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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for West Virginia game
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3 months 2 weeks ago #33296
by asteroid
Happy New Year!
Jekyll and Hyde? West Virginia lost rather badly on the road to Pittsburgh,
but defeated higher ranked teams Gonzaga and Arizona on neutral courts. It
seems the Mountaineers have a capable squad, but they are dealing with some
injury issues at the moment. The Pittsburgh game has been their only true
road game thus far this season, and if their road performance continues,
they'll have little chance of getting their first ever win in Allen Field
House.
All the usual prognosticators are picking Kansas to win the game. Dunkel is
the most optimistic, picking the Jayhawks to win by 16 points. Seven Overtimes
is the most pessimistic with just a 7 point margin of victory. The average of
14 predictions is 10 points with a scatter of 2.5 points.
West Virginia has played above expectation by enough to overcome the predicted
margin in four of the eleven games played, corresponding to about a 36 percent
chance of winning the game. (I'll note in passing that Kansas State had only
a 30 percent chance of beating Cincinnati yesterday, but it happened.) Meanwhile,
Kansas has played below expectation by enough to squander the predicted margin in
just two of the eleven games played, and those were both road games and losses.
That's just an 18 percent chance of losing. That's also remarkably close to the
probability implied by the Pomeroy ratings, which ought to be pretty reliable by
now, with all teams multiply connected. That West Virginia's probability of
victory based on the computer ratings is so much lower than implied by actual
performance may be an artifact of the statistics of small numbers (a one-game
delta amounts to 9 percent at this stage of the season).
Allen Field House is probably worth more than the national average for home
court advantage, and in the injury department, working Moore into the lineup
may well be more of a plus for Kansas than the loss of Clemence to a groin
injury, whereas West Virginia may be down at least one and maybe two major
contributors, so I'd take the over on the 10 point margin.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats WV KU Defensive Stats WV KU
Points/Game 77.5 79.2 Opp Points/Game 63.8 66.0
Avg Score Margin +13.6 +13.2 Opp Effective FG % 42.5 44.8
Assists/Game 14.5 18.8 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.4 8.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 37.2 38.2 Def Rebounds/Gm 24.8 26.4
Effective FG % 52.9 55.7 Blocks/Game 6.0 4.9
Off Rebound % 26.4 26.1 Steals/Game 8.2 7.2
FTA/FGA 0.300 0.204 Personal Fouls/Gm 16.8 14.7
Turnover % 14.6 13.2
My Stats Comparison KU W. Virginia
=================== ============= ============
performance +1.35 +3.83
inconsistency 10.16 12.63
trend +0.01 ± 1.02 +0.40 ± 1.26
mental toughness -0.28 ± 0.32 -0.16 ± 0.33
average total pts 145.18 141.27
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Javon Small (guard)
most points Javon Small (guard)
most rebounds Amani Hansberry (forward)
most assists Javon Small (guard)
most steals Javon Small (guard)
most blocks Eduardo Andre (center)
most turnovers Javon Small (guard)
most fouls Tucker DeVries (guard)
Second-leading scorer Tucker DeVries is likely out with an upper body injury.
Leading rebounder and third-leading scorer Amani Hansberry is questionable for
the game. Reserve guard Jayden Stone is likely out with an upper body injury.
On the Kansas side, Clemence has been sidelined with a groin injury.
