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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for UCF game
- asteroid
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3 weeks 1 day ago #33316
by asteroid
Back to the scene of the crime.
Kansas traveled to Orlando for the second game of the conference slate
last season, and limped home with a 60 to 65 loss. Why the Big 12 did
not schedule a return game in Lawrence this season is curious, but I
suspect it has something to do with the expansion to 16 teams. Besides,
considering the weather forecast for Lawrence, the Jayhawks probably
prefer to be in Orlando for the moment.
There is considerably more scatter in the predictions for this game
than usual. Dunkel is the optimist, picking Kansas to win by 15 points
in a high-scoring game. Seven Overtimes is the pessimist, expecting the
Jayhawks to lose by 5 points. Seven Overtimes even has UCF ranked five
spots higher than Kansas. Colley has UCF ranked immediately behind
Kansas, but the home court advantage means that Colley is also calling
for Kansas to lose, but by 3 points. The rest of the usual prognosticators
generally favor Kansas by 4 to 7 points, with the grand average being 4.8
points, but with a scatter of 4.7 points.
UCF has reached the century mark in scoring twice this season, and they
average 156 point games, so the Knights apparently like to play a fast-paced
game.
It may be that the Jayhawks simply diddn't take the Knights seriously last
season, so I don't expect a repeat of that mistake this time around. Kansas
has better talent, and could be a contender if all those pieces ever fall
into place, but the chemistry feels a bit like square pegs in round holes
at the moment. KJ's inability to rebound remains a mystery, and it will
be interesting to see if Self plays Bidunga and Dickinson together more
moving forward. Bidunga, unfortunately, still remains a foul machine; once
he learns to play without fouling, we should see his minutes go up considerably.
Note that Flory had 9 more rebounds and 6 more points than KJ in 11 fewer minutes
of playing time.
I'm also bothered by the fact that this team was constructed to give the starters
more rest than last season, hopefully around 30 minutes per game, but Dajuan
played 38 minutes against West Virginia. Can't blame Self for playing Storr for
only 15 minutes against the Mountaineers; he managed 0 points, 0 rebounds,
0 steals, 0 blocks, 0 free throw attempts, and only 2 field goal attempts.
But Mayo apparently loves to be back home playing for the local team; he seems
to be getting very comfprtable with his role. Now if only the other transfers
can do the same.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UCF KU Defensive Stats UCF KU
Points/Game 81.3 77.7 Opp Points/Game 74.8 65.7
Avg Score Margin +6.6 +12.0 Opp Effective FG % 48.8 45.1
Assists/Game 14.8 18.1 Off Rebounds/Gm 9.8 7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 38.3 37.8 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.8 26.2
Effective FG % 51.0 54.9 Blocks/Game 4.4 4.5
Off Rebound % 31.1 25.8 Steals/Game 8.3 6.8
FTA/FGA 0.409 0.219 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.8 14.3
Turnover % 14.7 13.1
My Stats Comparison KU UCF
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.21 -0.87
inconsistency 10.16 7.60
trend -0.38 ± 0.88 +0.85 ± 0.61
mental toughness -0.22 ± 0.30 +0.31 ± 0.21
average total pts 143.33 156.08
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Darius Johnson (guard)
most points Keyshawn Hall (guard)
most rebounds Keyshawn Hall (guard)
most assists Darius Johnson (guard)
most steals Darius Johnson (guard)
most blocks Moustapha Thiam (center)
most turnovers Darius Johnson (guard)
most fouls Moustapha Thiam (center)
Reserve guard Cameron Simpson is questionable for the game.
