predictions for Gonzaga game

From here on out, we're likely to be facing teams ranked higher than
Kansas.  Of course, upsets in other parts of the bracket are always
possible.  Yes, I'd rather face Utah State in the Sweet Sixteen, Oregon
in the Elite Eight, Oakland in the Final Four, and Yale (again) in
the Championship game, but the odds of that happening are probably
less than beating Purdue, Tennessee, and Houston.

Gonzaga has played double-digits above expectation in three of their
last five games, and above expectation in four of those games.  Now,
you can interpret that in two ways.  One, you could say that Gonzaga
is on a positive trend, which would be bad news for Kansas.  But on
the other hand, you could also say that the law of averages is due
to kick in sooner or later, and Gonzaga is due to play a game below
expectation, which would be better news for Kansas.  Meanwhile, the
Jayhawks have played three consecutive below-expectation games and
five out of the last six.  Again, take your pick between a negative
trend (bad news) or being due for an above-expectation game (good news).

As you might expect for a 4/5 seed matchup, the various predictions
are all very close, so the game could go either way.  Vegas knows
that McCullar is out, so one might take their 4.5 point margin in
favor of Gonzaga with more weight than the various computer rankings
that know nothing about injuries.  Dunkel also knows about the injury,
which probably explains the 9 point margin prediction in favor of
Gonzaga, the most pessimistic of the lot.  There are some predictions
that favor Kansas.  Seven Overtimes has the Jayhawks by 1 point, and
ditto for Colley.  The common opponent comparison is the most optimistic,
Kansas being favored by 4 points, but that is based on only three games,
all early in the season (for Kansas, though Gonzaga played Kentucky
during their conference season) when McCullar was available.  The
average of 16 predictions favors Gonzaga by just 2.2 points, with a
scatter of 3.0 points, so it's basically a toss-up game, one that
could go down to the wire.

There are various game analyses on YouTube, in which strengths and
weaknesses are compared.  I won't try to summarize all those here.
It's a relatively early tip, so I'll post this now and get a good
night of sleep before the game.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      Gon     KU      Defensive Stats      Gon     KU
Points/Game         83.7    75.6     Opp Points/Game     69.2    69.7
Avg Score Margin   +14.5    +5.8     Opp Effective FG %  46.9    47.7
Assists/Game        16.5    18.7     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.3     7.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.4    35.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.8    25.7
Effective FG %      56.8    53.8     Blocks/Game          3.8     4.0
Off Rebound %       31.9    24.1     Steals/Game          6.8     7.2
FTA/FGA            0.314   0.332     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.8    14.9
Turnover %          12.2    14.9   

My Stats Comparison        KU             Gon
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.92           +0.94    
inconsistency         12.73            9.80    
trend                 -0.34 ± 0.24    +0.21 ± 0.19
mental toughness      -0.18 ± 0.24     0.00 ± 0.15         
average total pts      145.38         152.94

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Yale, UConn, and Kentucky:

KU  +15 Yale at home (+12 neutral court)
Gon +15 Yale at home (+12 neutral court)
KU    0 Gon  neutral (  0 neutral court)

KU   +4 Conn at home ( +1 neutral court)
Gon -13 Conn neutral (-13 neutral court)
KU  +14 Gon  neutral (+14 neutral court)

KU   +5 Kent neutral ( +5 neutral court)
Gon  +4 Kent on road ( +7 neutral court)
KU   -2 Gon  neutral ( -2 neutral court)

One comparison favors Kansas, one comparison favors Gonzaga, and one is a wash.
The average is 4 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Ryan Nembhard (guard)
most points        Graham Ike (forward)
most rebounds      Anton Watson (forward)
most assists       Ryan Nembhard (guard)
most steals        Anton Watson (forward)
most blocks        Braden Huff (forward)
most turnovers     Ryan Nembhard (guard)
most fouls         Graham Ike (forward)

Reserve guard Steele Venters has been out for the season with a knee injury.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          23-10          26-7
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Gonzaga
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -3.00   74   77       41       # 13   #  6    # 11   # 85
Pomeroy                 -2.60   75   78       40.3     # 23   #  3    # 13   #101
Greenfield              -4.50   73.5 78                # 18   # 10    # 15   # 55
Dunkel                  -9.00   73   82                # 49           # 10
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -4.50   74   78                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -1.69   75   77       44.2     # 28   #  9    # 17   # 66
Real Time               -1.00   70   71       48.0     # 31   #  9    # 28   #124
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   75   74       52       #  9   # 14    # 13   #103
DPPI                    -2.50   74   76       43.2     # 16   #  6    # 17   #117 
ESPN BPI                -2.40                 40.9     # 20   #  6    # 15   # 85
Whitlock                -0.97                          # 22   # 12    # 16   #119
Colley Matrix           +0.96                          # 22   #  7    # 30   #112
Donchess                -0.50   77   77       48.9     # 19   #  6    # 14   #102
Haslametrics            -5.49   73   78                # 27           #  8
INCCStats               -3.00   76   79       40       # 23           # 14
common opponents        +4.00
NCAA NET                                               # 19           # 17
LRMC                                                   # 25   # 11    # 20   #114
Massey composite                                       # 17           # 15
Pomeroy offense                                        # 61           #  8
Pomeroy defense                                        # 13           # 42
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 84           # 79
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -2.20   74.1 77.1     44.3
scatter                  2.99    1.8  2.7      4.4

