predictions for Furman game

I like to divide Division I into three tiers, top, middle, and bottom.
The bottom tier teams are usually cupcakes, don't offer very competitive
games, and I'd prefer that Kansas didn't schedule them.  The middle tier
teams offer winnable games and enough competition that you can't just show
up and expect to win.  I'm generally okay with the non-conference season
featuring a few of these opponents.  The top tier teams attract television
coverage on one of the main channels, offer stiff competition, bolster your
tournament resume, and tend to bring in a lot of revenue, even though it may
mean playing away from Allen Field House half the time.  With 364 Division I
teams, there are roughly 121 teams in each of these tiers.  Admittedly, if
you looked strictly at power ratings, one might decide to have an unequal
number of teams in each tier, but the ratings are unstable at this point of
the season and will remain that way until teams are multiply connected,
which usually happens around the middle of December, just prior to the
onset of conference play.  Having said all that, Furman at the moment
qualifies as a top tier opponent.  The Paladins are undefeated in 7 games
so far this season.  However, one of those games was against an NAIA
opponent, and Furman ran up the score in a 58 point win.  Another one of
those games came against a Division III opponent, and again Furman ran up
the score in a 76 point win.  One of the five Division I opponents ranks
near the bottom of the third tier, and Furman cruised to a 21 point win.
Against more respectable competition, the Paladins managed at most a 9
point win.  The toughest opponents they've played are #126 Seattle (a 5 point
win) and #136 Belmont (a 2 point win).  So it's easy to conclude that Furman
may be overrated.  But they're the kind of opponent that you cannot take lightly.

Today's game is part of Teddy's Chocolate Las Vegas Showdown, but we get
to play at home.  It's considered an MTE (multi-team event), which allows
Kansas to schedule 31 regular season games.  I'm sure that if it had been
just the Duke game, Kansas would have looked elsewhere for an MTE to get
that full schedule.

Colley has Furman ranked as high as #29, which leads to the smallest
predicted margin of victory for Kansas, just 7.8 points.  At the other
end of the spectrum is Dunkel, who is picking Kansas to win by 24.5 points.
The average of 13 predictions is a margin of 16.7 points.  But will that
margin occur in a low-scoring game, like 60 to 43, or in a high-scoring
game, like 97 to 80?

Furman hasn't allowed more than 74 points to any opponent, so they seem to
have a decent defense.  Then again, Furman hasn't faced an offense like
Kansas'.  The Paladins' offense, on the other had, features a reliance on
the three pointer, and they can get hot from behind the arc.  But again,
they haven't faced a defense like Kansas'.  They have played a game with
just 113 total points, as well as a game with 172 total points.  If you
ignore the games against the non-Division I opponents, Furman averages
133.8 total points, which argues for a lower scoring game.

Another concern is that this game could be a trap game.  We're coming
off the Duke win high, and after Furman, we have the Big East Battle
with Creighton, who is no slouch, but maybe not quite as formidable as
we thought earlier in the season.  Hopefully the experience provided
by our upperclassmen will prevent any possibility of a trap game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Fur      KU      Defensive Stats     Fur      KU
Points/Game         71.4    82.2     Opp Points/Game     62.4    68.3
Avg Score Margin    +9.0   +13.8     Opp Effective FG %  42.7    46.6
Assists/Game        17.8    20.2     Off Rebounds/Gm      5.6     6.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.6    36.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.8    26.2
Effective FG %      55.9    57.1     Blocks/Game          4.2     4.7
Off Rebound %       19.7    22.9     Steals/Game          6.4     7.3
FTA/FGA            0.306   0.252     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.2    15.8
Turnover %          16.6    13.0   

My Stats Comparison        KU            Furman
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.42           +4.32    
inconsistency          4.35            5.09    
trend                 +0.06 ± 1.16    +0.99 ± 1.77
mental toughness      +0.16 ± 0.16    -0.04 ± 0.59         
average total pts     150.5           133.8  

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       P. Jay Smith Jr. (guard)
most points        P. Jay Smith Jr. (guard)
most rebounds      Cooper Bowser (forward)
most assists       P. Jay Smith Jr. (guard)
most steals        P. Jay Smith Jr. (guard)
most blocks        Cooper Bowser (forward)
most turnovers     Garrett Hien (forward)
most fouls         Tyrese Hughey (forward)

Dang, Kansas has to contend with another Cooper.

