predictions for UNC Wilmington game

What a contrast.  From a team whose average total points was 125 to a team
whose average total points is 175.  And that's not counting Wilmington's
season opener against Division II Mount Olive, in which 234 total points
were scored.

Also unlike Oakland, UNC WIlmington is undefeated.  Yes, one of those
wins was over a Division II team, and another was over a cupcake, but
their third win came over a middle tier team.  But Kansas is still a
22 point favroite.

Looking at Greenfield's stats, the one that really jumps out at you is
the number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt.  Almost one
to one.  Seriously?  Does Wilmington win by fouling out their opponent,
until only walk-ons are left to play?  Be prepared for a long game, if
they maintain that level of stoppages in action.

All my usual prognosticators are projecting a Kansas win.  The Colley
prediction stands out for how small the mergin is.  Part of it is the
high ranking for Wilmington in Colley's Matrix (#42), and part of it
could be the fact that I'm still using the scaling factor (ratings
units to points) from last season, though it shouldn't change by THAT
much.  At the opposite extreme is Seven Overtimes, who has Wilmington
ranked really low.  Almost everybody else is in the 19 to 23 range.

Enjoy the tune-up for Duke.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     UNCW     KU      Defensive Stats     UNCW     KU
Points/Game         90.5    83.5     Opp Points/Game     84.5    68.0
Avg Score Margin    +6.0   +15.5     Opp Effective FG %  54.4    44.5
Assists/Game        12.0    19.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.5     7.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   42.5    38.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     29.0    27.8
Effective FG %      48.6    56.7     Blocks/Game          3.5     5.3
Off Rebound %       28.8    23.0     Steals/Game          5.5     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.865   0.260     Personal Fouls/Gm   22.0    16.3
Turnover %          12.9    11.1   

My Stats Comparison        KU             UNC-W
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.82           +0.01    
inconsistency          3.79            3.38    
trend                 -1.87 ± 1.60    -4.78 ±     
mental toughness      -0.13 ± 0.24    +6.10 ±              
average total pts     151.5           175.0  

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Donovan Newby (guard)
most points        Donovan Newby (guard)
most rebounds      Noah Ross (guard)
most assists       Josh Corbin (guard)
most steals        Makoi Mabor (forward)
most blocks        Harlan Obioha (forward)
most turnovers     Sean Moore (forward)
most fouls         Harlan Obioha (forward)

                                                           4-0            3-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Wilmington
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +15.00   82   67       91       #  6   # 24    #108   #313
Pomeroy                +22.10   90   68       98.2     #  7   #116    #160   #300
Greenfield             +23.00   89   66                #  8   #  8    #136   #322
Dunkel                 +26.00   92   66                # 34           #142
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +23.00   89   66                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +19.29   91   72       93.3     # 14   # 21    #156   #295
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
Seven Overtimes        +40.00   102  62       95       # 17   # 48    #256   #343
DPPI                   +20.80   90   70                #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +20.90                 96.6     #  9   # 62    #133   #342
Whitlock                                               # 22   #       #269   #   
Colley Matrix           +7.05                          # 11   #203    # 42   #223
Donchess               +19.30   87   68       96.3     #  6   # 46    #131   #323
Haslametrics           +22.02   85   63                #  7           #150
INCCStats              +22.00   87   65       98       #  6           #155
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  6           #131
Pomeroy offense                                        #  9           #142
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           #215
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 79           #141
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +21.57   89.5 66.6     95.5
scatter                  7.24    5.1  2.9      2.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #220 Howard                      87  57   +24.34    +5.66
HOME   # 14 North Carolina              92  89    +5.36    -2.36
NEUT   # 38 Michigan St.                77  69    +5.98    +2.02
HOME   #196 Oakland                     78  57   +23.03    -2.03
HOME   #160 UNC Wilmington              90  68   +22.10             0.982
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        76  79    -2.29             0.414
HOME   #145 Furman                      88  67   +20.53             0.974
AWAY   # 19 Creighton                   79  80    -0.83             0.469
AWAY   # 57 Missouri                    80  75    +5.03             0.683
HOME   # 61 N.C. State                  86  73   +12.64             0.884
HOME   #249 Brown                       89  63   +26.12             0.993
HOME   # 85 West Virginia               85  70   +15.47             0.928
AWAY   # 56 UCF                         80  75    +5.26             0.690
HOME   # 55 Arizona St.                 83  71   +12.13             0.874
AWAY   # 11 Cincinnati                  75  77    -2.06             0.423
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    74  77    -3.28             0.378
HOME   # 65 Kansas St.                  81  69   +12.91             0.889
AWAY   # 62 TCU                         80  74    +5.75             0.707
HOME   #  2 Houston                     73  73    -0.18             0.493
HOME   # 56 UCF                         84  71   +12.26             0.877
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                      77  79    -1.99             0.425
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    78  74    +3.72             0.637
AWAY   # 65 Kansas St.                  78  72    +5.91             0.712
HOME   # 70 Colorado                    83  69   +13.66             0.902
AWAY   # 54 Utah                        82  77    +5.04             0.683
AWAY   # 29 BYU                         80  80    +0.74             0.528
HOME   # 91 Oklahoma St.                88  72   +16.36             0.939
AWAY   # 70 Colorado                    79  72    +6.66             0.736
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  74    +4.43             0.662
AWAY   #  2 Houston                     70  77    -7.18             0.249
HOME   # 17 Arizona                     87  81    +5.93             0.713

Here is Wilmington's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        Mount Olive                143  91
HOME   #202 Georgia Southern            92  84    +5.60    +2.40
AWAY   #327 USC Upstate                 89  85    +6.38    -2.38
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      68  90   -22.10             0.018