initial conference season projection

I normally wait until just before conference play begins to post a conference projection,
but because of the new 16-team 20-game format and unbalanced schedules, it is possible
that two teams of equal strength could wind up with different projected conference records.
And in fact, if you look at Pomeroy's starting ratings, #6 Kansas and #7 Iowa State have
identical +24.42 Net Ratings, but their schedules are quite different.  As it turns out,
Iowa State's schedule is the easier of the two by a small margin.  Here's the full Big 12
preseason conference projection.  If you add all those projected wins, they total 159.999
rather than 160, due to rounding.  The 10-team 18-game format of the old Big 12 featured
only 90 games, so we're seeing a 78 percent increase in conference action this season
compared to just a couple seasons ago.  By the time conference play begins in late
December, the teams will be connected and the computer ratings a lot more meaningful
than they are now, so I'll do a "real" pre-conference-season projection around Christmas.

How many Big 12 teams will go dancing in March?  Pomeroy's starting ratings suggest
that only 8 teams will do so, given that there are only 30-some at-large invitations to the
Big Dance, so teams will need to rank in the Top 30 or so to have a realistic chance of
playing in March Madness.  If the NCAA simply took the Top 68 teams, ignoring the
winners of post-season conference tournaments, then 11 Big 12 teams would qualify.
Some pundits have suggested that the SEC might get more teams into the tournament
than the Big 12, but there are only 7 SEC teams in Pomeroy's Top 30, but with Mississippi
State ranked #32, they're on the bubble, so it could be 8, identical to the Big 12.  Oklahoma
at #40 would have a slightly better chance of making the tournament than #49 Kansas State.

The SEC spans #3 Auburn to #96 Vanderbilt, while the Big 12 spans #1 Houston to
#89 Oklahoma State, so it looks like the Big 12 will be the premier basketball conference
once again, but the SEC is poised to make some noise.

                      Pres 
                      Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins 
----  -------------- ------
#  1  Houston        15.537
#  7  Iowa State     13.583
#  6  Kansas         13.383
#  8  Arizona        12.955
# 11  Baylor         12.624
# 15  Texas Tech     12.269
# 17  Cincinnati     11.792
# 21  BYU            11.315
# 49  Kansas State    8.704
# 58  TCU             8.342
# 66  UCF             7.626
# 71  Arizona State   6.777
# 82  Utah            6.557
# 80  Colorado        6.437
# 87  West Virginia   6.157
# 89  Oklahoma State  5.941