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predictions for Brown game

  • asteroid
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5 days 3 hours ago #33265 by asteroid
Merry Christmas!

"What can Brown do for you?"  (UPS slogan)

Brown started their season losing three of their first four games.  The Bears
haven't lost since.  Then again, they've only played one top tier team, and
that was in their most recent outing, and they needed double overtime to come
away with a 4 point home victory over Rhode Island.  As a result, Brown has a
positive trend of some statistical significance.

Should be an easy game, but the problem with these games is that there is a
tendency to look forward to the Christmas break, and just show up to get this
one out of the way.  That's not a good recipe.  Yeah, Kansas ought to win the
game, but may very well play below expectation.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats       B      KU      Defensive Stats       B      KU
Points/Game         74.8    78.4     Opp Points/Game     68.0    67.3
Avg Score Margin    +6.8   +11.1     Opp Effective FG %  46.1    46.5
Assists/Game        15.1    19.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.2     7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.8    37.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.7    25.3
Effective FG %      54.2    55.7     Blocks/Game          5.7     4.4
Off Rebound %       30.6    25.8     Steals/Game          6.6     7.2
FTA/FGA            0.307   0.202     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.4    15.7
Turnover %          14.9    13.8   

My Stats Comparison        KU            Brown  
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.82           +1.31    
inconsistency          9.99            9.21    
trend                 -0.81 ± 1.13    +1.73 ± 0.89
mental toughness      -0.21 ± 0.34    +0.28 ± 0.48         
average total pts     145.70          142.80 

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Kino Lilly Jr. (guard)
most points        Kino Lilly Jr. (guard)
most rebounds      Aaron Cooley (guard)
most assists       Kino Lilly Jr. (guard)
most steals        Jeremiah Jenkins (guard)
most blocks        Landon Lewis (forward)
most turnovers     Kino Lilly Jr. (guard)
most fouls         Landon Lewis (forward)

Reserve forward Nana Owusu-Anane is out with a shoulder injury.

                                                           8-2            7-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Brown
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +22.00   82   60       96       # 14   #  9    #183   #335
Pomeroy                +20.22   83   62       97.2     # 10   # 15    #176   #359
Greenfield             +24.50   84   60                # 11   #  7    #178   #309
Dunkel                 +28.00   84   56                # 32           #149
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +24.50   84   60                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +19.06   80   61       95.0     # 18   # 17    # 82   #324
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   79   65       84       # 19   # 10    #159   #333
DPPI                   +17.70   81.5 64       93.6     # 11   # 16    #202   #359 
ESPN BPI               +22.50                 97.4     #  7   # 10    #152   #354
Whitlock               +17.01                          # 13   # 10    #182   #278
Colley Matrix          +16.65                          # 11   # 12    #140   #356
Donchess               +24.50   86.7 62.2     98.2     # 21   # 10    #154   #356
Haslametrics           +22.07   83   60                # 13           #174
INCCStats              +20.00   81   61       97       # 10           #156
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               # 18           #143
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       # 11           #154
Pomeroy offense                                        # 26           #169
Pomeroy defense                                        #  8           #191
Pomeroy tempo                                          #118           #312
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +20.91   82.6 61.0     94.8
scatter                  3.82    2.2  2.4      4.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #256 Howard                      87  57   +25.24    +4.76
HOME   # 29 North Carolina              92  89    +6.46    -3.46
NEUT   # 22 Michigan St.                77  69    +1.32    +6.68
HOME   #213 Oakland                     78  57   +21.62    -0.62
HOME   #131 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +18.36    -0.36
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        75  72    -5.98    +8.98
HOME   #116 Furman                      86  51   +16.45   +18.55
AWAY   # 51 Creighton                   63  76    +2.97   -15.97
AWAY   # 53 Missouri                    67  76    +2.95   -11.95
HOME   # 83 N.C. State                  75  60   +13.39    +1.61
HOME   #176 Brown                       83  62   +20.22             0.972
HOME   # 45 West Virginia               77  68    +8.80             0.797
AWAY   # 73 UCF                         79  73    +5.84             0.710
HOME   # 57 Arizona St.                 80  70   +10.26             0.834
AWAY   # 24 Cincinnati                  70  72    -1.80             0.432
AWAY   #  5 Iowa St.                    76  83    -7.59             0.236
HOME   # 90 Kansas St.                  82  68   +14.21             0.910
AWAY   # 88 TCU                         75  68    +6.89             0.742
HOME   #  4 Houston                     68  69    -1.04             0.461
HOME   # 73 UCF                         83  70   +12.84             0.888
AWAY   # 18 Baylor                      76  78    -2.28             0.415
HOME   #  5 Iowa St.                    79  80    -0.59             0.478
AWAY   # 90 Kansas St.                  79  72    +7.21             0.752
HOME   # 76 Colorado                    80  67   +12.83             0.887
AWAY   # 63 Utah                        81  77    +4.69             0.671
AWAY   # 41 BYU                         79  77    +1.36             0.551
HOME   #101 Oklahoma St.                87  71   +15.85             0.933
AWAY   # 76 Colorado                    77  71    +5.83             0.709
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  78  73    +4.32             0.659
AWAY   #  4 Houston                     64  72    -8.04             0.224
HOME   # 21 Arizona                     81  76    +4.96             0.680

Here is Brown's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #288 Siena                       71  72    +2.03    -3.03
HOME   #215 Maine                       67  69    +5.52    -7.52
HOME   #360 New Hampshire               76  58   +16.30    +1.70
HOME   #307 Holy Cross                  65  73   +10.23   -18.23
HOME   #275 Sacred Heart                89  70    +8.84   +10.16
AWAY   #357 Canisius                    83  76    +8.22    -1.22
HOME   #312 Stony Brook                 77  54   +10.92   +12.08
AWAY   #240 Vermont                     60  53    -0.55    +7.55
AWAY   #183 Bryant                      76  75    -3.29    +4.29
HOME   # 89 Rhode Island                84  80    -3.35    +7.35
AWAY   # 10 Kansas                      62  83   -20.22             0.028
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, hoshi, USAF Jayhawk, jaythawk1

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