                                                           6-0            7-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Furman
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +14.00   80   66       90       #  3   # 13    # 76   #303
Pomeroy                +17.78   81   63       95.4     #  8   # 64    #116   #250
Greenfield             +21.00   84   63                #  9   #  8    #106   #261
Dunkel                 +24.50   88   64                # 23           # 97
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +21.00   83.5 62.5                                      
Dolphin Predictive     +12.91   77   64       86.4     # 17   # 12    # 73   #169
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
Seven Overtimes        +11.00   76   65       68       # 21   # 17    # 58   #289
DPPI                   +13.60   78   64       91.9     # 11   # 63    # 99   #222 
ESPN BPI               +19.80                 96.0     #  7   # 32    #120   #341
Whitlock                                               # 22   #       #269   #   
Colley Matrix           +7.82                          #  9   #109    # 29   #318
Donchess               +16.70   84.5 68       94.6     # 10   # 16    #127   #286
Haslametrics           +17.71   81   64                #  7           #100
INCCStats              +19.00   82   63       96       #  6           #119
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  9           # 93
Pomeroy offense                                        # 12           #172
Pomeroy defense                                        # 14           # 90
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 76           #259
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +16.68   81.4 64.2     89.8
scatter                  4.63    3.6  1.6      9.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #257 Howard                      87  57   +26.16    +3.84
HOME   # 17 North Carolina              92  89    +5.92    -2.92
NEUT   # 39 Michigan St.                77  69    +5.48    +2.52
HOME   #227 Oakland                     78  57   +23.59    -2.59
HOME   #196 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +22.54    -4.54
NEUT   #  5 Duke                        75  72    -3.22    +6.22
HOME   #116 Furman                      81  63   +17.78             0.954
AWAY   # 51 Creighton                   79  75    +4.08             0.650
AWAY   # 56 Missouri                    79  75    +4.26             0.656
HOME   # 68 N.C. State                  82  69   +13.03             0.891
HOME   #222 Brown                       86  63   +23.67             0.987
HOME   # 50 West Virginia               79  68   +10.73             0.845
AWAY   # 79 UCF                         81  73    +7.74             0.768
HOME   # 60 Arizona St.                 82  71   +11.59             0.863
AWAY   # 10 Cincinnati                  72  75    -3.09             0.385
AWAY   #  6 Iowa St.                    76  81    -5.09             0.315
HOME   # 69 Kansas St.                  81  68   +13.12             0.892
AWAY   # 82 TCU                         77  69    +8.13             0.779
HOME   #  4 Houston                     70  70    +0.44             0.517
HOME   # 79 UCF                         84  70   +14.74             0.918
AWAY   # 22 Baylor                      76  77    -0.82             0.469
HOME   #  6 Iowa St.                    80  78    +1.91             0.572
AWAY   # 69 Kansas St.                  78  72    +6.12             0.718
HOME   # 80 Colorado                    82  67   +14.52             0.915
AWAY   # 47 Utah                        80  76    +3.84             0.642
AWAY   # 32 BYU                         78  77    +1.08             0.541
HOME   # 94 Oklahoma St.                88  71   +16.41             0.940
AWAY   # 80 Colorado                    78  71    +7.52             0.761
HOME   # 20 Texas Tech                  79  73    +5.99             0.715
AWAY   #  4 Houston                     67  73    -6.56             0.268
HOME   # 30 Arizona                     85  77    +7.90             0.772

Here is Furman's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        Columbia International     104  46
AWAY   #136 Belmont                     76  74    -1.89    +3.89
HOME   #156 Jacksonville                78  69    +6.20    +2.80
HOME   #221 Tulane                      75  67    +9.57    -1.57
Div3        Oglethorpe                 124  48
AWAY   #317 Charleston Southern         67  46    +8.52   +12.48
NEUT   #126 Seattle                     61  56    +1.00    +4.00
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                      63  81   -17.78             0.046