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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for North Carolina State game
- asteroid
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4 months 2 days ago #33242
by asteroid
Kansas is going for the sweep. Of the state of North Carolina. Having
already defeated North Carolina, Duke, and Wilmington, only NC State
stands in the way of the sweep.
The good new is that it is a home game for Kansas. The Jayhawks have
not faired well on the road so far this season.
All the usual prognosticators are picking Kansas to win the game, and
by an average of 12.7 points. Seven Overtimes is the pessimist with
a mere 7 point margin, while Dunkel is the optimist with a 17.5 point
margin.
The Wolfpack started with five cupcakes, all victories, before taking
on four top tier teams, losing the first three, but surviving the
weakest of those top tier teams. Against those three toughest
opponents, the Wolfpack managed at most 61 points. Those are
Pomeroy's #25, #61, and #95 defenses. Kansas has Pomeroy's #8
defense. One might expect the Jayhawks to give up fewer than 61
points; then again, Kansas plays at a slightly faster tempo than
Texas, Purdue, and BYU, so maybe the Wolfpack might score in the
low to mid 60s. The average of the various prognostications is 66.
Both teams are showing negative trends, though the statistical
significance is weak for Kansas and slightly less weak for North
Carolina State.
Creighton and Missouri exposed weaknesses in the Jayhawks, so one
might expect Self to have implemented countermeasures. We shall
see if future opponents try the same tactics as Creighton and
Missouri.
Rock Chalk!
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats NCST KU Defensive Stats NCST KU
Points/Game 74.7 78.8 Opp Points/Game 65.4 68.1
Avg Score Margin +9.3 +10.7 Opp Effective FG % 45.9 47.0
Assists/Game 13.1 19.0 Off Rebounds/Gm 10.0 7.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.5 37.1 Def Rebounds/Gm 21.6 25.2
Effective FG % 51.6 54.7 Blocks/Game 4.4 4.1
Off Rebound % 30.5 25.0 Steals/Game 7.3 7.4
FTA/FGA 0.381 0.209 Personal Fouls/Gm 18.6 15.8
Turnover % 12.8 13.3
My Stats Comparison KU NC State
=================== ============= ============
performance +0.92 +0.07
inconsistency 10.12 8.64
trend -1.13 ± 1.33 -1.22 ± 0.91
mental toughness -0.29 ± 0.35 +0.01 ± 0.27
average total pts 146.89 140.10
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, though this game will create one for when we play BYU.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Jayden Taylor (guard)
most points Marcus Hill (guard)
most rebounds Brandon Huntley-Hatfield (forward)
most assists Michael O'Connell (guard)
most steals Jayden Taylor (guard)
most blocks Ben Middlebrooks (forward)
most turnovers Jayden Taylor (guard)
most fouls Dontrez Styles (forward)
Reserve forward Ismael Diouf is out with an unspecified "injury", and reserve guard
Mike James is out with a knee injury. I put "injury" in quotation marks for Diouf
because Greenfield has him listed as "suspension", which is not the sort of description
one usually uses for a physical injury. Makes me wonder whether he could be "reinstated"
at any time. He averages 5.3 minutes and 1.3 points per game.
7-2 7-3
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas NC State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Massey +8.00 76 68 77 # 12 # 9 # 68 # 94
Pomeroy +12.94 78 65 88.9 # 11 # 15 # 78 #304
Greenfield +14.00 79 65 # 10 # 8 # 68 # 78
Dunkel +17.50 84 67 # 30 # 35
Vegas (via Dunkel) +14.00 80 66
Dolphin Predictive +11.48 76 64 84.0 # 18 # 12 # 82 #103
Real Time # # # #
Seven Overtimes +7.00 75 68 79 # 44 # 12 # 75 #123
DPPI +13.80 79 65 88.7 # 12 # 15 # 91 #166
ESPN BPI +12.30 87.7 # 8 # 9 # 58 #172
Whitlock +11.58 # 14 # 11 # 78 # 66
Colley Matrix +15.57 # 5 # 11 #102 #206
Donchess +10.90 81.5 71 85.6 # 20 # 10 # 57 #219
Haslametrics +15.71 77 62 # 12 # 97
INCCStats +13.00 78 65 89 # 10 # 78
common opponents
NCAA NET # 18 #108
LRMC # # # #
Massey composite # 11 # 78
Pomeroy offense # 22 # 98
Pomeroy defense # 8 # 82
Pomeroy tempo # 91 #270
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +12.70 78.5 66.0 85.0
scatter 2.85 2.6 2.4 4.7
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #271 Howard 87 57 +25.40 +4.60
HOME # 31 North Carolina 92 89 +6.58 -3.58
NEUT # 22 Michigan St. 77 69 +1.60 +6.40
HOME #184 Oakland 78 57 +19.74 +1.26
