3
Pomeroy offense # 31 # 7
Pomeroy defense # 4 # 10
Pomeroy tempo #142 #102
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average -4.67 70.3 75.1 33.6
scatter 1.80 2.3 2.3 6.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #286 Howard 87 57 +30.23 -0.23
HOME # 31 North Carolina 92 89 +10.34 -7.34
NEUT # 14 Michigan St. 77 69 +2.43 +5.57
HOME #182 Oakland 78 57 +22.12 -1.12
HOME #143 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +21.47 -3.47
NEUT # 2 Duke 75 72 -5.42 +8.42
HOME #137 Furman 86 51 +20.78 +14.22
AWAY # 42 Creighton 63 76 +4.75 -17.75
AWAY # 33 Missouri 67 76 +3.28 -12.28
HOME # 92 N.C. State 75 60 +16.84 -1.84
HOME #204 Brown 87 53 +24.46 +9.54
HOME # 40 West Virginia 61 62 +11.10 -12.10
AWAY # 72 UCF 99 48 +8.87 +42.13
HOME # 62 Arizona St. 74 55 +14.34 +4.66
AWAY # 39 Cincinnati 54 40 +3.91 +10.09
AWAY # 4 Iowa St. 71 76 -5.32 0.308
HOME # 96 Kansas St. 79 61 +18.55 0.960
AWAY # 73 TCU 71 62 +8.48 0.789
HOME # 3 Houston 63 63 -0.19 0.493
HOME # 72 UCF 83 67 +15.87 0.933
AWAY # 22 Baylor 70 70 +0.59 0.522
HOME # 4 Iowa St. 74 73 +1.68 0.563
AWAY # 96 Kansas St. 76 64 +11.55 0.862
HOME # 86 Colorado 78 61 +16.90 0.945
AWAY # 79 Utah 79 69 +9.53 0.816
AWAY # 46 BYU 75 70 +4.86 0.677
HOME #113 Oklahoma St. 83 62 +20.85 0.976
AWAY # 86 Colorado 75 65 +9.90 0.825
HOME # 17 Texas Tech 74 67 +6.79 0.739
AWAY # 3 Houston 60 67 -7.19 0.248
HOME # 15 Arizona 78 72 +6.21 0.721
Here is Iowa State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #364 Mississippi Valley St. 83 44 +48.99 -9.99
HOME #226 Kansas City 82 56 +27.57 -1.57
HOME #319 IU Indy 87 52 +33.09 +1.91
NEUT # 1 Auburn 81 83 -4.03 +2.03
NEUT # 55 Dayton 89 84 +11.00 -6.00
NEUT # 86 Colorado 99 71 +15.34 +12.66
HOME # 13 Marquette 81 70 +7.72 +3.28
HOME #283 Jackson St. 100 58 +32.47 +9.53
AWAY # 47 Iowa 89 80 +7.49 +1.51
HOME #240 Nebraska Omaha 83 51 +29.27 +2.73
HOME #339 Morgan St. 99 72 +37.87 -10.87
AWAY # 86 Colorado 79 69 +11.84 -1.84
HOME # 22 Baylor 74 55 +9.36 +9.64
HOME # 79 Utah 82 59 +18.53 +4.47
AWAY # 17 Texas Tech 85 84 +1.55 -0.55
HOME # 7 Kansas 76 71 +5.32 0.692
AWAY # 40 West Virginia 73 67 +5.90 0.711
HOME # 72 UCF 89 71 +17.87 0.954
AWAY # 62 Arizona St. 79 70 +9.25 0.809
AWAY # 15 Arizona 80 79 +1.10 0.541
HOME # 96 Kansas St. 85 64 +20.50 0.974
AWAY # 7 Kansas 73 74 -1.68 0.437
HOME # 73 TCU 79 62 +17.37 0.950
AWAY # 72 UCF 85 74 +10.87 0.848
HOME # 39 Cincinnati 75 62 +12.72 0.885
HOME # 86 Colorado 84 65 +18.84 0.963
AWAY # 3 Houston 64 70 -5.59 0.299
AWAY #113 Oklahoma St. 85 69 +15.89 0.933
HOME # 15 Arizona 84 75 +8.10 0.778
HOME # 46 BYU 84 70 +13.74 0.903
AWAY # 96 Kansas St. 81 68 +13.50 0.899
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- NotOstertag
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3 months 2 days ago #33391
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
The team needs to look at tonight as a huge opportunity, not some kind of insurmountable challenge. If KU can pull off a win tonight, they'll be back in the conversation as a top seed in March and will have gone a long way toward rectifying the horrible collapses vs. Mizzou and WVU.
