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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 summary
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8 months 1 week ago #32431
by asteroid
Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd 10
Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
# 1 Houston 14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223 13.167
# 12 Iowa State 10.283 9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155 11.780
# 14 Baylor 10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535 9.608 10.046 10.482 10.774
# 25 Texas Tech 8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376 10.130
# 16 BYU 13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066 10.308
# 18 Kansas 11.129 11.165 9.953 10.509 11.149 9.975 10.129 9.899 10.141 11.123 10.347
# 21 Texas 8.957 7.615 8.460 7.481 6.422 7.099 8.313 8.013 7.835 8.802 8.185
# 32 TCU 8.897 8.838 9.434 10.428 10.101 9.485 9.699 10.539 10.935 9.956 9.970
# 40 Oklahoma 9.775 10.625 10.049 9.582 9.673 10.451 9.153 8.438 9.338 8.485 9.244
# 68 Kansas State 6.225 7.348 8.108 7.872 8.624 8.740 8.583 8.349 7.542 6.881 7.698
# 42 Cincinnati 8.497 9.970 9.053 8.992 9.415 8.605 8.372 8.680 7.848 8.699 8.651
# 61 UCF 5.855 4.785 5.635 5.777 6.960 6.883 7.267 6.935 6.465 7.319 7.299
#107 Oklahoma State 4.861 4.635 4.385 3.978 3.409 3.237 2.968 3.292 3.086 3.656 3.667
#143 West Virginia 3.680 3.467 2.787 3.626 3.496 4.655 4.376 4.040 4.923 4.778 4.780
Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16 Rd 17 Rd 18
Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf. Pred.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd NextGame Score
---- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ----- -------- -----
# 1 Houston 13.469 13.495 13.683 13.903 14.285 14.378 14.653 14.835 15 3 bye
# 12 Iowa State 12.143 12.688 13.007 12.832 12.034 13.025 13.358 13.681 13 5 bye
# 14 Baylor 10.471 10.937 11.153 10.722 10.304 10.900 11.236 11.494 11 7 bye
# 25 Texas Tech 10.375 10.873 10.868 11.175 10.526 9.814 10.121 10.506 11 7 bye
# 16 BYU 10.396 10.497 9.493 9.913 9.177 9.904 10.211 9.909 10 8 CF/OS Wed
# 18 Kansas 10.683 9.932 10.644 10.628 11.018 10.314 9.970 10.165 10 8 UC/WV Wed
# 21 Texas 8.413 8.431 8.215 8.417 8.065 8.778 8.935 8.665 9 9 KSU Wed 74-69
# 32 TCU 9.722 9.777 10.308 10.029 10.423 9.794 9.493 9.757 9 9 OU Wed 76-75
# 40 Oklahoma 9.193 8.802 8.104 8.121 8.553 8.266 8.003 8.335 8 10 TCU Wed 75-76
# 68 Kansas State 7.564 7.630 7.143 6.909 7.633 7.781 7.518 7.319 8 10 UT Wed 69-74
# 42 Cincinnati 8.364 7.830 8.348 7.387 6.988 6.941 7.203 6.874 7 11 WVU Tue 77-67
# 61 UCF 7.063 6.950 6.351 5.573 6.218 6.772 6.437 6.243 7 11 OSU Tue 79-77
#107 Oklahoma State 3.625 3.574 4.559 5.443 5.197 4.647 4.472 4.091 4 14 UCF Tue 77-79
#143 West Virginia 4.520 4.312 4.124 4.824 4.821 4.688 4.390 4.126 4 14 UC Tue 67-77
Big XII Team Wins relative to pre-season projection
-------------- --------------------------------------
Iowa State +2.717
Texas Tech +2.172
Kansas State +1.775
UCF +1.145
West Virginia +0.320
Houston +0.247
TCU +0.103
Baylor +0.070
Texas +0.043
Oklahoma State -0.861
Kansas -1.129
Cincinnati -1.497
Oklahoma -1.775
BYU -3.331
Surprise, but Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 19, and it wasn't even close.
Massey pulled up the rear. Dolphin takes the season crown, with Dunkel's final round win being
unable to get him out of the season cellar. Overall, the prediction errors averaged about 7 points,
somewhat better than in previous seasons.
Error
--4-----------------3------------1-----3-----1-----2-----2-----3-
Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real
cumulative 906.0 879.8 874.5 1085.6 870.0 862.3 911.4 880.6 887.2 941.0 984.0
per game (total of 126) 7.2 7.0 6.9 8.6 6.9 6.8 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.5 7.8
Only one road win was projected for Round 19, but it did not happen; Kansas State prevailed
at home. Nor did the road win we wanted happen. But UCF picked up a surprise road win in
Fort Worth, so we finished the conference season with exactly one road win in every three
games.
