predictions for North Carolina game

How good is North Carolina?  Against Elon in their season opener, they
played even for the first 11 minutes of the game, then the Tarheels
opened up a bit of a cushion, leading by 12 at halftime.  Then with a
10 point lead with 10:43 left to play, North Carolina had a scoring
drought for over 4 minutes, allowing Elon to tie the score at 69.
They were also tied at 71 with 6:35 to play, at which point Elon
seemed to run out of gas.  The Tarheels wound up winning by 14, but
that's more than 11 points below expectation.  So, not all that impressive
out of the gate, but still highly regarded.  Massey's composite ranking
has North Carolina #10, as high as #3 in ESPN's BPI, and as low as #15
in Wilson Empirical and Pomeroy (as of November 1, before any games were
played).

Dolphin is now on board, and his prediction is the most optimistic of
the lot, giving Kansas an 8.5 point margin.  Dunkel is the pessimist,
picking North Carolina to win by 7.5 points.  Everybody else is picking
Kansas by somewhere between 3 and 8 points.  The average is 5.3 points,
with a scatter of 4.5 points.

Otherwise, not much to go on, this being only the second game of the
season.  Kansas still isn't at full strength, as Moore is not expected
to be available.  On the other hand, Self says that Dickinson is fine.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UNC     KU      Defensive Stats      UNC     KU
Points/Game         90.0    87.0     Opp Points/Game     76.0    57.0
Avg Score Margin   +14.0   +30.0     Opp Effective FG %  53.3    44.8
Assists/Game        22.0    20.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     15.0     5.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   43.0    34.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.0    28.0
Effective FG %      48.1    70.8     Blocks/Game          7.0     7.0
Off Rebound %       34.9    21.7     Steals/Game         11.0    11.0
FTA/FGA            0.200   0.302     Personal Fouls/Gm   13.0    14.0
Turnover %           6.5    18.4   

My Stats Comparison        KU             UNC
===================   =============   ============
performance           +3.88          -11.56    
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .   ±           .   ±     
mental toughness        .   ±           .   ±              
average total pts      144.0          166.0  

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       R. J. Davis (guard)
most points        R. J. Davis (guard)
most rebounds      Jae'lyn Withers (forward)
most assists       Elliot Cadeau (guard)
most steals        Elliot Cadeau (guard)
most blocks        two tied
most turnovers     Elliot Cadeau (guard)
most fouls         Jalen Washington (forward)

                                                           1-0            1-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     North Carolina
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +3.00   75   72       58       # 15   #244    # 12   #212
Pomeroy                 +6.99   87   80       74.6     #  7   #191    # 17   #215
Greenfield              +7.50   83   75.5              #  6   #143    # 13   #162
Dunkel                  -7.50   78   85                # 52           # 18
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.50   83   75                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +8.53   80   72       75.1     # 10   #207    # 26   #199
Real Time                                              # 27   #       #247   #   
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   81   74       55       # 31   #252    # 81   #229
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                +5.20                 69.8     #  5   #184    #  9   #217
Whitlock                                               # 22   #       #269   #   
Colley Matrix                                          # 24   #       #274   #   
Donchess                +8.10   80   72       76.5     #  3   #294    #  8   #325
Haslametrics            +6.35   82   75                #  4           # 11
INCCStats               +6.00   81   75       71.0     #  5           # 10
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               #              #   
LRMC                                                   #      #       #      #   
Massey composite                                       #  5           # 10
Pomeroy offense                                        #  8           # 13
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 36
Pomeroy tempo                                          #132           # 35
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.33   81.0 75.6     68.6
scatter                  4.52    3.2  4.1      8.6

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #227 Howard                      87  57   +26.12    +3.88
HOME   # 17 North Carolina              87  80    +6.99             0.746
NEUT   # 31 Michigan St.                80  75    +4.82             0.676
HOME   #203 Oakland                     90  66   +24.53             0.990
HOME   #161 UNC Wilmington              89  67   +21.90             0.981
NEUT   #  4 Duke                        79  81    -1.57             0.441
HOME   #173 Furman                      92  69   +22.78             0.984
AWAY   # 13 Creighton                   82  83    -0.63             0.476
AWAY   # 55 Missouri                    82  78    +4.63             0.669
HOME   # 50 N.C. State                  87  76   +11.17             0.854
HOME   #242 Brown                       92  65   +26.93             0.995
HOME   # 73 West Virginia               87  73   +14.07             0.908
AWAY   # 60 UCF                         80  75    +5.15             0.687
HOME   # 77 Arizona St.                 85  70   +14.96             0.921
AWAY   # 15 Cincinnati                  79  80    -0.49             0.481
AWAY   #  8 Iowa St.                    76  79    -3.05             0.387
HOME   # 48 Kansas St.                  83  72   +10.96             0.850
AWAY   # 52 TCU                         83  79    +4.36             0.660
HOME   #  1 Houston                     75  76    -0.37             0.486
HOME   # 60 UCF                         84  72   +12.15             0.875
AWAY   # 26 Baylor                      80  79    +0.99             0.537
HOME   #  8 Iowa St.                    80  76    +3.95             0.646
AWAY   # 48 Kansas St.                  80  76    +3.96             0.646
HOME   # 74 Colorado                    85  71   +14.08             0.908
AWAY   # 66 Utah                        83  77    +5.99             0.714
AWAY   # 19 BYU                         80  80    +0.25             0.509
HOME   # 88 Oklahoma St.                90  74   +16.47             0.940
AWAY   # 74 Colorado                    81  74    +7.08             0.748
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                  79  74    +5.16             0.687
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     72  79    -7.37             0.243
HOME   #  9 Arizona                     86  81    +4.36             0.660

Here is North Carolina's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #275 Elon                        90  76   +25.56   -11.56
AWAY   #  7 Kansas                      80  87    -6.99             0.254