predictions for Arizona State game

The last time Arizona State came to Lawrence was 2017, and the Sun Devils
returned to Tempe with a 95 to 85 victory.  A player known as Remy Martin
came off the bench and scored 21 points in that game.  Kansas squandered
a 3 point halftime lead after leading the entire first half.  Of course,
a few years later, that same Remy Martin was a Jayhawk and helped the
team win its most recent national championship with 14 points off the
bench.  Would you trade a loss in today's game for a national championship
four seasons from now?  Heck, I'll admit to being selfish, wanting both a
victory today AND a national championship, without having to wait four
seasons to get it.

Over the first six games, Kansas was an amazingly consistent team.  Over
the most recent seven games, Kansas has been amazingly inconsistent,
except for the North Carolina State game, which was abpout as spot-on as
you can get.  I would like to see a return to consistency, though at a
higher level of performance, the kind of level you'd expect from a
contender for the national championship.  It would be crazy to expect a
repeat of the UCF result, but a string of above-expectation performances
might signal that the Jayhawks have finally figured out how the various
individually talented parts can gel into a single well-oiled machine.

Everyone is calling for the Jayhawks to win.  Colley has Arizona State
ranked higher than the others at #31, which translates into the most
pessimistic of the various predictions, at just 6 points.  Meanwhile,
the BPI has Arizona State ranked lower than the others at #60, which
leads to the most optimistic prediction of the lot at 14 points.  The
average is 11.1 points with a scatter of 2.8 points.

The Sun Devils have played above expectation by at least 11.1 points on
just two occasions, including their most recent home game against Colorado.
Kansas has played below expectation by at least 11.1 points on three
occasions, all losses.  But the Jayhawks learned what the recipe for
success looks like in Orlando, so hopefully they can avoid repeating
the kind of performance that led to those three losses.

It has now been two games in a row that the Real Time web site hasn't even
been responding.  Add to that the fact that the web site was still stuck on
last season earlier this season, so it may be that Real Time has decided to
stop doing power rankings.  Perhaps just as well; his predictions were among
the worst that I regularly tracked.  I still don't know how he justified the
enormous home court advantage he used in his predictions.  Anyway, I've
removed Real Time from the table of predictions below.  Eyes are dry here.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      ASU     KU      Defensive Stats      ASU     KU
Points/Game         77.0    79.3     Opp Points/Game     70.9    64.3
Avg Score Margin    +6.1   +15.0     Opp Effective FG %  46.9    43.4
Assists/Game        13.9    19.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.5     8.6
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.0    39.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.8    26.9
Effective FG %      53.8    55.0     Blocks/Game          5.3     5.1
Off Rebound %       24.4    27.7     Steals/Game          6.0     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.379   0.209     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.9    14.2
Turnover %          16.1    12.8   

My Stats Comparison        KU             ASU  
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.62           +0.91    
inconsistency         15.50            9.77    
trend                 +1.10 ± 1.15    +0.20 ± 0.75
mental toughness      -0.05 ± 0.45    -0.05 ± 0.26         
average total pts     143.62          147.92 

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Alston Mason (guard)
most points        Basheer Jihad (forward)
most rebounds      Jayden Quaintance (forward)
most assists       Alston Mason (guard)
most steals        Jayden Quaintance (forward)
most blocks        Jayden Quaintance (forward)
most turnovers     Basheer Jihad (forward)
most fouls         Shawn Phillips Jr. (center)

Rserve guard Austin Nunez is out for the season with a foot injury.  Guard Joson Samon
is questionable for the game; he is their second-leading scorer.

                                                          10-3           10-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Arizons St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +10.00   76   66       83       # 18   # 12    # 50   # 25
Pomeroy                +12.05   79   67       87.3     #  8   # 19    # 56   # 28
Greenfield             +13.50   78.5 65                # 10   #  9    # 59   # 37
Dunkel                  +6.50   73   67                # 36           # 56
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +13.50   79   65                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +12.63   78   65       86.3     #  8   # 10    # 53   # 34
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   76   69       66       # 16   # 10    # 46   # 17
DPPI                   +11.50   78   67       81.3     # 11   # 10    # 48   # 21 
ESPN BPI               +13.90                 90.3     #  5   #  9    # 60   # 25
Whitlock                +9.78                          # 10   #  8    # 48   # 20
Colley Matrix           +5.93                          # 15   #  8    # 31   # 30
Donchess               +13.00   83   70       90.1     # 12   #  9    # 57   # 22
Haslametrics           +13.03   79   66                # 10           # 59
INCCStats              +13.00   79   66       89       #  6           # 56
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               # 10           # 52
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 12           # 47
Pomeroy offense                                        # 23           # 87
Pomeroy defense                                        #  5           # 34
Pomeroy tempo                                          #104           #161
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +11.09   78.1 66.6     84.2
scatter                  2.79    2.5  1.6      8.0

