predictions for Creighton game

And now it's time for a true road game.  In fact, how about two in a row?

The Big East Battle has not started well for the Big 12.  An undefeated
Cincinnati squad rolled into Philadelphia and lost to Villanova by 8,
while BYU headed east to Providence and lost by a whopping 19 points.
Big 12 teams were favored to win in both instances.  With Kansas also on
the road and ranked higher, that does not bode well for the Jayhawks.

Massey's prediction of a 1 point loss also does not bode well for the
Jayhawks.  Massey is rarely the contrarian, but fortuantely in this case
he is.  Everybody else is picking the Jayhawks, and by an average of 4.8
points.  Colley is the optimist based on his extremely low ranking for
Creighton.  Seven Overtimes has Creighton ranked almost as low as Colley
does, and his predicted margin is almost as large as Colley's.

The wild card in all this is the health of leading scorer and rebounder
Ryan Kalkbrenner.  Although he did play in Creighton's three losses, he
did not play in the win against Notre Dame.  It's not clear whether he
will be able to play against Kansas.

Top tier opponent, true road game, great resume builder for the
tournament, assuming Kansas can come away with the win.  And the
computer ratings boost teams that win by more than expectation, as
we saw with the Furman game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Cre      KU      Defensive Stats     Cre      KU
Points/Game         77.6    82.7     Opp Points/Game     69.1    65.9
Avg Score Margin    +8.5   +16.9     Opp Effective FG %  43.7    45.3
Assists/Game        17.5    20.9     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.3     7.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   41.1    37.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     29.9    26.9
Effective FG %      53.7    58.1     Blocks/Game          5.3     4.4
Off Rebound %       26.7    23.9     Steals/Game          3.4     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.317   0.229     Personal Fouls/Gm   11.5    15.3
Turnover %          16.5    12.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU          Creighton
===================   =============   ============
performance           +2.38           -2.52    
inconsistency          6.54            8.56    
trend                 +2.00 ± 1.02    -0.92 ± 1.38
mental toughness      -0.03 ± 0.27    -0.45 ± 0.22         
average total pts     148.57          146.75 

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Steven Ashworth (guard)
most points        Ryan Kalkbrenner (center)
most rebounds      Ryan Kalkbrenner (center)
most assists       Steven Ashworth (guard)
most steals        Jamiya Neal (guard)
most blocks        Ryan Kalkbrenner (center)
most turnovers     Steven Ashworth (guard)
most fouls         Jamiya Neal (guard)

Kalkbrenner is not 100 percent.  Whether he will play or not is the big question.
Reserve guards Fedor Zugic and Larry Johnson are out with an ankle and knee injury,
respectively.

                                                           7-0            5-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Creighton
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -1.00   72   73       49       #  3   # 15    # 59   # 60
Pomeroy                 +5.40   80   74       69.5     #  6   # 58    # 53   #198
Greenfield              +4.00   78   74                #  6   #  9    # 53   # 41
Dunkel                  +1.00   79   78                # 19           # 63
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.50   78   74                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +3.77   76   72       62.3     #  8   # 10    # 56   # 37
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
Seven Overtimes        +10.00   79   69       84       #  2   # 20    #115   #142
DPPI                    +3.90   77.5 74       63.0     #  8   # 33    # 67   #136 
ESPN BPI                +2.80                 61.0     #  6   # 31    # 31   # 66
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix          +12.03                          #  3   # 34    #123   #205
Donchess                +3.30   77   74       60.3     # 12   # 16    # 35   #159
Haslametrics            +5.66   79   74                #  6           # 36
INCCStats               +7.00   79   72       74       #  5           # 50
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               #  9           # 98
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  4           # 63
Pomeroy offense                                        # 10           # 52
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 55
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 96           # 86
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +4.80   77.7 73.5     65.4
scatter                  3.44    2.2  2.2     10.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 25-6:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #277 Howard                      87  57   +28.38    +1.62
HOME   # 16 North Carolina              92  89    +7.25    -4.25
NEUT   # 35 Michigan St.                77  69    +6.62    +1.38
HOME   #152 Oakland                     78  57   +20.73    +0.27
HOME   #136 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +20.82    -2.82
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        75  72    -1.94    +4.94
HOME   #120 Furman                      86  51   +19.46   +15.54
AWAY   # 53 Creighton                   80  74    +5.40             0.695
AWAY   # 61 Missouri                    81  75    +6.16             0.720
HOME   # 71 N.C. State                  82  67   +14.54             0.915
HOME   #198 Brown                       85  61   +23.49             0.987
HOME   # 55 West Virginia               79  67   +12.22             0.876
AWAY   # 78 UCF                         81  72    +8.92             0.800
HOME   # 52 Arizona St.                 82  69   +12.27             0.877
AWAY   # 15 Cincinnati                  72  72    -0.45             0.483
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    76  80    -3.36             0.376
HOME   # 69 Kansas St.                  82  68   +14.23             0.911
AWAY   # 82 TCU                         77  68    +9.12             0.806
HOME   #  5 Houston                     71  68    +2.98             0.611
HOME   # 78 UCF                         84  69   +15.92             0.934
AWAY   # 23 Baylor                      76  75    +0.64             0.524
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    80  76    +3.64             0.635
AWAY   # 69 Kansas St.                  79  71    +7.23             0.753
HOME   # 86 Colorado                    82  66   +16.34             0.939
AWAY   # 60 Utah                        81  75    +6.27             0.723
AWAY   # 47 BYU                         80  75    +4.62             0.669
HOME   # 98 Oklahoma St.                88  70   +18.31             0.958
AWAY   # 86 Colorado                    79  69    +9.34             0.811
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                  78  71    +7.47             0.760
AWAY   #  5 Houston                     68  72    -4.02             0.352
HOME   # 29 Arizona                     85  76    +9.34             0.811

Here is Creighton's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #180 UT Rio Grande Valley        99  86   +15.09    -2.09
HOME   #344 Fairleigh Dickinson         96  70   +26.52    -0.52
HOME   #350 Houston Christian           78  43   +25.63    +9.37
HOME   #270 Kansas City                 79  56   +19.62    +3.38
HOME   # 48 Nebraska                    63  74    +2.85   -13.85
NEUT   # 40 San Diego St.               53  71    -1.62   -16.38
NEUT   # 26 Texas A&M                   73  77    -3.66    -0.34
NEUT   # 83 Notre Dame                  80  76    +3.71    +0.29
HOME   #  6 Kansas                      74  80    -5.40             0.305