predictions for Michigan State game

Like Kansas, Michigan State has played two games.  Unlike Kansas, both
of the Spartans' opponents are mid-majors/cupcakes.  They did play above
expectation against both, however.  Otherwise not much on which to base
game predictions.

All the usual prognosticators are picking Kansas to win the game, though
Dolphin is the most pessimistic of the lot, effectively expecting a
toss-up.  Dunkel, who was the odd man out in picking North Carolina in
this past Friday's game, has now gone to the opposite extreme, picking
Kansas by 15.5 points, the most optimistic of the lot.  The average of
thirteen predictions is 5.7 points.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      MSU     KU      Defensive Stats      MSU     KU
Points/Game         88.5    89.5     Opp Points/Game     58.5    73.0
Avg Score Margin   +30.0   +16.5     Opp Effective FG %  39.9    46.7
Assists/Game        21.5    19.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     13.5     7.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   46.5    36.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     28.5    26.5
Effective FG %      54.3    60.1     Blocks/Game          4.5     5.5
Off Rebound %       42.2    22.6     Steals/Game          6.0     7.0
FTA/FGA            0.406   0.256     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.0    17.5
Turnover %          12.5    10.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU             MSU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.70           +5.30    
inconsistency          5.35            5.62    
trend                 -7.56 ±         +7.95 ±     
mental toughness      -0.39 ±         -1.96 ±              
average total pts     162.5           147.0  

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jaden Akins (guard)
most points        Jaden Akins (guard)
most rebounds      Jaxon Kohler (forward)
most assists       Jeremy Fears Jr. (guard)
most steals        Jaxon Kohler (forward)
most blocks        Szymon Zapala (center)
most turnovers     Coen Carr (forward)
most fouls         Jeremy Fears Jr. (guard)

                                                           2-0            2-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     Michigan State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +1.00   71   70       53       #  8   # 65    # 17   #275
Pomeroy                 +4.68   81   76       67.1     #  8   #154    # 34   #327
Greenfield              +6.00   78   72                #  8   # 18    # 17   #258
Dunkel                 +15.50   79   63                # 52           # 18
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   78   72                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +0.09   75   75       50.3     # 13   # 53    # 14   #292
Real Time                                              #      #       #      #   
Seven Overtimes         +5.00   80   75       56       # 24   #134    # 34   #278
DPPI                    +9.00   77   68       88.3     #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +3.50                 63.6     #  7   # 85    # 19   #274
Whitlock                                               # 22   #       #269   #   
Colley Matrix           +2.00                          # 33   #267    # 89   #350
Donchess                +8.80   75.5 67       79.6     #  3   # 97    # 30   #300
Haslametrics            +6.47   76   70                #  5           # 26
INCCStats               +6.00   74   68       70       #  6           # 21
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  7           # 21
Pomeroy offense                                        #  5           # 48
Pomeroy defense                                        # 19           # 11
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 93           #246
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.73   76.8 70.6     66.0
scatter                  4.00    2.9  4.0     13.2

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #226 Howard                      87  57   +25.52    +4.48
HOME   # 16 North Carolina              92  89    +6.08    -3.08
NEUT   # 34 Michigan St.                81  76    +4.68             0.671
HOME   #211 Oakland                     91  67   +24.42             0.990
HOME   #158 UNC Wilmington              92  70   +21.35             0.978
NEUT   #  3 Duke                        80  83    -2.71             0.399
HOME   #153 Furman                      92  71   +21.36             0.978
AWAY   # 18 Creighton                   84  84    -0.53             0.480
AWAY   # 64 Missouri                    83  78    +5.37             0.694
HOME   # 58 N.C. State                  88  76   +11.89             0.869
HOME   #254 Brown                       93  66   +26.92             0.995
HOME   # 74 West Virginia               87  73   +14.01             0.907
AWAY   # 60 UCF                         81  76    +5.17             0.687
HOME   # 66 Arizona St.                 85  73   +12.93             0.889
AWAY   # 13 Cincinnati                  79  80    -1.27             0.452
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    77  80    -3.80             0.360
HOME   # 51 Kansas St.                  84  73   +10.88             0.848
AWAY   # 50 TCU                         82  78    +3.93             0.645
HOME   #  2 Houston                     76  76    +0.18             0.507
HOME   # 60 UCF                         84  72   +12.17             0.875
AWAY   # 24 Baylor                      80  80    +0.06             0.502
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    80  77    +3.20             0.619
AWAY   # 51 Kansas St.                  80  76    +3.88             0.643
HOME   # 85 Colorado                    85  71   +14.88             0.920
AWAY   # 65 Utah                        85  79    +5.82             0.709
AWAY   # 33 BYU                         83  81    +1.27             0.548
HOME   # 90 Oklahoma St.                91  74   +16.41             0.940
AWAY   # 85 Colorado                    82  74    +7.88             0.772
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                  81  76    +5.10             0.685
AWAY   #  2 Houston                     72  79    -6.82             0.260
HOME   #  6 Arizona                     86  83    +2.95             0.610

Here is Michigan State's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #263 Monmouth                    81  57   +22.67    +1.33
HOME   #331 Niagara                     96  60   +26.72    +9.28
NEUT   #  8 Kansas                      76  81    -4.68             0.329