Big 12 projection, Round 4

A Kansas win in Ames would pull the Jayhawks nearly even with the Clones.  From the game
probability the gap would shrink by 1.4 projected wins, and the ensuing computer ratings
adjustment would probably be worth another half win or so, depending on the actual margin
of the hypothetical victory.

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 4   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game and Prediction
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ------------------------
#  4  Iowa State     15.527 15.922 16.101 16.163 16.611 16.683   4  0  Wed  KU  77-71
#  3  Houston        15.529 15.675 16.158 16.213 16.335 16.488   4  0  Wed  WVU 67-53
#  7  Kansas         13.280 11.900 13.337 13.629 14.048 14.372   3  1  Wed @ISU 71-77
# 15  Arizona        11.682 11.856 12.809 13.845 13.933 13.643   4  0  Tue  BU  78-74
# 18  Baylor         11.852 12.436 11.677 12.383 12.789 12.769   3  1  Tue @UA  74-78
# 17  Texas Tech     12.489 10.936 11.993 12.588 12.140 12.255   2  2  Tue @KSU 78-69 road win
# 42  West Virginia   9.149 10.353 11.156 10.165 10.631 10.781   3  1  Wed @UH  53-67
# 47  BYU             9.908 10.807 10.166  9.528  9.005  8.877   1  3  Tue  OSU 81-70
# 38  Cincinnati     12.499 11.444 10.583  9.656  9.237  8.667   0  4  Wed @CU  66-64 road win
# 75  UCF             7.011  8.555  7.465  7.835  7.749  7.987   2  2  Tue @ASU 71-76
# 60  Arizona State   8.559  7.734  8.538  8.310  7.904  7.960   1  3  Tue  UCF 76-71
# 74  TCU             7.192  7.110  7.448  7.335  7.858  7.939   2  2  Wed  UU  73-69
# 76  Utah            7.832  7.142  5.920  5.941  6.239  6.928   1  3  Wed @TCU 69-73
# 86  Colorado        6.716  6.530  5.796  5.654  5.188  5.064   0  4  Wed  UC  64-66 home loss
# 96  Kansas State    5.716  6.783  6.354  5.479  5.357  4.914   1  3  Tue  TTU 69-78 home loss
#108  Oklahoma State  5.058  4.818  4.500  5.277  4.979  4.673   1  3  Tue @BYU 70-81

Down to just two teams in negative territory in Pomeroy's Strength of Schedule ratings.
Kansas plays at Iowa State, so its strength of schedule should get a significant bump,
but will it be enough to overcome Baylor, who is playing at Arizona?

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
# 10  Baylor         +11.02
# 13  Kansas         +10.01
# 14  Arizona State   +9.99
# 25  Arizona         +8.08
# 34  TCU             +6.06
# 39  West Virginia   +5.68
# 46  UCF             +5.13
# 47  Iowa State      +5.12
# 52  Colorado        +4.76
# 53  Houston         +4.73
# 66  Kansas State    +4.06
# 85  Cincinnati      +2.91
# 89  Oklahoma State  +2.71
#130  Texas Tech      +1.00
#171  BYU             -0.28
#216  Utah            -1.34

Only two road wins projected for Round 5.  If those transpire, that would get
us to 16 out of 40, about 3 road wins ahead of the long-term one-in-three
average.

Road wins (14 out of  32)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
2 Arizona        UC  WVU                     0 Arizona                                    +2 UA 
2 Houston        OSU KSU                     0 Baylor                                     +2 UH
2 Iowa State     CU  TTU                     0 Houston                                    +2 ISU
2 Kansas         UCF UC                      0 Iowa State                                 +1 BU
2 Texas Tech     UU  BYU                     0 TCU                                        +1 KU
2 West Virginia  KU  CU                      1 Arizona State  BU                          +1 WVU
1 Baylor         ASU                         1 BYU            TTU                          0 TCU
1 UCF            TTU                         1 Kansas         WVU                          0 TTU
0 Arizona State                              1 Kansas State   UH                           0 UCF
0 BYU                                        1 Oklahoma State UH                          -1 ASU
0 Cincinnati                                 1 UCF            KU                          -1 BYU
0 Colorado                                   1 Utah           TTU                         -1 KSU
0 Kansas State                               1 West Virginia  UA                          -1 OSU
0 Oklahoma State                             2 Cincinnati     UA  KU                      -1 UU
0 TCU                                        2 Colorado       ISU WVU                     -2 UC 
0 Utah                                       2 Texas Tech     UCF ISU                     -2 CU