Road wins (42 out of 126) Home losses RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
6 Houston BYU UT UC BU OU UCF 0 Houston +6 UH
4 Baylor OSU UCF WVU TCU 0 Iowa State +4 ISU
4 Iowa State TCU UT UC UCF 1 Kansas BYU +2 BU
4 TCU OSU BU KSU WVU 2 Baylor TCU UH +2 TTU
4 Texas UC OU TCU TTU 2 BYU UC UH +1 BYU
4 Texas Tech UT OU WVU OSU 2 Kansas State OU TCU +1 KU
3 BYU UCF WVU KU 2 Texas Tech UC TTU 0 TCU
3 Cincinnati BYU TTU UCF 4 Oklahoma UT TTU KU UH 0 UT
3 Oklahoma UC KSU OSU 4 TCU ISU UT BU UCF -1 KSU
3 UCF UT OSU TCU 4 Texas TTU UCF UH ISU -1 OU
2 Kansas OSU OU 5 Cincinnati UT OU UH ISU OSU -2 UC
1 Kansas State WVU 5 UCF BYU BU UC ISU UH -2 UCF
1 Oklahoma State UC 5 West Virginia KSU BYU BU TTU TCU -5 OSU
0 West Virginia 6 Oklahoma State BU KU TCU OU UCF TTU -5 WVU
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- -----------------------------
BYU +2.93 TCU 7.20 7.11
Iowa State +2.72 Oklahoma State 8.23 8.58
Houston +2.47 Houston 8.47 9.69
Baylor +1.98 West Virginia 9.49 9.77
Cincinnati +1.34 Baylor 10.03 9.85
TCU +1.05 Texas 10.21 10.47
UCF +1.01 Oklahoma 10.21 10.63
Oklahoma +0.98 Cincinnati 10.35 10.88
Kansas +0.91 Texas Tech 10.61 10.98
Texas Tech +0.24 BYU 11.57 11.45
Texas +0.20 Iowa State 10.72 11.67
Kansas State +0.14 Kansas State 11.16 11.76
Oklahoma State -0.12 UCF 11.11 12.05
West Virginia -1.17 Kansas 12.18 12.62
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Texas +0.18 +/- 0.21 Kansas State +0.11 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech +0.17 +/- 0.21 West Virginia -0.05 +/- 0.22
UCF +0.13 +/- 0.24 Cincinnati -0.11 +/- 0.19
Kansas State +0.11 +/- 0.23 TCU -0.11 +/- 0.11
West Virginia +0.02 +/- 0.19 Texas Tech -0.11 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State +0.01 +/- 0.17 Oklahoma -0.12 +/- 0.16
TCU -0.13 +/- 0.15 Texas -0.12 +/- 0.16
Cincinnati -0.14 +/- 0.21 Oklahoma State -0.13 +/- 0.14
Kansas -0.21 +/- 0.26 UCF -0.13 +/- 0.20
Houston -0.25 +/- 0.17 Kansas -0.16 +/- 0.23
Baylor -0.27 +/- 0.21 Iowa State -0.41 +/- 0.15
Iowa State -0.40 +/- 0.21 BYU -0.54 +/- 0.17
Oklahoma -0.41 +/- 0.19 Houston -0.55 +/- 0.15
BYU -0.59 +/- 0.21 Baylor -0.64 +/- 0.15
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
BYU 81.71 Houston 57.30 Baylor 152.67 Houston +16.50
Baylor 80.66 Iowa State 62.52 TCU 152.00 Iowa State +12.77
TCU 80.07 UCF 67.47 BYU 151.61 BYU +11.81
Texas 76.16 Cincinnati 68.29 Texas 146.23 Baylor +8.65
Texas Tech 75.54 Oklahoma 69.02 West Virginia 145.68 TCU +8.15
Kansas 75.42 Kansas 69.35 Texas Tech 144.94 Texas Tech +6.15
Iowa State 75.29 Texas Tech 69.40 Kansas 144.77 Texas +6.10
Oklahoma 75.04 BYU 69.90 Oklahoma 144.06 Kansas +6.07
Cincinnati 74.35 Texas 70.06 Oklahoma State 143.81 Cincinnati +6.06
Houston 73.80 Kansas State 70.59 Cincinnati 142.65 Oklahoma +6.02
Kansas State 71.77 TCU 71.93 Kansas State 142.35 UCF +3.37
UCF 70.83 Baylor 72.01 UCF 138.30 Kansas State +1.18
Oklahoma State 70.77 Oklahoma State 73.03 Iowa State 137.81 Oklahoma State -2.26
West Virginia 68.76 West Virginia 76.92 Houston 131.10 West Virginia -8.16
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas +13.65 ( 2)
Baylor +13.48 ( 3)
West Virginia +12.19 ( 10)
Kansas State +10.73 ( 22)
Houston +10.53 ( 24)
Texas +10.31 ( 26)
Oklahoma +10.11 ( 31)
Oklahoma State +9.63 ( 41)
Texas Tech +9.49 ( 43)
UCF +9.38 ( 46)
Iowa State +9.03 ( 59)
BYU +8.89 ( 60)
Cincinnati +8.79 ( 65)
TCU +8.77 ( 67)
The following user(s) said Thank You: Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1
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