predictions for Howard game

It's the first game of the season.  Nobody has a track record on which to
base predictions.  But that doesn't stop the more diehard fans from making
predictions, and the six that I have tabulated below are surprisingly
consistent.  They expect Kansas to win by 26.5 points, and the scatter in
those six predictions is less than a point!

We've seen two exhibition games.  A depleted Kansas roster got manhandled
by the Razorbacks and Coach Cal.  Whoever said that Kansas has so much
depth, they could field two Top 25 teams, sorry to disagree.  A slightly
less depleted Jayhawk squad had no trouble with Division II Washburn.

Kansas is expected to be at full strength for the season opener against
the Howard Bison, though I won't be at all surprised if Dickinson and
Moore play only sparingly.  Just enough to give them some reps, and
shake off whatever rust might have accumulated while recovering.  Moore
has been out of action for a lot longer than Dickinson.  I think the
goal for this game is to see how the various pieces fall into place,
which combinations seem to work best.  Will we see two bigs in the game
at the same time?  My guess is that it will be situational.

Status report:

Massey is on board for this season, though his initial ranking for Kansas
is a dismal #16.  One item worthy of note is that not only does he show
rankings for the strength of schedule played, which is the same for
everybody (and #4 for some peculiar reason), he also shows the strength
of future schedule, which for this time of the season would be an evaluation
of that team's schedule for the entire season.  Who is playing the toughest
schedule in all of Division I?  Your Kansas Jayhawks.  Baylor is #3 and is
opening the season at Gonzaga for the marquee matchup of the day.  Arizona
State is #4, Arizona is #5, Oklahoma State is #7, Iowa State is #13, West
Virginia is #15, Kansas State is #17, UCF is #19, Houston is #22, Colorado
is #23, Cincinnati is #27, TCU is tied for #34, Texas Tech is #36, BYU is
#45, and Utah is #47.  That's a testament to the difficulty of the Big 12
Conference; everybody's strength of schedule is in the Top 50, one-third
of which is from the Big 12.

Pomeroy is on board, obviously, since that is who I am now using for the
season projection.  Sagarin is still doing college football, but for some
reason, basketball has lost his attention.  Maybe he did rankings for
basketball only when he was being paid to do them (presumably by USA Today).

Greenfield is on board for game predictions, though his rosters are for last
season.

Dunkel is on board, and even has game predictions up more than 24 hours in
advance for a change.  However, for some peculiar reason, the Kansas game
is not listed.  Maybe he considers it to be too much of a mismatch to
attempt predicting a score or margin?

I get my Vegas predictions from Dunkel, so no Dunkel, no Vegas.

Dolphin is not yet on board.  I'm using his rankings from last season.

Real Time is not yet on board.  I'm using his rankings from last season.

Seven Overtimes has reset his web site for this season, but the rankings
are in alphbetical order, and the game predictions are all for 60-60 ties.

Davis has the Rock Chalk Challenge up and running (but with a banner that
says "2023-2024"), though I've not seen any DPPI rankings yet.

ESPN's BPI is on board with rankings, but not entirely with game predictions.
The probability of winning is listed, but the predicted margin is not.  Very
odd, as those go hand-in-hand.  Maybe the margins will appear sometime before
tomorrow's game.  The BPI also has a "Remaining Strength of Schedule" ranking,
which at this point of the season is an evaluation of that team's schedule.
Kansas only managed #4, but that's still the strongest schedule in the entire
Big 12.  The BPI's #1 schedule belongs to Alabama.

Whitlock is not on board.  I'm using his rankings from last season.

Colley is not on board.  I'm using his rankings from last season.

Donchess is on board.

Haslametrics is on board.  His season projection shows only two losses,
namely at Iowa State and at Houston.  But the Jayhawks are ranked behind
#1 Houston and #2 Arizona, both of which are conference foes.

IN CC Stats is on board.  I had to update my bookmark for the 2024-2025
season.

The NCAA NET is not on board.  I'm using the rankings from last season.

LRMC is not on board.  I'm using the rankings from last season.

The Massey composite is on board with thirteen rankings.  Kansas ranges
from #1 in Simmons, USA Today Coaches, and the Associated Press, all the
way down to #35 in Packard.  Houston is the composite #1.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
These stats are for last season, so take them with a grain of salt.
Maybe better than nothing, but not by much.