9-3 10-2
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas UCF
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +5.00 74 69 65 # 24 # 12 # 55 # 66
Pomeroy +4.33 79 74 65.9 # 13 # 22 # 62 #121
Greenfield +5.50 77 71.5 # 14 # 15 # 63 # 66
Dunkel +15.00 86 71 # 36 # 56
Vegas (via Dunkel) +5.50 77 71
Dolphin Predictive +5.79 77 71 68.8 # 19 # 15 # 79 # 67
Real Time # # # #
Seven Overtimes -5.00 72 77 42 # 20 # 11 # 15 # 80
DPPI +4.00 77 73 63 # 13 # # 58 #
ESPN BPI +6.80 74.7 # 10 # 14 # 68 # 74
Whitlock +3.31 # 15 # 7 # 70 # 52
Colley Matrix -3.16 # 18 # 9 # 19 # 61
Donchess +7.70 79 71 74.8 # 15 # 8 # 49 # 60
Haslametrics +6.97 79 72 # 15 # 77
INCCStats +6.00 77 71 72 # 10 # 68
common opponents
NCAA NET # 19 # 65
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 9 # 63
Pomeroy offense # 30 # 67
Pomeroy defense # 12 # 73
Pomeroy tempo #133 # 89
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +4.84 77.6 72.0 65.8
scatter 4.70 3.5 2.1 10.6
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 21-10:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #282 Howard 87 57 +26.91 +3.09
HOME # 35 North Carolina 92 89 +7.44 -4.44
NEUT # 17 Michigan St. 77 69 +0.42 +7.58
HOME #206 Oakland 78 57 +20.72 +0.28
HOME #153 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +19.26 -1.26
NEUT # 2 Duke 75 72 -7.92 +10.92
HOME #109 Furman 86 51 +15.96 +19.04
AWAY # 51 Creighton 63 76 +1.90 -14.90
AWAY # 53 Missouri 67 76 +2.30 -11.30
HOME # 93 N.C. State 75 60 +13.99 +1.01
HOME #203 Brown 87 53 +21.21 +12.79
HOME # 37 West Virginia 61 62 +7.34 -8.34
AWAY # 62 UCF 79 74 +4.33 0.659
HOME # 57 Arizona St. 78 68 +10.11 0.830
AWAY # 28 Cincinnati 69 70 -1.40 0.448
AWAY # 5 Iowa St. 73 82 -8.51 0.211
HOME # 84 Kansas St. 81 67 +13.45 0.898
AWAY # 74 TCU 73 68 +5.34 0.693
HOME # 3 Houston 65 68 -2.58 0.404
HOME # 62 UCF 82 71 +11.33 0.858
AWAY # 22 Baylor 74 76 -2.34 0.412
HOME # 5 Iowa St. 77 78 -1.51 0.443
AWAY # 84 Kansas St. 77 71 +6.45 0.729
HOME # 86 Colorado 79 66 +13.43 0.898
AWAY # 88 Utah 81 74 +7.14 0.750
AWAY # 43 BYU 77 76 +1.12 0.542
HOME #105 Oklahoma St. 85 68 +16.93 0.945
AWAY # 86 Colorado 76 69 +6.43 0.728
HOME # 14 Texas Tech 77 74 +3.57 0.632
AWAY # 3 Houston 62 71 -9.58 0.183
HOME # 16 Arizona 81 77 +3.86 0.643
Here is UCF's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME # 11 Texas A&M 64 61 -4.61 +7.61
HOME #136 Purdue Fort Wayne 75 68 +10.87 -3.87
HOME #102 Florida Atlantic 100 94 +7.90 -1.90
HOME #300 Tennessee Tech 80 69 +20.83 -9.83
NEUT # 25 Wisconsin 70 86 -6.19 -9.81
NEUT # 59 LSU 102 109 -0.36 -6.64
HOME #154 Milwaukee 84 76 +12.26 -4.26
HOME #155 Cal Baptist 74 59 +11.91 +3.09
HOME #292 Tarleton St. 66 51 +19.19 -4.19
NEUT #284 Tulsa 88 75 +15.93 -2.93
HOME #168 Jacksonville 86 66 +12.69 +7.31
AWAY # 14 Texas Tech 87 83 -10.97 +14.97
HOME # 13 Kansas 74 79 -4.33 0.341
HOME # 86 Colorado 77 72 +5.84 0.710
AWAY # 16 Arizona 75 86 -11.18 0.145
AWAY # 57 Arizona St. 73 77 -4.57 0.333
HOME # 3 Houston 63 73 -9.76 0.178
AWAY # 5 Iowa St. 71 88 -16.48 0.060
HOME # 74 TCU 74 70 +4.83 0.676
AWAY # 13 Kansas 71 82 -11.33 0.142
HOME # 43 BYU 78 78 +0.45 0.517
HOME # 28 Cincinnati 71 72 -1.87 0.430
AWAY # 22 Baylor 72 82 -9.86 0.176
HOME # 5 Iowa St. 75 84 -9.48 0.185
AWAY # 86 Colorado 74 75 -1.16 0.456
AWAY #105 Oklahoma St. 79 77 +2.01 0.575
HOME # 88 Utah 83 76 +6.23 0.722
HOME # 84 Kansas St. 79 73 +5.85 0.710
AWAY # 74 TCU 71 73 -2.17 0.419
HOME #105 Oklahoma St. 82 73 +9.01 0.803
AWAY # 37 West Virginia 67 74 -7.05 0.253
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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