HOME #139 UNC Wilmington 84 66 +18.34 -0.34
NEUT # 3 Duke 75 72 -4.84 +7.84
HOME #117 Furman 86 51 +16.58 +18.42
AWAY # 40 Creighton 63 76 +1.48 -14.48
AWAY # 51 Missouri 67 76 +2.81 -11.81
HOME # 78 N.C. State 78 65 +12.94 0.889
HOME #176 Brown 82 62 +19.93 0.970
HOME # 46 West Virginia 75 66 +9.11 0.805
AWAY # 80 UCF 78 71 +6.57 0.733
HOME # 54 Arizona St. 79 69 +9.90 0.825
AWAY # 18 Cincinnati 70 72 -2.28 0.415
AWAY # 6 Iowa St. 74 81 -7.35 0.244
HOME # 70 Kansas St. 81 68 +12.25 0.877
AWAY # 91 TCU 75 68 +7.03 0.747
HOME # 4 Houston 67 67 -0.45 0.483
HOME # 80 UCF 81 68 +13.57 0.900
AWAY # 12 Baylor 74 77 -2.62 0.402
HOME # 6 Iowa St. 78 78 -0.35 0.487
AWAY # 70 Kansas St. 77 72 +5.25 0.690
HOME # 75 Colorado 79 67 +12.65 0.884
AWAY # 64 Utah 79 74 +4.83 0.676
AWAY # 44 BYU 78 76 +2.00 0.575
HOME # 83 Oklahoma St. 86 72 +14.13 0.909
AWAY # 75 Colorado 76 70 +5.65 0.703
HOME # 25 Texas Tech 77 71 +5.54 0.700
AWAY # 4 Houston 63 71 -7.45 0.241
HOME # 30 Arizona 83 77 +6.39 0.727
Here is North Carolina State's season to date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #342 USC Upstate 97 66 +21.57 +9.43
HOME #236 Presbyterian 81 72 +13.44 -4.44
HOME #273 Coastal Carolina 82 70 +14.63 -2.63
HOME #256 Colgate 72 49 +14.32 +8.68
HOME #215 William & Mary 84 61 +13.30 +9.70
NEUT # 17 Purdue 61 71 -7.66 -2.34
NEUT # 44 BYU 61 72 -4.09 -6.91
HOME # 37 Texas 59 63 -1.40 -2.60
HOME # 65 Florida St. 84 74 +1.98 +8.02
HOME #363 Coppin St. 66 56 +26.18 -16.18
AWAY # 11 Kansas 65 78 -12.94 0.111
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- NotOstertag
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4 months 1 day ago #33245
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
Thanks as always Asteroid.
I'm going to be looking at one thing going forward: 3 point shooting. If we can't stretch defenses and it allows teams to collapse around Hunter, we're dead in the water. Hunter can't handle that kind of defense, and without a consistent threat from 3, it will just continue.
It kind of amazes me how we can get all these great shooting guys to tranfer in, and then they suddenly can't shoot. Is it something in the water in Lawrence?
Bottom line, we need a well balanced bigtime win today. Hoping the guys took the time off to calibrate their aim. Last weeek's games were very very disheartening.
Side note, I was at the Missouri game at AFH last year and while it was fun to win, it kind of felt like it was preordained, so it wasn't THAT exciting (it was also a closer game than it should have been). Losing and losing badly in Columbia is the kind of thing that leaves a bad taste in your mouth for a looooong time.
I'm going to be looking at one thing going forward: 3 point shooting. If we can't stretch defenses and it allows teams to collapse around Hunter, we're dead in the water. Hunter can't handle that kind of defense, and without a consistent threat from 3, it will just continue.
It kind of amazes me how we can get all these great shooting guys to tranfer in, and then they suddenly can't shoot. Is it something in the water in Lawrence?
Bottom line, we need a well balanced bigtime win today. Hoping the guys took the time off to calibrate their aim. Last weeek's games were very very disheartening.
Side note, I was at the Missouri game at AFH last year and while it was fun to win, it kind of felt like it was preordained, so it wasn't THAT exciting (it was also a closer game than it should have been). Losing and losing badly in Columbia is the kind of thing that leaves a bad taste in your mouth for a looooong time.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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- hoshi
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4 months 22 hours ago - 4 months 22 hours ago #33248
by hoshi
“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits”. Albert Einstein
Went to the game yesterday and felt we played very well but also felt a hangover from the last two games. The crowd also was saying, prove it. Came home and watched a replay. Our performance looked a lot better on replay. Are we back yet, no but the team was locked in on defense and Zeke sure is fun to watch. Hunt also played well against a pretty good big.
“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits”. Albert Einstein
Last Edit: 4 months 22 hours ago by hoshi.
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