Offensive Stats      How     KU      Defensive Stats      How     KU
Points/Game         74.5    75.3     Opp Points/Game     75.1    70.3
Avg Score Margin    -0.7    +5.0     Opp Effective FG %  51.1    48.3
Assists/Game        13.6    18.7     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.0     7.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.0    35.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.8    25.4
Effective FG %      51.7    53.5     Blocks/Game          2.9     4.0
Off Rebound %       30.9    24.4     Steals/Game          5.9     7.1
FTA/FGA            0.421   0.325     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.7    14.8
Turnover %          18.3    14.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU             Gon
===================   =============   ============
performance             .               .      
inconsistency           .               .      
trend                   .   ±           .   ±     
mental toughness        .   ±           .   ±              
average total pts         .              .   

Common Opponents
================
There are obviously no common opponents for this season.  I'm keeping this item
here merely as a placeholder.

Players to Watch
================
Greenfield still has last season's rosters in place, complete with Charlie
McCarthy having played the most minutes for Kansas.  Maybe when he adds the
new rosters, that bug will finally be fixed.

most minutes       ?
most points        ?
most rebounds      ?
most assists       ?
most steals        ?
most blocks        ?
most turnovers     ?
most fouls         ?

                                                           0-0            0-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Howard
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                 +27.00   88   61       98       # 16   #  1    #304   #350
Pomeroy                +26.00   87   61       99.2     #  7   #       #217   #   
Greenfield             +25.50   89   63.5              #  4   #       #231   #   
Dunkel                                                 #              #   
Vegas (via Dunkel)                                                             
Dolphin Predictive                                     # 33   #       #283   #   
Real Time                                              # 27   #       #247   #   
Seven Overtimes                                        #      #       #      #   
DPPI                                                   #      #       #      #    
ESPN BPI                                      98.6     #  4   #  4    #229   #348
Whitlock                                               # 22   #       #269   #   
Colley Matrix                                          # 24   #       #274   #   
Donchess               +28.00   88   60       99.0     #  3   #       #277   #   
Haslametrics           +26.27   90   64                #  4           #226
INCCStats              +26.00   88   62       99.0     #  2           #249
common opponents                 
NCAA NET                                               # 19           #273
LRMC                                                   # 25   #       #249   #   
Massey composite                                       # 11           #258
Pomeroy offense                                        #  6           #190
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           #250
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 93           #123
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +26.46   88.3 61.9     98.8
scatter                  0.90    1.0  1.6      0.5

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is currently 22-9,
with a conference record of 13-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #214 Howard                      87  61   +25.35             0.992
HOME   # 14 North Carolina              78  73    +5.20             0.688
NEUT   # 35 Michigan St.                73  67    +5.44             0.696
HOME   #173 Oakland                     83  61   +22.25             0.982
HOME   #154 UNC Wilmington              82  61   +21.04             0.977
NEUT   #  2 Duke                        71  73    -1.62             0.439
HOME   #165 Furman                      84  62   +22.30             0.982
AWAY   # 12 Creighton                   73  75    -2.53             0.405
AWAY   # 53 Missouri                    75  71    +3.94             0.645
HOME   # 52 N.C. State                  79  68   +11.03             0.851
HOME   #243 Brown                       87  60   +26.48             0.994
HOME   # 87 West Virginia               80  66   +14.59             0.916
AWAY   # 66 UCF                         75  70    +5.59             0.701
HOME   # 71 Arizona St.                 80  66   +13.51             0.899
AWAY   # 17 Cincinnati                  72  73    -0.35             0.487
AWAY   #  7 Iowa St.                    69  73    -3.50             0.370
HOME   # 49 Kansas St.                  76  66   +10.60             0.842
AWAY   # 58 TCU                         76  71    +4.86             0.677
HOME   #  1 Houston                     69  69    -0.16             0.494
HOME   # 66 UCF                         79  66   +12.59             0.883
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                      72  74    -2.62             0.402
HOME   #  7 Iowa St.                    73  69    +3.50             0.630
AWAY   # 49 Kansas St.                  73  69    +3.60             0.633
HOME   # 80 Colorado                    80  65   +14.15             0.909
AWAY   # 82 Utah                        77  69    +7.43             0.759
AWAY   # 21 BYU                         74  74    +0.43             0.516
HOME   # 89 Oklahoma St.                82  66   +15.32             0.926
AWAY   # 80 Colorado                    76  69    +7.15             0.750
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                  72  67    +5.24             0.690
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     65  73    -7.16             0.249
HOME   #  8 Arizona                     79  75    +4.05             0.649

Here is Howard's season to date (admittedly not terribly useful):

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #  7 Kansas