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #283 Howard                      87  57   +28.99    +1.01
HOME   # 30 North Carolina              92  89    +9.05    -6.05
NEUT   # 18 Michigan St.                77  69    +2.48    +5.52
HOME   #205 Oakland                     78  57   +22.68    -1.68
HOME   #153 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +21.26    -3.26
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        75  72    -6.99    +9.99
HOME   #107 Furman                      86  51   +17.90   +17.10
AWAY   # 49 Creighton                   63  76    +3.92   -16.92
AWAY   # 46 Missouri                    67  76    +3.59   -12.59
HOME   # 92 N.C. State                  75  60   +15.96    -0.96
HOME   #202 Brown                       87  53   +23.18   +10.82
HOME   # 48 West Virginia               61  62   +10.43   -11.43
AWAY   # 78 UCF                         99  48    +8.50   +42.50
HOME   # 56 Arizona St.                 79  67   +12.05             0.873
AWAY   # 32 Cincinnati                  70  68    +1.74             0.565
AWAY   #  4 Iowa St.                    74  80    -6.80             0.260
HOME   # 94 Kansas St.                  82  66   +16.72             0.943
AWAY   # 74 TCU                         74  66    +7.66             0.765
HOME   #  3 Houston                     65  66    -0.86             0.468
HOME   # 78 UCF                         84  69   +15.50             0.928
AWAY   # 17 Baylor                      74  75    -1.18             0.455
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    77  77    +0.20             0.508
AWAY   # 94 Kansas St.                  79  69    +9.72             0.821
HOME   # 84 Colorado                    80  65   +15.59             0.930
AWAY   # 88 Utah                        82  73    +9.38             0.812
AWAY   # 47 BYU                         78  74    +3.57             0.632
HOME   #103 Oklahoma St.                85  67   +18.59             0.961
AWAY   # 84 Colorado                    77  68    +8.59             0.792
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  78  73    +5.41             0.695
AWAY   #  3 Houston                     62  70    -7.86             0.229
HOME   # 13 Arizona                     81  76    +4.74             0.673

Here is Arizona State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #228 Idaho St.                   55  48   +16.64    -9.64
NEUT   # 76 Santa Clara                 81  74    +2.87    +4.13
AWAY   #  7 Gonzaga                     80  88   -13.36    +5.36
NEUT   # 97 Grand Canyon                87  76    +5.34    +5.66
HOME   #115 St. Thomas                  81  66   +10.69    +4.31
HOME   #242 Cal Poly                    93  89   +19.50   -15.50
NEUT   # 61 New Mexico                  85  82    +1.35    +1.65
NEUT   # 36 Saint Mary's                68  64    -2.06    +6.06
HOME   #285 San Diego                   90  53   +21.09   +15.91
NEUT   #  5 Florida                     66  83   -11.11    -5.89
NEUT   #223 Massachusetts               78  62   +14.08    +1.92
AWAY   # 47 BYU                         56  76    -4.88   -15.12
HOME   # 84 Colorado                    81  61    +7.03   +12.97
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                      67  79   -12.05             0.127
HOME   # 17 Baylor                      71  74    -2.33             0.413
HOME   # 78 UCF                         78  72    +6.65             0.735
AWAY   # 32 Cincinnati                  64  71    -6.44             0.271
AWAY   # 48 West Virginia               65  70    -4.69             0.329
HOME   #  4 Iowa St.                    71  80    -8.29             0.217
AWAY   # 84 Colorado                    71  71    +0.03             0.501
HOME   # 13 Arizona                     75  79    -3.97             0.354
HOME   # 94 Kansas St.                  76  68    +8.14             0.779
AWAY   #103 Oklahoma St.                76  73    +2.59             0.597
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                  69  79    -9.74             0.179
HOME   # 74 TCU                         71  65    +6.23             0.722
HOME   #  3 Houston                     60  69    -8.41             0.213
AWAY   # 94 Kansas St.                  73  72    +1.14             0.543
HOME   # 47 BYU                         75  73    +2.12             0.579
AWAY   # 88 Utah                        76  76    +0.47             0.518
AWAY   # 13 Arizona                     71  82   -10.97             0.150
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                  73  75    -2.74             0.398