predictions for Houston game

Senior Night.  Again.  Just not ours.  Does that make it even harder to
win on the road?

According to Haslametrics, Kansas ranks 343rd among 362 Division I teams
in away-from-home metric.  Guess what?  This game is away from home.

On the other hand, Houston has the conference championship clinched.
Maybe they'll let their foot off the gas.  But suppose they want sole
possession of the crown.  That could give them some incentive, depending
on the outcome of the Iowa State at Kansas State game.  That game tips
off two hours before ours does, so the outcome may not be known as of
our tip-off, though the handwriting may be on the wall.  The Cyclones
are projected to win.  If they do, then Houston would be forced to win
to avoid sharing the crown.  We'll know by around the first or second
media timeout of our game.

Remember, we beat Houston in the Phog by 13.  A swap of venue typically
results in a 6 point swing, so we could still win by 7.  But all the
prognosticators are expecting Kansas to lose.  Massey is the most
optimistic, expecting the loss to be by only 6 points.  Dunkel is the
most pessimistic, expecting a 15.5 point loss.  The BPI is almost as
bad at 14.5 points, and RealTime is right there at 14 points.  The
average is 9.9 points in favor of Houston.

Both teams are dinged up at this point in the season.  Houston has
lost some players that were on the court a fair number of minutes,
but their top scorers are all still available.  Whether Kansas will
have its top scorer is unclear.  We can hope that the extra minutes
the Kansas bench got with McCullar out has helped them.  Timberlake
has shown flashes of brilliance, but he has yet to show consistency.
Some people think that Furphy has hit the freshman wall.  Can't have
the improvements in the bench be offset by starters regressing.

Both teams have negative trend and mental toughness ratings, but
Houston's are statistically significant, while Kansas' are not.
But taken at face value, the effect is less than a point.

We still have a shot at a double bye in the conference tournament,
though we need help from Baylor.  But Kansas has to win.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      UH      KU      Defensive Stats      UH      KU
Points/Game         74.1    76.8     Opp Points/Game     57.3    68.8
Avg Score Margin   +16.9    +8.0     Opp Effective FG %  44.8    47.5
Assists/Game        13.0    19.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     12.8     7.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.9    35.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.2    25.4
Effective FG %      50.0    54.5     Blocks/Game          4.7     3.9
Off Rebound %       37.8    24.7     Steals/Game         10.2     7.4
FTA/FGA            0.312   0.331     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.0    14.9
Turnover %          10.9    14.3   

My Stats Comparison        KU             UH
===================   =============   ============
performance           +1.02           +2.65    
inconsistency         11.82            8.09    
trend                 -0.09 ± 0.27    -0.39 ± 0.16
mental toughness      -0.04 ± 0.24    -0.59 ± 0.13         
average total pts      145.55         131.40

Common Opponents
================
There are twelve common opponents, all in conference, four of which Houston has played
twice (Iowa State, UCF, Texas, Cincinnati), and four of which Kansas has played twice
(Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Oklahoma), plus the head-to-head in Lawrence,
giving us twenty one scores to compare:

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
UH  +34 WVU at home (+31 neutral court)
KU  -37 UH  on road (-34 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)     KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
UH   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)     UH   +8 ISU at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   -3 UH  on road (  0 neutral court)     KU   -9 UH  on road ( -6 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
UH   -1 TCU on road ( +2 neutral court)
KU   -6 UH  on road ( -3 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-26 neutral court)
UH  +23 TTU at home (+20 neutral court)
KU  -49 UH  on road (-46 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
UH  +15 UCF at home (+12 neutral court)     UH   +8 UCF on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  -17 UH  on road (-14 neutral court)     KU  -16 UH  on road (-13 neutral court)

KU   -8 BYU at home (-11 neutral court)
UH   +7 BYU on road (+10 neutral court)
KU  -24 UH  on road (-21 neutral court)