Here is Kansas' season:
                                                                             CUMU.
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----    -----
HOME   #255 North Carolina Central      99  56   +20.81   +22.19
HOME   #337 Manhattan                   99  61   +28.45    +9.55
NEUT   # 22 Kentucky                    89  84    -0.15    +5.15
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 12 Marquette                   59  73    -2.59   -11.41
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   69  60    -5.19   +14.19
HOME   #321 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +25.50   -17.50
HOME   #  1 Connecticut                 69  65    -5.30    +9.30
HOME   #209 UMKC                        88  69   +18.85    +0.15
HOME   #152 Missouri                    73  64   +15.26    -6.26
AWAY   # 92 Indiana                     75  71    +3.52    +0.48
HOME   # 79 Yale                        75  60    +9.08    +5.92
NEUT   #155 Wichita St.                 86  67   +12.14    +6.86
HOME   # 42 TCU                         83  81    +5.34    -3.34
AWAY   # 65 UCF                         60  65    +1.30    -6.30
HOME   # 45 Oklahoma                    78  66    +5.54    +6.46
AWAY   #116 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +5.90   +18.10
AWAY   #144 West Virginia               85  91    +8.25   -14.25
HOME   # 43 Cincinnati                  74  69    +5.34    -0.34
AWAY   #  6 Iowa St.                    75  79    -8.83    +4.83
HOME   #116 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +12.90   +16.10
HOME   #  2 Houston                     78  65    -4.99   +17.99
AWAY   # 69 Kansas St.                  70  75    +1.44    -6.44
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      64  61    +1.04    +1.96
AWAY   # 32 Texas Tech                  50  79    -2.55   -26.45
AWAY   # 45 Oklahoma                    67  57    -1.46   +11.46
HOME   # 24 Texas                       86  67    +3.57   +15.43
HOME   # 17 BYU                         68  76    +2.59   -10.59
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      74  82    -5.96    -2.04
HOME   # 69 Kansas St.                  90  68    +8.44   +13.56
AWAY   #  2 Houston                     46  76   -11.99   -18.01
NEUT   # 43 Cincinnati                  52  75    +1.84   -24.84
NEUT   # 83 Samford                     93  89    +6.49    -2.49
NEUT   # 13 Gonzaga                     75  78    -2.60             0.403    0.403
NEUT   #  3 Purdue                      71  78    -7.24             0.247    0.100
NEUT   #  7 Tennessee                   70  75    -5.19             0.312    0.031
NEUT   #  2 Houston                     61  70    -8.49             0.211    0.007
NEUT   #  1 Connecticut                 67  76    -8.80             0.203    0.001

Here is Gonzaga's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 79 Yale                        86  71   +11.52    +3.48
NAIA        Eastern Oregon             123  57
NEUT   #  3 Purdue                      63  73    -4.72    -5.28
NEUT   # 86 Syracuse                    76  57    +9.19    +9.81
NEUT   # 96 UCLA                        69  65    +9.29    -5.29
HOME   #243 Cal St. Bakersfield         81  65   +22.15    -6.15
NEUT   # 87 USC                         89  76    +8.86    +4.14
HOME   #333 Arkansas Pine Bluff        111  71   +32.15    +7.85
AWAY   # 59 Washington                  73  78    +3.36    -8.36
HOME   #362 Mississippi Valley St.      78  40   +38.58    -0.58
NEUT   #  1 Connecticut                 63  76    -6.38    -6.62
HOME   #308 Jackson St.                100  76   +27.34    -3.34
HOME   # 19 San Diego St.               74  84    +5.44   -15.44
HOME   #223 Pepperdine                  86  60   +22.04    +3.96
HOME   #257 San Diego                  101  74   +24.65    +2.35
AWAY   #107 Santa Clara                 76  77    +8.15    -9.15
AWAY   #223 Pepperdine                  86  61   +15.04    +9.96
AWAY   #257 San Diego                  105  63   +17.65   +24.35
HOME   # 64 San Francisco               77  72   +10.68    -5.68
AWAY   #358 Pacific                     82  73   +27.94   -18.94
HOME   #189 Loyola Marymount            92  58   +19.79   +14.21
HOME   # 20 Saint Mary's                62  64    +5.41    -7.41
HOME   #298 Portland                    96  64   +26.21    +5.79
AWAY   # 22 Kentucky                    89  85    -0.92    +4.92
AWAY   #189 Loyola Marymount            91  74   +12.79    +4.21
HOME   #358 Pacific                    102  76   +34.94    -8.94
AWAY   #298 Portland                    86  65   +19.21    +1.79
HOME   #107 Santa Clara                 94  81   +15.15    -2.15
AWAY   # 64 San Francisco               86  68    +3.68   +14.32
AWAY   # 20 Saint Mary's                70  57    -1.59   +14.59
NEUT   # 64 San Francisco               89  77    +7.18    +4.82
NEUT   # 20 Saint Mary's                60  69    +1.91   -10.91
NEUT   # 67 McNeese St.                 86  65    +7.09   +13.91
NEUT   # 23 Kansas                      78  75    +2.60             0.597