Big 12 initial projection

I usually wait until non-conference play has been completed (not including the old SEC
Challenge games that were scheduled in late January) before doing the initial conference
projection, but this season there is only one non-conference game left on the schedule,
with Baylor playing Arlington Baptist on Friday, but because Arlington Baptist is not a
Division I team, that game will not have an effect on the Pomeroy ratings.  Of course,
other games are being played between Division I teams that will jostle the ratings, but
only marginally, so here we go.

As people are discovering with the SEC Invitational, otherwise known as the College
Football Playoff, there are teams complaining about not getting into the playoff because
they played a tough schedule and picked up some losses in the process, while other teams
greased their way into the playoff with a glossy record against a weak schedule.  Not to
name names (Alabama, Indiana, cough, cough), but we're going to see the same issue in
college basketball.  Unbalanced schedules can cause a stronger team to end the season with
a poorer record than a weaker team, and that's a direct consequence of realignment that
created these oversized conferences that are too big for balanced schedules.

Complicating matters for me personally is the fact that some tournament schedules were
set before realignment, so conference foes wound up playing each other, and my software
has no way to distinguish those tournament games from conference games.  As a result,
West Virginia's win over Arizona in the Battle 4 Atlantis will always show up as an extra
conference win for the Mountaineers, as will Iowa State's win over Colorado in the Maui
Invitational.  I will try to remember to decrement those teams' projected conference win
totals, but I may forget if I'm in a rush to post an update.  At least for this initial
projection, I did the grand total and noticed that there were 162 conference wins, and
it took a bit of time to figure out why the 2-win discrepancy was occurring, so I was
able to fix the issue.

Right now, it's a statistical toss-up between Houston and Iowa State for the Big 12
conference championship.  Kansas is a couple of projected wins back, with Cincinnati
and Texas Tech another projected win behind Kansas.  Historically, teams have done as
many as three wins better (or worse) than their initial projection, so the Bearcats
and Red Raiders should be considered contenders, while Baylor and Arizona are extreme
darkhorses and more likely to play the role of spoiler.  It's worth noting that because
of the unbalanced schedules, #21 Cincinnati is projected to do a hair better than #13
Texas Tech.  Unlike football, however, everybody will play everybody else, but only
five of the twenty games feature home and away game pairs between the same two teams.
Kansas does get both frontrunners Houston and Iowa State both home and away.

Since the preseason projection, West Virginia has improved its prospects the most, moving
up from 15th place to 9th place in the projected standings.  Meanwhile, Kansas State dropped
from 9th place to 15th place.  They've got a dumpster fire going over in the Little Apple.

                      Init 
                      Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins 
----  -------------- ------
#  4  Houston        15.529
#  5  Iowa State     15.527
#  8  Kansas         13.280
# 21  Cincinnati     12.499
# 13  Texas Tech     12.489
# 18  Baylor         11.852
# 24  Arizona        11.682
# 40  BYU             9.908
# 48  West Virginia   9.149
# 59  Arizona State   8.559
# 64  Utah            7.832
# 74  TCU             7.192
# 75  UCF             7.011
# 76  Colorado        6.716
# 90  Kansas State    5.716
#104  Oklahoma State  5.058

But do Cincinnati and Texas Tech deserve to be considered contenders?  Neither has really
been tested, having played Charmin soft schedules.  Even Iowa State's schedule doesn't rate
very highly in Pomeroy, with five top-tier opponents being offset by six cupcakes, five of
which rank in the 300s.  The toughest opponent Texas Tech has played is #20 Texas A&M.  The
toughest opponent Cincinnati has played is #32 Dayton.  Although Utah did play #19 Mississippi
State and #44 Saint Mary's, the rest of their non-conference slate is so weak that Pomeroy has
the Utes with the third weakest schedule in all of Division I.

Rank  Big XII Team   Sched.
----  -------------- ------
# 25  Baylor          +7.82
# 26  Kansas          +7.70
# 49  Arizona State   +5.20
# 53  Arizona         +4.94
# 92  Houston         +2.28
#127  TCU             +0.81
#149  West Virginia   +0.30
#182  Oklahoma State  -0.64
#183  UCF             -0.64
#194  Kansas State    -0.96
#254  Colorado        -2.40
#260  Iowa State      -2.55
#299  Cincinnati      -4.17
#320  Texas Tech      -4.79
#354  BYU             -8.27
#362  Utah           -10.50