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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
B12T seeding scenarios
8 months 2 weeks ago - 8 months 2 weeks ago #32409
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Being done with both our and my mother-in-law's income taxes, and with the rainy day in LFK keeping me indoors, I decided to procrastinate on all the other things clamoring for my time (too numerous to mention/bore you with here, I assure you 
) and explore today some "what ifs?" as relates to seeding for the B12 Men's hoops tournament.
Below are 7 possible scenarios (the last one being "Chalk" results) to contemplate.
I started the table with the current W-L record for each program, noted whether the season final game was a Home or Away game for each program, and then adjusted those current records for 7 possible W-L scenarios this Saturday.
Yes there are more possible. But I doubt anyone will be interested beyond those presented.
My goal was to answer most of "the usual suspects" "What if" queries, such as
• What is KU's highest possible seed? (Answer: 4, earning a 2 day bye in the expanded B12T)
• KU's lowest possible seed? (Answer: 6, and 4 Ws needed to win it all)
• Can KSU escape playing on Tuesday, Day 1 of the expanded B12T and having to win 5 in a row to win the B12T?
(Answer: If KSU can beat ISU in Manhattan or Cincinnati loses at home to WVU, KSU is the 10 seed. If I was a betting man I'd bet on Cincinnati getting the 1 day bye as the 10 seed)
And so on...
Details for each scenario are very briefly summarized below the table.
Seeding was done using the B12T tiebreaking procedures detailed at the end of the post (sure hope I did it right!
)
As KU fans, we would naturally favor Scenario 1.
SCENARIO 1 Winners: KU at HOU, ISU at KSU, BU at TT, BYU v OKS, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 2 Winners: KU at HOU, ISU at KSU, TT v BU, BYU v OKS, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 3 Winners: HOU v KU, ISU at KSU, BU at TT, OKS at BYU, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 4 Winners: HOU v KU, ISU at KSU, TT v BU, BYU v OKS, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 5 Winner: HOU v KU, KSU v ISU, TT v BU, OKS at BYU, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 6 Winners: HOU v KU, KSU v ISU, TT v BU, OKS at BYU, TCU v UCF, OU at tu, CIN v WVU
CHALK Winners: HOU v KU, ISU at KSU, TT v BU, BYU v OKS, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
(Note well: the BU @TT game is a 50-50 toss up in kenpom, but he gives BU the winning point. asteroid's projections have it a 76-76 game.)
Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding Rules (taken from Wikipedia because I have not found it on big12sports.com this AY)
Teams are seeded in order of highest conference record.
Tie-breakers are based on conference record starting with:
1. Head-to-head
2. Record against highest standing team in conference, continuing down until one team gains an advantage
3. Conference road games
4. Road record against highest standing team, continuing down
5. Draw, starting with highest seed to be determined
Ties among more than two teams are broken similarly by comparing the "mini round-robin" record among tied teams, reverting to the above when elimination narrows it to two tied teams
) and explore today some "what ifs?" as relates to seeding for the B12 Men's hoops tournament.Below are 7 possible scenarios (the last one being "Chalk" results) to contemplate.
I started the table with the current W-L record for each program, noted whether the season final game was a Home or Away game for each program, and then adjusted those current records for 7 possible W-L scenarios this Saturday.
Yes there are more possible. But I doubt anyone will be interested beyond those presented.
My goal was to answer most of "the usual suspects" "What if" queries, such as
• What is KU's highest possible seed? (Answer: 4, earning a 2 day bye in the expanded B12T)
• KU's lowest possible seed? (Answer: 6, and 4 Ws needed to win it all)
• Can KSU escape playing on Tuesday, Day 1 of the expanded B12T and having to win 5 in a row to win the B12T?
(Answer: If KSU can beat ISU in Manhattan or Cincinnati loses at home to WVU, KSU is the 10 seed. If I was a betting man I'd bet on Cincinnati getting the 1 day bye as the 10 seed)
And so on...
Details for each scenario are very briefly summarized below the table.
Seeding was done using the B12T tiebreaking procedures detailed at the end of the post (sure hope I did it right!