So step #1 is to get into the mindset that this game is their big chance and they need to jump on it.
Having said that, despite winning the last 3 (two on the road) there are still some major flaws that need to be addressed. Most importantly, KU is still looking for an answer from the 3 point line, and KU needs to get to the free throw line more. Mayo has been good from 3 but disappeared last game. Griffen shot well last game but has also been inconsistent. Storr is still a mystery wrapped in an enigma. We're absolutely going to need somebody (preferably more) to knock down some jumpers to open up the paint for Hunter.
As for Hunter (and KJ and everyone actually) we need to be aggressive going to the rim when we're inside. When Hunter misses a baby hook, he's almost never fouled, and we're likely to lose the possession. if he were to try to muscle his way to the rim, he might still miss, but the odds of getting fouled are much higher since there's likely to be contact. This opens up 3 point opportunities or at least a way to get SOME points from the free throw line.
Honestly, I'm not worried about our defense. i think most of the guys who are getting minutes realize that Self wants to see them defend first and foremost. I think we should hold our own in that regard.
Finally, there's the whole "energy" component. To me, I'm looking at Shak, KJ and Zeke to come out keyed up. Hunter doesn't have that kind of personality, and DeJuan isn't a chest pounder. If the other 3 can come out and punch ISU in the face a couple of times right away, their energy can take some of the air out of Hilton and give us a fighting chance.
All that said, the numbers say we'll probably lose. If we can put in a good showing and take ISU down to the last couple of possessions, losing won't hurt much. However, if ISU runs us out of the gym, my feeling is that this will be another incidence of where a talent-loaded roster didn't live up to their potential.
So step #1 is to get into the mindset that this game is their big chance and they need to jump on it.
Having said that, despite winning the last 3 (two on the road) there are still some major flaws that need to be addressed. Most importantly, KU is still looking for an answer from the 3 point line, and KU needs to get to the free throw line more. Mayo has been good from 3 but disappeared last game. Griffen shot well last game but has also been inconsistent. Storr is still a mystery wrapped in an enigma. We're absolutely going to need somebody (preferably more) to knock down some jumpers to open up the paint for Hunter.
As for Hunter (and KJ and everyone actually) we need to be aggressive going to the rim when we're inside. When Hunter misses a baby hook, he's almost never fouled, and we're likely to lose the possession. if he were to try to muscle his way to the rim, he might still miss, but the odds of getting fouled are much higher since there's likely to be contact. This opens up 3 point opportunities or at least a way to get SOME points from the free throw line.
Honestly, I'm not worried about our defense. i think most of the guys who are getting minutes realize that Self wants to see them defend first and foremost. I think we should hold our own in that regard.
Finally, there's the whole "energy" component. To me, I'm looking at Shak, KJ and Zeke to come out keyed up. Hunter doesn't have that kind of personality, and DeJuan isn't a chest pounder. If the other 3 can come out and punch ISU in the face a couple of times right away, their energy can take some of the air out of Hilton and give us a fighting chance.
All that said, the numbers say we'll probably lose. If we can put in a good showing and take ISU down to the last couple of possessions, losing won't hurt much. However, if ISU runs us out of the gym, my feeling is that this will be another incidence of where a talent-loaded roster didn't live up to their potential.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- LKF_HAWK
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3 months 2 days ago #33392
by LKF_HAWK
Make it a good old fashioned rock fight!
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