Big 12 projection, Round 2

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 2   
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game and Prediction
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ------------------------
#  3  Houston        15.529 15.675 15.812 16.158   2  0  Mon  TCU 71-54
#  5  Iowa State     15.527 15.922 16.138 16.101   2  0  Tue  UU  90-71
#  8  Kansas         13.280 11.900 12.241 13.337   1  1  Wed  ASU 79-67
# 17  Arizona        11.682 11.856 12.473 12.809   2  0  Tue @WVU 73-73 toss up
# 14  Texas Tech     12.489 10.936 11.314 11.993   1  1  Tue @BYU 77-77 toss up
# 22  Baylor         11.852 12.436 12.220 11.677   1  1  Tue  UC  72-67
# 36  West Virginia   9.149 10.353 10.506 11.156   2  0  Tue  UA  73-73 toss up
# 28  Cincinnati     12.499 11.444 10.827 10.583   0  2  Tue @BU  67-72
# 41  BYU             9.908 10.807 10.670 10.166   1  1  Tue  TTU 77-77 toss up
# 57  Arizona State   8.559  7.734  8.045  8.538   1  1  Wed @KU  67-79
# 81  UCF             7.011  8.555  8.214  7.465   1  1  Wed  CU  76-72
# 73  TCU             7.192  7.110  7.442  7.448   1  1  Mon @UH  54-71
# 86  Kansas State    5.716  6.783  6.451  6.354   1  1  Tue @OSU 75-76
# 71  Utah            7.832  7.142  6.764  5.920   0  2  Tue @ISU 71-90
# 87  Colorado        6.716  6.530  6.219  5.796   0  2  Wed @UCF 72-76
#109  Oklahoma State  5.058  4.818  4.665  4.500   0  2  Tue  KSU 76-75

You should notice that there are two "Round 2" columns.  That was deliberate.  It splits
the latest update into its component parts.  The first part comes from the fractional win
probability before the game to the actual win (or loss) after the game.  That is, if you
have a 60 percent chance of winning a game (0.60) and actually win, then you gain
0.40 of a win, but if you lose, you drop 0.60 of a win.  The second part comes from the
computer ratings adjustment after the results of all the games have been taken into
account.  As you can see, Kansas had a 65.9 percent probability of beating UCF prior
to the game (0.659 projected win) and actually won, so Kansas picked up 0.341 of a
win.  Then Pomeroy's ratings were updated, and Kansas picked up an additional 1.096
projected wins.  That's a massive adjustment considering where we are in the season.
Then again, it was a massive win.  Even after the ratings adjustment, Kansas played
42 points above expectation, a more than four standard deivation event, which is rare.
How rare is it?  How about 3 times in 100,000 games?  (There have been 2944 games
between Division I teams this season, and we're not quite halfway through the season,
so we'll eventually have over 7000 games, meaning it takes about four years to have a
four standard deviation event occur.)  I'll expect UCF to drop even more going forward,
and Kansas can still move up, so the departure from expectation may eventually decline
to something less than four standard deviations, but it'll still be rare.

We're down to just four teams in negative territory for strength of schedule,
according to Pomeroy.  How many games will it take for Utah to break into
positive territory?

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
# 14  Baylor          +9.86
# 21  Kansas          +8.60
# 25  Arizona         +7.52
# 30  Arizona State   +6.78
# 58  Houston         +4.24
# 66  TCU             +3.54
# 76  UCF             +2.96
# 77  West Virginia   +2.95
# 99  Iowa State      +2.23
#104  Kansas State    +2.07
#110  Colorado        +1.98
#121  Oklahoma State  +1.67
#181  Cincinnati      -0.44
#260  Texas Tech      -2.76
#292  BYU             -3.81
#335  Utah            -5.45

No road wins are projected for Round 3, though there are a couple of toss-up
games that could become road wins.  We're currently a bit ahead of the long-term
one-in-three average.

Road wins ( 7 out of  16)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
1 Arizona        UC                          0 Arizona                                    +1 UA
1 Houston        OSU                         0 Arizona State                              +1 UH
1 Iowa State     CU                          0 Baylor                                     +1 ISU
1 Kansas         UCF                         0 BYU                                        +1 WVU
1 Texas Tech     UU                          0 Houston                                     0 ASU
1 UCF            TTU                         0 Iowa State                                  0 BU
1 West Virginia  KU                          0 Kansas State                                0 BYU
0 Arizona State                              0 TCU                                         0 KU
0 Baylor                                     0 West Virginia                               0 KSU
0 BYU                                        1 Cincinnati     UA                           0 TCU
0 Cincinnati                                 1 Colorado       ISU                          0 TTU
0 Colorado                                   1 Kansas         WVU                          0 UCF
0 Kansas State                               1 Oklahoma State UH                          -1 UC 
0 Oklahoma State                             1 Texas Tech     UCF                         -1 CU
0 TCU                                        1 UCF            KU                          -1 OSU
0 Utah                                       1 Utah           TTU                         -1 UU