KU  +22 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)     KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
UH  +22 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)     UH  +22 KSU at home (+19 neutral court)
KU   -3 UH  on road (  0 neutral court)     KU  -24 UH  on road (-21 neutral court)

KU  +19 UT  at home (+16 neutral court)     KU  +19 UT  at home (+16 neutral court)
UH   +4 UT  on road ( +7 neutral court)     UH  +21 UT  at home (+18 neutral court)
KU   +6 UH  on road ( +9 neutral court)     KU   -5 UH  on road ( -2 neutral court)

KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)     KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)
UH  +16 OSU at home (+13 neutral court)     UH  +16 OSU at home (+13 neutral court)
KU  +10 UH  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU  +11 UH  on road (+14 neutral court)

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)     KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
UH   +5 UC  on road ( +8 neutral court)     UH   +8 UC  at home ( +5 neutral court)
KU   -9 UH  on road ( -6 neutral court)     KU   -6 UH  on road ( -3 neutral court)

KU   -8 BU  on road ( -5 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
UH   +6 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)     UH   +6 BU  on road ( +9 neutral court)
KU  -17 UH  on road (-14 neutral court)     KU  -12 UH  on road ( -9 neutral court)

KU  +10 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
UH   +2 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)     UH   +2 OU  on road ( +5 neutral court)
KU   +5 UH  on road ( +8 neutral court)     KU   +1 UH  on road ( +4 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)
KU   +7 UH  on road (+10 neutral court)

The average is 9.38 points in favor of Houston, with a scatter of 15.27 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       LJ Cryer (guard)
most points        LJ Cryer (guard)
most rebounds      J'Wan Roberts (forward)
most assists       Jamal Shead (guard)
most steals        Jamal Shead (guard)
most blocks        Ja'Vier Francis (forward)
most turnovers     Jamal Shead (guard)
most fouls         Joseph Tugler (forward)

Their most prolific fouler, Joseph Tugler, is out with a broken right foot.
Reserve guard Ramon Walker Jr. is out with a knee injury; he's tenth on the
team in minutes per game played.  Reserve guard Terrance Arceneaux is out
with a torn Achilles; he's sixth on the team in minutes per game played.
None of these players area mong the more prolific scorers.  Cryer, Shead,
and Sharp are the ones who contribute the most scoring.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          22-8           27-3
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Houston
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -6.00   64   70       27       #  9   #  6    #  2   # 47
Pomeroy                -10.21   63   73       16.7     # 17   #  5    #  1   # 30
Greenfield              -8.00   64.5 72.5              # 16   #  8    #  3   #  3
Dunkel                 -15.50   65   80                # 15           #  2
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -7.50   65   73                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -9.44   61   71       19.2     # 16   #  5    #  1   #  1
Real Time              -14.00   64   78       22.7     # 20   #  6    #  2   # 44
Seven Overtimes         -8.00   65   73       20       #  9   #  8    #  2   # 51
DPPI                   -11.50   63   75       19.4     # 13   #  5    #  1   # 18 
ESPN BPI               -14.50                  8.6     # 15   #  5    #  1   # 19
Whitlock                -9.12                          # 15   # 14    #  3   # 25
Colley Matrix           -9.07                          # 14   # 10    #  2   # 34
Donchess                -8.90   64   73       20.5     # 13   #  5    #  2   # 33
Haslametrics            -9.34   63   72                # 17           #  1
INCCStats               -8.00   64   72       22       # 16           #  4
common opponents        -9.38
NCAA NET                                               # 15           #  1
LRMC                                                   # 17   # 14    #  3   # 31
Massey composite                                       # 15           #  1
Pomeroy offense                                        # 38           # 12
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           #  1
Pomeroy tempo                                          # 96           #349
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -9.90   63.8 73.5     19.6
scatter                  2.67    1.2  2.9      5.0

