predictions for Duke game

Can someone help me figure this one out?  Massey has Kansas ranked #7
and Duke ranked #12.  Today's game is on a neutral court.  The higher
ranked team ought to be favored, right?  Wrong!  Massey is picking
Duke to win by a score of 72 to 69.  How is that possible?  It's not
the home court advantage; it's nobody's home court.  It's not distance
traveled; Las Vegas is closer to Lawrence than it is to Durham.  (Or
did Duke stay in the Mountain Time zone after its win at Arizona last
Friday?)  How can you take a power rating of 8.89 (Kansas) and a power
rating of 8.76 (Duke) and conclude that Kansas will lose by 3?

I'll speculate that Massey is taking into account by how much Duke
played above expectation in all four of its wins.  Even after taking
into account the 10 point below-expectation performance in the Kentucky
loss, Duke is averaging 9.5 points above expectation, and that would be
enough to overcome Massey's rating difference.  But hey, if you're going
to take into account performance in your game predictions, then why not
take performance into account in your rating?  Makes no sense to me.

Picking Kansas to lose is common, though those prognosticators at least
have Duke ranked higher than Kansas.  Only Colley has Duke ranked so low
that Kansas is favored in the game.  The DPPI is particularly pessimistic.
Dunkel, inexplicably, has Duke ranked much higher than Kansas, yet is
picking Kansas to win the game.  Go figure.  Does Dunkel use some sort
of secret sauce in his predictions, like a luck factor or gut feeling?

Both Kansas and Duke have played two marquee opponents and three others.
Kansas did North Carolina at home and Michigan State at a neutral site,
whereas Duke did Kentucky at a neutral site and Arizona on the road.
Because today's game is a neutral court affair, that slight difference
in where the marquee opponents were played shouldn't matter much.

Duke has Pomeroy's #1 defense, allowing just 0.88 points per possession.
Meanwhile, Kansas has Pomeroy's #13 offense, scoring 1.184 points per
possession.  Aside from Kentucky's 77 points, the most the Blue Devils
have allowed is 62 to Maine.  They held Wofford to 35 points.  Kansas is
no slouch on defense, allowing only 0.941 points per possession, while
Duke's offense is just behind Kansas at 1.183 points per possession.
The other striking difference is in consistency.  Kansas has played all
five games within 5 points of expectation.  Duke has been all over the
place.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Duke     KU      Defensive Stats     Duke     KU
Points/Game         84.6    83.6     Opp Points/Game     57.4    67.6
Avg Score Margin   +27.2   +16.0     Opp Effective FG %  40.1    44.2
Assists/Game        17.4    19.8     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.6     6.8
Total Rebounds/Gm   44.0    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     29.6    28.0
Effective FG %      55.6    57.3     Blocks/Game          4.4     4.8
Off Rebound %       35.2    22.2     Steals/Game          8.4     6.4
FTA/FGA            0.241   0.259     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.8    16.2
Turnover %          12.5    11.5   

My Stats Comparison        KU             Duke
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.06           +9.46    
inconsistency          3.26           13.64    
trend                 -1.53 ± 0.80    +2.02 ± 4.84
mental toughness      +0.02 ± 0.18    -0.62 ± 0.55         
average total pts     151.2           142.0  

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Cooper Flagg (guard) tied with Kon Knueppel
most points        Cooper Flagg (guard)
most rebounds      Cooper Flagg (guard)
most assists       Cooper Flagg (guard)
most steals        Cooper Flagg (guard)
most blocks        Cooper Flagg (guard)
most turnovers     Cooper Flagg (guard)
most fouls         Cooper Flagg (guard) tied with Maliq Brown and Tyrese Proctor

Does Duke look a little one-dimensional?  Get Flagg in foul trouble, and we'll be
fine.  Or put Marcus Garrett on him.  Oh wait...

                                                           5-0            4-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Duke
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -3.00   69   72       43       #  7   # 26    # 12   # 11
Pomeroy                 -4.22   71   75       34.5     #  9   #144    #  4   #104
Greenfield              -3.50   72.5 76                # 11   # 13    #  3   #  3
Dunkel                  +1.50   76   75                # 33           #  6
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -3.50   72   75       40.0                             
Dolphin Predictive      -6.23   68   74       29.9     # 19   # 22    #  2   #  2
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
Seven Overtimes         -1.00   73   74       53       # 12   # 47    #  9   # 60
DPPI                   -14.20   66   80        6.7     # 24   # 80    #  4   #104 
ESPN BPI                -5.30                 30.0     # 10   # 59    #  2   # 55
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix           +7.48                          #  6   # 95    # 58   #201
Donchess                -1.80   74   76       45.8     #  7   # 37    #  5   # 72
Haslametrics            -5.44   70   76                # 10           #  2
INCCStats               -2.00   70   72       43       #  7           #  2
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  9           #  6
Pomeroy offense                                        # 13           # 15
Pomeroy defense                                        # 14           #  1
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 91           #220
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -3.17   71.1 75.0     36.2
scatter                  4.88    2.9  2.2     13.4

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #258 Howard                      87  57   +25.91    +4.09
HOME   # 12 North Carolina              92  89    +4.41    -1.41
NEUT   # 40 Michigan St.                77  69    +5.01    +2.99
HOME   #226 Oakland                     78  57   +23.27    -2.27
HOME   #164 UNC Wilmington              84  66   +21.11    -3.11
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        71  75    -4.22             0.345
HOME   #120 Furman                      83  65   +17.98             0.955
AWAY   # 33 Creighton                   78  77    +1.04             0.539
AWAY   # 49 Missouri                    78  75    +3.20             0.619
HOME   # 54 N.C. State                  83  72   +11.23             0.856
HOME   #241 Brown                       87  63   +24.65             0.990
HOME   # 71 West Virginia               82  69   +13.30             0.896
AWAY   # 77 UCF                         80  73    +6.84             0.741
HOME   # 64 Arizona St.                 83  70   +12.51             0.882
AWAY   #  7 Cincinnati                  72  76    -4.12             0.348
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    73  77    -3.93             0.355
HOME   # 65 Kansas St.                  81  68   +12.48             0.881
AWAY   # 59 TCU                         77  72    +4.89             0.678
HOME   #  1 Houston                     71  72    -0.94             0.465
HOME   # 77 UCF                         84  70   +13.84             0.905
AWAY   # 20 Baylor                      76  77    -1.49             0.444
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    77  74    +3.07             0.614
AWAY   # 65 Kansas St.                  77  72    +5.48             0.698
HOME   # 82 Colorado                    80  66   +13.89             0.905
AWAY   # 52 Utah                        80  76    +3.86             0.642
AWAY   # 26 BYU                         78  78    -0.05             0.498
HOME   # 96 Oklahoma St.                88  72   +15.86             0.933
AWAY   # 82 Colorado                    77  70    +6.89             0.743
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                  78  72    +5.93             0.712
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     67  75    -7.94             0.227
HOME   # 24 Arizona                     83  77    +6.73             0.738

Here is Duke's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #215 Maine                       96  62   +26.89    +7.11
HOME   #257 Army                       100  58   +28.87   +13.13
NEUT   # 13 Kentucky                    72  77    +5.48   -10.48
HOME   #162 Wofford                     86  35   +23.45   +27.55
AWAY   # 24 Arizona                     69  55    +4.01    +9.99
NEUT   #  9 Kansas                      75  71    +4.22             0.655