predictions for Oakland game

This is not your father's Oakland team.  The guy who helped Oakland knock
Kentucky out of last year's NCAA tournament with ten three-pointers has
graduated, and the guy who scored 30 against NC State in an overtime loss
has transferred.  This season, they have a 1-2 record coming into the game
with Kansas, with the lone win coming against an NAIA school.  Now they're
doing the sacrificial lamb tour, playing road games against Top 50 opponents
to earn cash for their athletic department.  A blowout loss to Boise State
was followed by a respectable showing against Illinois, but ultimately a
12 point loss.  Next up are the Jayhawks, and the Golden Grizzlies are a
25 point underdog.

This game offers a little insight into how Pomeroy computes strength of
schedule.  He has Oakland ranked #8 and Kansas ranked #70.  Really?
#43 Boise State and #25 Illinois are tougher opponents than #35 Michigan
State and #13 North Carolina?  Surely it's not that third game that is
causing the high ranking for Oakland; after all, Kansas played an NCAA
Division I opponent (Howard) while Oakland played an NAIA school (Defiance).
I'll speculate that your own power ranking comes into play in Pomeroy's
system.  That is, playing #43 and #25 are really tough games for a #195
team, whereas playing #35 and #13 aren't that tough for the #7 team.

Another interesting ranking is Oakland's tempo, which is #286 out of 364
Division I teams.  Oakland's total points average 125, 32 points fewer
than for Kansas.  Expect the Golden Grizzlies to take their time on
offense.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Oak     KU      Defensive Stats      Oak     KU
Points/Game         48.5    85.3     Opp Points/Game     76.5    71.7
Avg Score Margin   -28.0   +13.7     Opp Effective FG %  54.7    43.2
Assists/Game         5.5    18.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.5     7.7
Total Rebounds/Gm   29.0    40.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     17.5    29.0
Effective FG %      34.9    54.5     Blocks/Game          3.0     5.3
Off Rebound %       21.4    23.0     Steals/Game          7.0     7.0
FTA/FGA            0.168   0.278     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.5    18.0
Turnover %          18.2    11.0   

The only stat for which Oakland exceeds Kansas is in fouls per game.
So, we'll have to earn get our points from somewhere other than the
charity stripe.

My Stats Comparison        KU             Oak
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.35           -9.52    
inconsistency          3.52           24.90    
trend                 -0.93 ± 3.39   +35.21 ±     
mental toughness      -0.22 ± 0.21   +10.96 ±              
average total pts     157.0           125.0  

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       D. Q. Cole (guard)
most points        D. Q. Cole (guard)
most rebounds      two tied
most assists       Jaylen Jones (guard)
most steals        Jayson Woodrich (guard)
most blocks        Allen David Mukeba Jr. (forward)
most turnovers     Allen David Mukeba Jr. (forward)
most fouls         Allen David Mukeba Jr. (forward)

                                                           3-0            1-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Oakland
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +20.00   82   62       95       #  4   # 17    #203   # 66
Pomeroy                +24.25   88   64       98.9     #  7   # 70    #195   #  8
Greenfield             +27.00   88   61                #  6   #  4    #228   #103
Dunkel                 +30.50   84   54                # 36           #156
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +27.00   87.5 60.5                                      
Dolphin Predictive     +21.22   80   59       96.3     # 10   # 16    #237   # 27
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
Seven Overtimes        +33.00   87   54       92       #  5   # 44    #355   # 26
DPPI                   +28.00   87   59       97       #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI               +26.90                 98.7     #  8   # 25    #237   # 46
Whitlock                                               # 22   #       #269   #   
Colley Matrix          +14.60                          # 33   #267    #288   #176
Donchess               +21.90   86   64       97.4     #  6   # 42    #164   # 12
Haslametrics           +24.79   85   60                #  6           #200
INCCStats              +23.00   84   61       98       #  5           #186
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  8           #202
Pomeroy offense                                        #  9           #241
Pomeroy defense                                        # 11           #161
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 42           #286
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +24.78   85.3 59.9     96.7
scatter                  4.79    2.6  3.4      2.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #225 Howard                      87  57   +25.76    +4.24
HOME   # 13 North Carolina              92  89    +5.56    -2.56
NEUT   # 35 Michigan St.                77  69    +5.62    +2.38
HOME   #195 Oakland                     88  64   +24.25             0.989
HOME   #160 UNC Wilmington              93  70   +22.78             0.984
NEUT   #  5 Duke                        79  80    -0.84             0.468
HOME   #144 Furman                      90  69   +21.04             0.977
AWAY   # 19 Creighton                   82  82    -0.23             0.491
AWAY   # 54 Missouri                    82  77    +5.44             0.696
HOME   # 57 N.C. State                  88  75   +13.05             0.891
HOME   #240 Brown                       91  64   +26.31             0.994
HOME   # 87 West Virginia               87  71   +15.90             0.934
AWAY   # 55 UCF                         82  76    +5.73             0.706
HOME   # 56 Arizona St.                 85  72   +12.71             0.885
AWAY   # 10 Cincinnati                  77  79    -2.02             0.424
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    76  79    -3.27             0.378
HOME   # 67 Kansas St.                  83  70   +13.20             0.894
AWAY   # 58 TCU                         82  76    +6.04             0.716
HOME   #  2 Houston                     75  75    -0.17             0.494
HOME   # 55 UCF                         86  73   +12.73             0.886
AWAY   # 16 Baylor                      79  80    -0.92             0.465
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    79  75    +3.73             0.638
AWAY   # 67 Kansas St.                  80  73    +6.20             0.721
HOME   # 75 Colorado                    84  70   +14.35             0.912
AWAY   # 53 Utah                        83  78    +5.65             0.703
AWAY   # 28 BYU                         81  80    +0.91             0.534
HOME   # 90 Oklahoma St.                90  73   +17.04             0.946
AWAY   # 75 Colorado                    80  73    +7.35             0.756
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  80  75    +4.67             0.671
AWAY   #  2 Houston                     72  79    -7.17             0.249
HOME   # 15 Arizona                     89  83    +5.76             0.707

Here is Oakland's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        Defiance                    75  52
AWAY   # 43 Boise St.                   43  87   -16.87   -27.13
AWAY   # 25 Illinois                    54  66   -20.08    +8.08
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      64  88   -24.25             0.011