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #245 North Carolina Central      99  56   +21.79   +21.21
HOME   #338 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.64    +7.36
NEUT   # 18 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.81    +4.19
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 14 Marquette                   59  73    -0.92   -13.08
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   69  60    -4.66   +13.66
HOME   #320 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +27.23   -19.23
HOME   #  2 Connecticut                 69  65    -2.71    +6.71
HOME   #209 UMKC                        88  69   +20.52    -1.52
HOME   #150 Missouri                    73  64   +16.88    -7.88
AWAY   # 92 Indiana                     75  71    +5.13    -1.13
HOME   # 80 Yale                        75  60   +10.97    +4.03
NEUT   #158 Wichita St.                 86  67   +14.29    +4.71
HOME   # 31 TCU                         83  81    +6.05    -4.05
AWAY   # 66 UCF                         60  65    +2.83    -7.83
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                    78  66    +6.56    +5.44
AWAY   #106 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +6.93   +17.07
AWAY   #136 West Virginia               85  91    +9.39   -15.39
HOME   # 45 Cincinnati                  74  69    +7.54    -2.54
AWAY   # 11 Iowa St.                    75  79    -5.29    +1.29
HOME   #106 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +13.93   +15.07
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -3.21   +16.21
AWAY   # 69 Kansas St.                  70  75    +3.34    -8.34
HOME   # 13 Baylor                      64  61    +2.30    +0.70
AWAY   # 28 Texas Tech                  50  79    -1.28   -27.72
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                    67  57    -0.44   +10.44
HOME   # 25 Texas                       86  67    +5.55   +13.45
HOME   # 16 BYU                         68  76    +3.50   -11.50
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                      74  82    -4.70    -3.30
HOME   # 69 Kansas St.                  90  68   +10.34   +11.66
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     63  73   -10.21             0.167

Here is Houston's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #296 Louisiana Monroe            84  31   +29.94   +23.06
HOME   #166 Texas A&M Corpus Chris      82  50   +24.30    +7.70
HOME   #214 Stetson                     79  48   +25.52    +5.48
NEUT   #157 Towson                      65  49   +17.86    -1.86
NEUT   # 49 Utah                        76  66   +11.21    -1.21
NEUT   # 30 Dayton                      69  55    +8.31    +5.69
HOME   #155 Montana                     79  44   +22.29   +12.71
AWAY   # 54 Xavier                      66  60    +8.40    -2.40
HOME   #215 Rice                        75  39   +25.61   +10.39
HOME   #301 Jackson St.                 89  55   +30.89    +3.11
NEUT   # 52 Texas A&M                   70  66   +10.76    -6.76
HOME   #192 Texas St.                   72  37   +24.70   +10.30
HOME   #202 Penn                        81  42   +24.88   +14.12
HOME   #136 West Virginia               89  55   +22.05   +11.95
AWAY   # 11 Iowa St.                    53  57    +1.43    -5.43
AWAY   # 31 TCU                         67  68    +5.64    -6.64
HOME   # 28 Texas Tech                  77  54   +11.98   +11.02
HOME   # 66 UCF                         57  42   +16.00    -1.00
AWAY   # 16 BYU                         75  68    +3.22    +3.78
HOME   # 69 Kansas St.                  74  52   +16.33    +5.67
AWAY   # 25 Texas                       76  72    +4.90    -0.90
AWAY   # 17 Kansas                      65  78    +3.21   -16.21
HOME   #106 Oklahoma St.                79  63   +19.61    -3.61
AWAY   # 45 Cincinnati                  67  62    +6.77    -1.77
HOME   # 25 Texas                       82  61   +11.90    +9.10
HOME   # 11 Iowa St.                    73  65    +8.43    -0.43
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                      82  76    +1.75    +4.25
HOME   # 45 Cincinnati                  67  59   +13.77    -5.77
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                    87  85    +5.80    -3.80
AWAY   # 66 UCF                         67  59    +9.00    -1.00
HOME   # 17 Kansas                      73  63   +10.21             0.833