predictions for Cincinnati game

Kansas has played above expectation in three of its last four games,
including a massive 42 points above expectation two games ago, and a
dominant second half in the last game, during which the Jayhawks
allowed only 13 points (really just 11 points if you discount that
late uncontested layup when the game was out of reach for the Sun
Devils).  Meanwhile, Cincinnati has played below expectation in their
last three games, including their worst performance of the season in
the most recent game.  Snakebit, or negative trend?  Losing to lowly
Kansas State in their conference opener was bad, but some might argue
that winning on the road is tough in the Big 12.  Not so tough for
Arizona, who did just that in the Bearcats' conference home opener
in what was supposed to be a toss-up game.  Yes, Cincinnati's overall
record is a glossy 10-4, and 10-1 in non-conference action, but eight
of those games were against teams ranked in triple digits.  They've
played the fourth weakest schedule among Big 12 schools and only
recently broke into positive territory in Pomeroy's strength of schedule
ratings.  Perhaps their non-conference play just wasn't sufficiently
rigorous to prepare them for conference action.

What is noteworthy is that Pomeroy has Cincinnati with the #11 defense,
not that far behind Kansas, with the #4 defense.  Expect a low-scoring
game.  Kansas does have a significantly better offense, ranked #25,
compared to #80 for Cincinnati.

Most of the usual prognosticators are picking Kansas to win the game,
but by a small margin.  The most optimistic prediction is based on a
single common opponent, namely Howard.  Cincinnati played them early
in the season when the Bearcats were flying high, and Cincinnati won
by 17 points at home.  Meanwhile, Kansas had Howard in its season
opener, and the margin was 30 points.  Take that 13-point difference
and decrement it by a 4-point home court advantage, and you might
expect Kansas to come out on top by 9 points.  But that could just be
the statistics of small numbers.  Cincinnati did play over 5 points
below expectation against Howard, while Kansas was not quite a point
above expectation, so take those 6 points away and you're down to
just a 3-point margin for Kansas.  Dunkel is the pessimist, expecting
Kansas to lose by 3 points.  Only one other prognisticator is picking
Kansas to lose, and that is the DPPI, where the margin in favor of
Cincinnati is 0.6 points.  The average of 15 predictions is 2.93
points in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 2.92 points.  Basically
a one-possession game.

But Kansas has seen the emergence of Moore, and Griffen may finally
be showing signs of having figured out how to fit in Self's system.
Bidunga seems to be showing signs of Embiid-like improvement.  That
outburst against UCF has given the Jayhawks a strongly positive
trend, though not all that statistically significant, considering
that he UCF game is a single outlier.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati has a
strongly negative trend of strong statistical significance.  Taking
those trends into account, Kansas would become a 12-point favorite.

To start 0-4 in the Big 12 would be crushing for the Bearcats,
however, as would a second consecutive home loss, so we can expect
a Bearcat team on a mission.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UC      KU      Defensive Stats      UC      KU
Points/Game         75.4    78.9     Opp Points/Game     61.0    63.6
Avg Score Margin   +14.4   +15.3     Opp Effective FG %  43.7    43.3
Assists/Game        15.5    18.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.5     8.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.6    39.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.7    26.8
Effective FG %      53.9    54.6     Blocks/Game          5.1     5.1
Off Rebound %       37.0    28.3     Steals/Game          7.0     7.2
FTA/FGA            0.251   0.209     Personal Fouls/Gm   13.7    14.2
Turnover %          12.9    12.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU              UC  
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.62           +2.79    
inconsistency         14.86           10.89    
trend                 +0.96 ± 0.99    -1.79 ± 0.55
mental toughness      -0.06 ± 0.43    -0.50 ± 0.21         
average total pts     142.57          136.43 

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Howard:

KU  +30 How at home (+26 neutral court)
UC  +17 How at home (+13 neutral court)
KU   +9 UC  on road (+13 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Simas Lukosius (guard)
most points        Daniel Skillings (guard)
most rebounds      Dillon Mitchell (forward)
most assists       Jizzle James (guard)
most steals        Dillon Mitchell (forward)
most blocks        Aziz Bandaogo (forward)
most turnovers     Jizzle James (guard)
most fouls         Arrinten Page (forward)

Reserve forward Tyler McKinley is out for the season with lower leg injury.