9-2 9-2
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas West Virginia
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +9.00 76 67 79 # 12 # 11 # 53 # 65
Pomeroy +9.60 77 67 81.8 # 9 # 28 # 50 #165
Greenfield +12.50 78 65 # 10 # 11 # 46 # 35
Dunkel +16.00 77 61 # 28 # 56
Vegas (via Dunkel) +12.50 77 65
Dolphin Predictive +7.93 72 65 75.7 # 15 # 15 # 30 # 27
Real Time # # # #
Seven Overtimes +7.00 75 68 59 # 10 # 13 # 41 # 23
DPPI +7.80 76 68 71.2 # 8 # 12 # 37 #101
ESPN BPI +11.30 85.9 # 5 # 13 # 50 # 84
Whitlock +7.45 # 12 # 8 # 38 # 42
Colley Matrix +7.88 # 9 # 8 # 38 #109
Donchess +11.10 81 70 86.0 # 18 # 13 # 51 # 79
Haslametrics +10.69 73 62 # 9 # 47
INCCStats +9.00 75 66 81 # 9 # 38
common opponents
NCAA NET # 15 # 34
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 9 # 44
Pomeroy offense # 27 # 83
Pomeroy defense # 7 # 23
Pomeroy tempo #113 #250
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +9.98 76.1 65.8 77.5
scatter 2.53 2.4 2.6 9.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #266 Howard 87 57 +26.76 +3.24
HOME # 29 North Carolina 92 89 +7.24 -4.24
NEUT # 20 Michigan St. 77 69 +1.84 +6.16
HOME #210 Oakland 78 57 +21.88 -0.88
HOME #131 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +19.04 -1.04
NEUT # 2 Duke 75 72 -5.47 +8.47
HOME #113 Furman 86 51 +16.84 +18.16
AWAY # 51 Creighton 63 76 +3.32 -16.32
AWAY # 52 Missouri 67 76 +3.53 -12.53
HOME # 86 N.C. State 75 60 +13.76 +1.24
HOME #190 Brown 87 53 +21.41 +12.59
HOME # 50 West Virginia 76 67 +9.75 0.822
AWAY # 76 UCF 79 73 +6.42 0.728
HOME # 55 Arizona St. 80 69 +10.81 0.847
AWAY # 25 Cincinnati 70 71 -1.17 0.456
AWAY # 5 Iowa St. 76 83 -7.04 0.253
HOME # 88 Kansas St. 82 68 +14.26 0.911
AWAY # 75 TCU 75 69 +6.08 0.717
HOME # 4 Houston 66 67 -0.69 0.474
HOME # 76 UCF 83 69 +13.42 0.898
AWAY # 21 Baylor 76 77 -1.73 0.435
HOME # 5 Iowa St. 79 79 -0.04 0.498
AWAY # 88 Kansas St. 79 71 +7.26 0.754
HOME # 83 Colorado 80 67 +13.45 0.898
AWAY # 64 Utah 81 76 +5.48 0.698
AWAY # 43 BYU 78 76 +1.89 0.571
HOME #105 Oklahoma St. 86 69 +16.91 0.945
AWAY # 83 Colorado 77 70 +6.45 0.729
HOME # 15 Texas Tech 78 73 +4.67 0.671
AWAY # 4 Houston 63 71 -7.69 0.234
HOME # 22 Arizona 82 77 +5.55 0.700
Here is West Virginia's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #242 Robert Morris 87 59 +18.49 +9.51
HOME #211 Massachusetts 75 69 +17.02 -11.02
AWAY # 24 Pittsburgh 62 86 -7.49 -16.51
HOME #272 Iona 86 43 +20.19 +22.81
NEUT # 7 Gonzaga 86 78 -8.11 +16.11
NEUT # 59 Louisville 70 79 +1.22 -10.22
NEUT # 22 Arizona 83 76 -4.41 +11.41
HOME # 65 Georgetown 73 60 +5.75 +7.25
HOME #302 North Carolina Central 79 45 +20.94 +13.06
HOME #254 Bethune Cookman 84 61 +19.03 +3.97
HOME #354 Mercyhurst 67 46 +25.29 -4.29
AWAY # 9 Kansas 67 76 -9.75 0.178
HOME #105 Oklahoma St. 78 68 +9.89 0.825
HOME # 22 Arizona 74 75 -0.91 0.466
AWAY # 83 Colorado 69 69 -0.08 0.497
AWAY # 4 Houston 56 69 -13.08 0.108
HOME # 5 Iowa St. 72 78 -6.19 0.279
HOME # 55 Arizona St. 73 68 +4.31 0.658
AWAY # 88 Kansas St. 71 70 +0.63 0.524
HOME # 4 Houston 59 65 -6.08 0.283
AWAY # 25 Cincinnati 63 70 -7.22 0.247
AWAY # 75 TCU 67 67 -0.43 0.484
HOME # 64 Utah 77 71 +5.69 0.704
HOME # 43 BYU 74 72 +2.48 0.593
AWAY # 21 Baylor 68 76 -7.73 0.232
HOME # 25 Cincinnati 66 67 -0.22 0.492
AWAY # 15 Texas Tech 66 75 -8.38 0.214
HOME # 75 TCU 71 64 +6.57 0.733
AWAY # 43 BYU 71 75 -4.52 0.335
AWAY # 64 Utah 73 75 -1.31 0.451
HOME # 76 UCF 75 68 +6.73 0.738
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, jaythawk1
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3 months 2 weeks ago - 3 months 2 weeks ago #33297
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Thanks, asteroid!
And I agree, KU in my mind definitely wins this edition of injury roulette with WVU.
Having Shakeel Moore back is a definite plus, while I regret that IMO the loss of Zack Clemence is simply not that big of a deal as far as KUMBB court performance is concerned..
