predictions for Missouri game

There are 364 teams in Division I Mens Basketball.  According to Pomeroy,
Missouri's strength of schedule ranks #364.  The easiest schedule in all
of Division I.  But yeah, they've played Memphis, who handed the Tigers
their only loss in the season opener.  And that 8 point margin is fairly
respectable.  Otherwise, Missouri hasn't really been tested.

Seven Overtimes is picking Missouri by a point, but everybody else,
including Massey (who was the only one to pick Creighton in Wednesday's
game) is picking Kansas.  The average is 5.45 points in favor of Kansas.

Now, throw that prediction out the window.  It's Missouri.  A rivalry
game.  And in their crib.  But Caleb Grill isn't going to play.  Or is
that a ruse?

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      MU      KU      Defensive Stats      MU      KU
Points/Game         91.1    80.3     Opp Points/Game     66.8    67.1
Avg Score Margin   +24.4   +13.1     Opp Effective FG %  46.5    46.8
Assists/Game        14.0    19.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.4     7.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.5    36.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.8    26.0
Effective FG %      59.8    55.8     Blocks/Game          3.9     4.0
Off Rebound %       35.6    23.3     Steals/Game         10.4     7.8
FTA/FGA            0.550   0.213     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.1    15.4
Turnover %          13.3    11.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU              MU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.50           +6.44    
inconsistency          9.55           17.39    
trend                 -0.23 ± 1.59    +0.30 ± 2.90
mental toughness      -0.19 ± 0.35    -0.74 ± 0.48         
average total pts     147.38          157.88 

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponents, namely Howard:

KU  +30 How at home (+26 meutral court)
MU  +15 How at home (+11 neutral court)
KU  +11 MU  on road (+15 neutral court)

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Mark Mitchell (guard)
most points        Caleb Grill (guard)
most rebounds      Josh Gray (center)
most assists       Steven Ashworth (guard)
most steals        Anthony Robinson II (guard)
most blocks        Anthony Robinson II (guard)
most turnovers     Tony Perkins (guard)
most fouls         Anthony Robinson II (guard)

Caleb Grill is out with a neck injury.  That's 13.57 points per game Missouri needs
to replace.  Reserve center Trent Burns is out with an unspecified illness.

                                                           7-1            7-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Missouri
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +4.00   76   72       64       #  7   # 10    # 65   #292
Pomeroy                 +4.80   79   74       67.5     #  9   # 22    # 59   #364
Greenfield              +5.50   80   74.5              #  9   #  8    # 53   #143
Dunkel                  +9.00   79   70                # 24           # 94
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   80   74                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +3.70   79   75       61.9     # 12   # 10    # 52   #133
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   76   77       75       # 19   # 14    # 70   #344
DPPI                    +2.40   78   76                #  9   # 15    # 79   #341 
ESPN BPI                +5.50                 70.6     #  7   # 13    # 54   #353
Whitlock                +5.33                          # 10   #  8    # 70   #233
Colley Matrix           +8.23                          #  3   # 34    #123   #205
Donchess                +5.50   80   74.5     67.1     # 16   # 12    # 81   #349
Haslametrics            +5.27   80   74                # 10           # 47
INCCStats               +6.00   80   74       72       #  7           # 63
common opponents       +11.00    
NCAA NET                                               # 16           # 49
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  4           # 69
Pomeroy offense                                        # 16           # 36
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           #103
Pomeroy tempo                                          #105           #121
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.45   78.8 74.1     68.3
scatter                  2.79    1.5  1.9      4.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #276 Howard                      87  57   +26.59    +3.41
HOME   # 31 North Carolina              92  89    +7.62    -4.62
NEUT   # 21 Michigan St.                77  69    +2.56    +5.44
HOME   #184 Oakland                     78  57   +20.63    +0.37
HOME   #138 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +19.30    -1.30
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        75  72    -3.68    +6.68
HOME   #115 Furman                      86  51   +17.47   +17.53
AWAY   # 40 Creighton                   63  76    +2.51   -15.51
AWAY   # 59 Missouri                    79  74    +4.80             0.675
HOME   # 69 N.C. State                  78  65   +12.77             0.886
HOME   #189 Brown                       82  61   +21.56             0.979
HOME   # 56 West Virginia               76  65   +10.80             0.846
AWAY   # 79 UCF                         78  71    +7.50             0.761
HOME   # 50 Arizona St.                 79  68   +10.83             0.847
AWAY   # 13 Cincinnati                  69  71    -1.97             0.426
AWAY   #  6 Iowa St.                    73  79    -5.48             0.302
HOME   # 71 Kansas St.                  81  67   +13.20             0.894
AWAY   # 82 TCU                         75  67    +7.34             0.756
HOME   #  5 Houston                     68  67    +0.68             0.526
HOME   # 79 UCF                         82  67   +14.50             0.915
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                      74  75    -0.70             0.474
HOME   #  6 Iowa St.                    77  75    +1.52             0.557
AWAY   # 71 Kansas St.                  77  71    +6.20             0.721
HOME   # 77 Colorado                    79  65   +14.09             0.908
AWAY   # 63 Utah                        79  73    +5.63             0.703
AWAY   # 47 BYU                         78  75    +3.15             0.617
HOME   # 92 Oklahoma St.                84  69   +15.80             0.932
AWAY   # 77 Colorado                    76  69    +7.09             0.749
HOME   # 20 Texas Tech                  76  70    +5.94             0.713
AWAY   #  5 Houston                     65  71    -6.32             0.275
HOME   # 29 Arizona                     83  75    +7.47             0.760

Here is Missouri's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   # 34 Memphis                     75  83    -7.57    -0.43
HOME   #276 Howard                      77  62   +18.46    -3.46
HOME   #253 Eastern Washington          84  77   +17.67   -10.67
HOME   #364 Mississippi Valley St.     111  39   +31.99   +40.01
HOME   #264 Pacific                     91  56   +18.04   +16.96
HOME   #362 Arkansas Pine Bluff        112  63   +29.49   +19.51
HOME   #352 Lindenwood                  81  61   +25.17    -5.17
HOME   #117 California                  98  93   +10.23    -5.23
HOME   #  9 Kansas                      74  79    -4.80             0.325