                                                          11-3           10-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Cincinnati
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +3.00   70   67       58       # 16   # 17    # 47   # 53
Pomeroy                 +2.15   69   67       58.1     #  9   # 20    # 33   #116
Greenfield              +1.00   68   68                # 11   # 10    # 30   # 35
Dunkel                  -3.00   64   67                # 24           # 34
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +1.50   69   67                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +1.99   67   65       57.1     #  7   #  9    # 43   # 44
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   72   68       70       # 15   # 13    # 86   # 88
DPPI                    -0.60   69   70       48.3     #  8   #  9    # 44   #151 
ESPN BPI                +1.70                 56.9     #  6   #  8    # 26   # 73
Whitlock                +3.53                          # 10   #  8    # 48   # 92
Colley Matrix           +6.89                          # 12   #  2    # 82   #221
Donchess                +5.00   76   71       66.1     # 10   #  6    # 53   #165
Haslametrics            +2.83   67   65                #  8           # 29
INCCStats               +5.00   71   66       67       #  6           # 33
common opponents        +9.00    
NCAA NET                                               #  9           # 36
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 12           # 42
Pomeroy offense                                        # 25           # 80
Pomeroy defense                                        #  4           # 11
Pomeroy tempo                                          #119           #273
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2.93   69.3 67.4     60.2
scatter                  2.92    3.1  1.9      7.1

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #284 Howard                      87  57   +29.26    +0.74
HOME   # 29 North Carolina              92  89    +9.52    -6.52
NEUT   # 14 Michigan St.                77  69    +1.97    +6.03
HOME   #205 Oakland                     78  57   +22.76    -1.76
HOME   #139 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +21.05    -3.05
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        75  72    -6.45    +9.45
HOME   #112 Furman                      86  51   +18.73   +16.27
AWAY   # 46 Creighton                   63  76    +4.27   -17.27
AWAY   # 41 Missouri                    67  76    +3.66   -12.66
HOME   # 91 N.C. State                  75  60   +16.54    -1.54
HOME   #202 Brown                       87  53   +23.44   +10.56
HOME   # 47 West Virginia               61  62   +10.83   -11.83
AWAY   # 76 UCF                         99  48    +8.92   +42.08
HOME   # 58 Arizona St.                 74  55   +12.85    +6.15
AWAY   # 33 Cincinnati                  69  67    +2.15             0.581
AWAY   #  4 Iowa St.                    73  79    -6.19             0.279
HOME   # 90 Kansas St.                  81  64   +16.91             0.945
AWAY   # 72 TCU                         73  65    +7.96             0.774
HOME   #  3 Houston                     65  65    -0.37             0.486
HOME   # 76 UCF                         84  68   +15.92             0.934
AWAY   # 19 Baylor                      73  73    -0.60             0.477
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    76  75    +0.81             0.530
AWAY   # 90 Kansas St.                  78  68    +9.91             0.826
HOME   # 78 Colorado                    80  64   +15.73             0.931
AWAY   # 85 Utah                        81  72    +9.71             0.821
AWAY   # 44 BYU                         77  73    +3.86             0.642
HOME   #104 Oklahoma St.                84  65   +18.98             0.964
AWAY   # 78 Colorado                    76  68    +8.73             0.795
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                  77  71    +5.86             0.710
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     61  69    -7.37             0.243
HOME   # 13 Arizona                     80  75    +5.31             0.692

Here is Cincinnati's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #363 Arkansas Pine Bluff        109  54   +33.73   +21.27
HOME   #297 Morehead St.                83  56   +22.72    +4.28
HOME   #207 Nicholls                    86  49   +18.42   +18.58
AWAY   #204 Northern Kentucky           76  60   +10.11    +5.89
AWAY   #103 Georgia Tech                81  58    +5.13   +17.87
HOME   #273 Alabama St.                 77  59   +22.17    -4.17
AWAY   # 42 Villanova                   60  68    -2.33    -5.67
HOME   #284 Howard                      84  67   +22.39    -5.39
HOME   # 56 Xavier                      68  65    +6.61    -3.61
NEUT   # 55 Dayton                      66  59    +2.63    +4.37
HOME   #322 Grambling St.               84  49   +24.33   +10.67
AWAY   # 90 Kansas St.                  67  70    +3.69    -6.69
HOME   # 13 Arizona                     67  72    -0.56    -4.44
AWAY   # 19 Baylor                      48  68    -6.12   -13.88
HOME   #  9 Kansas                      67  69    -2.15             0.419
AWAY   # 78 Colorado                    68  65    +2.54             0.595
HOME   # 58 Arizona St.                 70  63    +6.82             0.740
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                  69  69    +0.37             0.514
AWAY   # 44 BYU                         68  70    -2.05             0.423
AWAY   # 85 Utah                        73  69    +3.27             0.621
HOME   # 47 West Virginia               65  60    +5.14             0.686
AWAY   # 76 UCF                         72  69    +2.55             0.595
HOME   # 44 BYU                         72  67    +4.95             0.680
HOME   # 85 Utah                        76  66   +10.27             0.834
AWAY   #  4 Iowa St.                    65  76   -11.72             0.134
AWAY   # 47 West Virginia               62  64    -1.86             0.430
HOME   # 72 TCU                         68  59    +8.90             0.800
HOME   # 19 Baylor                      68  67    +0.88             0.533
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     54  66   -12.19             0.125
HOME   # 90 Kansas St.                  73  62   +10.69             0.844
AWAY   #104 Oklahoma St.                72  67    +5.40             0.695