WVU, on the other hand, is really hurting.
• Starters Tucker DeVries (coach's son) and Amani Hansberry are injured with no current update as of yesterday and senior guard Jayden Stone (who transferred in from Detroit Mercy where he averaged over 35 minutes and 20+ points a game last AY) has yet to play this season due to an undisclosed "issue" (not clear from the HailWV.com article if it is a health issue or something else; asteroid noting it is an "upper body injury" in his OP).
- DeVries has missed the past three games and has been listed as out "indefinitely". With him (as CorpusJayhawk points out in his WVU @KU newsletter for the Rock Chalk Challenge) and Hansberry playing WVU defeated both Gonzaga and Arizona in the Battle 4 Atlantis. They also lost badly at Pittsburgh and - in between Gonzaga and Arizona - to Louisville (all 3 Battle 4 Atlantis games were decided in OT).
- Hansberry injured his ankle last week against Mercyhurst. WVU HC Darian DeVries was quoted after the game saying that he didn't believe the injury to be "anything serious" and that Hansberry should "be good."
- On Monday, HC DeVries said “Pretty much all of those guys are the same as they were when we left (Morgantown). We’ve got today’s practice and tomorrow’s shoot-around to kind of determine where everybody’s at,"
• The Mountaineers can ill-afford injury issues, as their rotation has only went 11-deep this season,
(sources: Rock Chalk Challenge email newsletter dtd 2024-12-30 and HailWV.com )
====================================
I close this comment with two reminders.
• First, restating from an earlier post,
WVU is 0-16 (0-5 neutral, 0-11 AFH) against KU away from Morgantown Coliseum, and
7-5 in Morgantown.
They are the only Big 12 team, past and present, with a winning home record against Self's Jayhawks.
• Second, and repeating again, KU has won 33 straight conference opening games going back to the pre-1996 Big 8 days (14 in AFH, 19 on the road) and plans to earn #34 this afternoon.
The last time Kansas lost a conference opener was at Oklahoma, 88-82, on 1991-01-08.
The streak began with a 92-80 win on 1992-01-13 at the Hellmouth v mOO.
Let's GO JAYHAWKS!
And I agree, KU in my mind definitely wins this edition of injury roulette with WVU.
Having Shakeel Moore back is a definite plus, while I regret that IMO the loss of Zack Clemence is simply not that big of a deal as far as KUMBB court performance is concerned..
WVU, on the other hand, is really hurting.
• Starters Tucker DeVries (coach's son) and Amani Hansberry are injured with no current update as of yesterday and senior guard Jayden Stone (who transferred in from Detroit Mercy where he averaged over 35 minutes and 20+ points a game last AY) has yet to play this season due to an undisclosed "issue" (not clear from the HailWV.com article if it is a health issue or something else; asteroid noting it is an "upper body injury" in his OP).
- DeVries has missed the past three games and has been listed as out "indefinitely". With him (as CorpusJayhawk points out in his WVU @KU newsletter for the Rock Chalk Challenge) and Hansberry playing WVU defeated both Gonzaga and Arizona in the Battle 4 Atlantis. They also lost badly at Pittsburgh and - in between Gonzaga and Arizona - to Louisville (all 3 Battle 4 Atlantis games were decided in OT).
- Hansberry injured his ankle last week against Mercyhurst. WVU HC Darian DeVries was quoted after the game saying that he didn't believe the injury to be "anything serious" and that Hansberry should "be good."
- On Monday, HC DeVries said “Pretty much all of those guys are the same as they were when we left (Morgantown). We’ve got today’s practice and tomorrow’s shoot-around to kind of determine where everybody’s at,"
• The Mountaineers can ill-afford injury issues, as their rotation has only went 11-deep this season,
(sources: Rock Chalk Challenge email newsletter dtd 2024-12-30 and HailWV.com )
====================================
I close this comment with two reminders.
• First, restating from an earlier post,
WVU is 0-16 (0-5 neutral, 0-11 AFH) against KU away from Morgantown Coliseum, and
7-5 in Morgantown.
They are the only Big 12 team, past and present, with a winning home record against Self's Jayhawks.
• Second, and repeating again, KU has won 33 straight conference opening games going back to the pre-1996 Big 8 days (14 in AFH, 19 on the road) and plans to earn #34 this afternoon.
The last time Kansas lost a conference opener was at Oklahoma, 88-82, on 1991-01-08.
The streak began with a 92-80 win on 1992-01-13 at the Hellmouth v mOO.
Let's GO JAYHAWKS!
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 3 months 2 weeks ago by HawkErrant.
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