)As KU fans, we would naturally favor Scenario 1.
@2024-03-07 SCENARIOS
TEAM W-L H/A SC 1 & Seed SC 2 & Seed SC3 & Seed
HOU 14-3 H L 14-4 1 L 14-4 1 W 15-3 1
ISU 13-4 A W 14-4 2 W 14-4 2 W 14-4 2
BU 11-6 A W 12-6 3 L 11-7 3 W 12-6 3
TT 10-7 H L 10-8 5 W 11-7 4 L 10-8 4
KU 10-7 A W 11-7 4 W 11-7 5 L 10-8 5
BYU 9-8 H W 10-8 6 W 10-8 6 L 9-9 7
TCU 9-8 H W 10-8 7 W 10-8 7 W 10-8 6
tu 8-9 H W 9-9 8 W 9-9 8 W 9-9 8
OU 8-9 A L 8-10 9 L 8-10 9 L 8-10 9
KSU 7-10 H L 7-11 11 L 7-11 11 L 7-11 11
CIN 6-11 H W 7-11 10 W 7-11 10 W 7-11 10
UCF 6-11 A L 7-11 12 L 7-11 12 L 7-11 12
OKS 4-13 A L 4-14 13 L 4-14 13 W 5-13 13
WVU 4-13 A L 4-14 14 L 4-14 14 L 4-14 14
TEAM SC 4 & Seed SC 5 & Seed SC6 & Seed Chalk & Seed
HOU W 15-3 1 W 15-3 1 W 15-3 1 W 15-3 1
ISU W 14-4 2 L 13-5 2 L 13-5 2 W 14-4 2
BU L 11-7 3 L 11-7 3 L 11-7 3 L 11-7 3
TT W 11-7 4 W 11-7 4 W 11-7 4 W 11-7 4
KU L 10-8 6 L 10-8 5 L 10-8 5 L 10-8 6
BYU W 10-8 5 L 9-9 7 L 9-9 7 W 10-8 5
TCU W 10-8 7 W 10-8 6 W 10-8 6 W 10-8 7
tu W 9-9 8 W 9-9 8 L 8-10 9 W 9-9 8
OU L 8-10 9 L 8-10 9 W 9-9 8 L 8-10 9
KSU L 7-11 11 W 8-10 10 W 8-10 10 L 7-11 11
CIN W 7-11 10 W 7-11 11 W 7-11 11 W 7-11 10
UCF L 7-11 12 L 7-11 12 L 7-11 12 L 7-11 12
OKS L 4-14 13 L 4-14 13 L 4-14 13 L 4-14 13
WVU L 4-14 14 L 4-14 14 L 4-14 14 L 4-14 14SCENARIO 2 Winners: KU at HOU, ISU at KSU, TT v BU, BYU v OKS, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 3 Winners: HOU v KU, ISU at KSU, BU at TT, OKS at BYU, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 4 Winners: HOU v KU, ISU at KSU, TT v BU, BYU v OKS, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 5 Winner: HOU v KU, KSU v ISU, TT v BU, OKS at BYU, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
SCENARIO 6 Winners: HOU v KU, KSU v ISU, TT v BU, OKS at BYU, TCU v UCF, OU at tu, CIN v WVU
CHALK Winners: HOU v KU, ISU at KSU, TT v BU, BYU v OKS, TCU v UCF, tu v OU, CIN v WVU
(Note well: the BU @TT game is a 50-50 toss up in kenpom, but he gives BU the winning point. asteroid's projections have it a 76-76 game.)
Big 12 Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding Rules (taken from Wikipedia because I have not found it on big12sports.com this AY)
Teams are seeded in order of highest conference record.
Tie-breakers are based on conference record starting with:
1. Head-to-head
2. Record against highest standing team in conference, continuing down until one team gains an advantage
3. Conference road games
4. Road record against highest standing team, continuing down
5. Draw, starting with highest seed to be determined
Ties among more than two teams are broken similarly by comparing the "mini round-robin" record among tied teams, reverting to the above when elimination narrows it to two tied teams
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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