Big 12 projection, round 18

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9   Rd 10
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223 13.167
# 11  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155 11.780
# 13  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608 10.046 10.482 10.774
# 30  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376 10.130
# 17  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899 10.141 11.123 10.347
# 16  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066 10.308
# 31  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539 10.935  9.956  9.970
# 25  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013  7.835  8.802  8.185
# 38  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438  9.338  8.485  9.244
# 70  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349  7.542  6.881  7.698
# 44  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680  7.848  8.699  8.651
# 64  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935  6.465  7.319  7.299
#135  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040  4.923  4.778  4.780
#108  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292  3.086  3.656  3.667

                      Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16  Rd 17  Rd 18
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj  Conf.            Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins  Recrd NextGame  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ----- --------  -----
#  1  Houston        13.469 13.495 13.683 13.903 14.285 14.378 14.653 14.835 14  3  KU  Sat  73-63
# 11  Iowa State     12.143 12.688 13.007 12.832 12.034 13.025 13.358 13.681 13  4 @KSU Sat  69-64
# 13  Baylor         10.471 10.937 11.153 10.722 10.304 10.900 11.236 11.506 11  6 @TTU Sat  76-76
# 30  Texas Tech     10.375 10.873 10.868 11.175 10.526  9.814 10.121 10.494 10  7  BU  Sat  76-76
# 17  Kansas         10.683  9.932 10.644 10.628 11.018 10.314  9.970 10.156 10  7 @UH  Sat  63-73
# 16  BYU            10.396 10.497  9.493  9.913  9.177  9.904 10.211  9.909  9  8  OSU Sat  84-70
# 31  TCU             9.722  9.777 10.308 10.029 10.423  9.794  9.493  9.757  9  8  UCF Sat  77-69
# 25  Texas           8.413  8.431  8.215  8.417  8.065  8.778  8.935  8.665  8  9  OU  Sat  75-71
# 38  Oklahoma        9.193  8.802  8.104  8.121  8.553  8.266  8.003  8.335  8  9 @UT  Sat  71-75
# 70  Kansas State    7.564  7.630  7.143  6.909  7.633  7.781  7.518  7.331  7 10  ISU Sat  64-69
# 44  Cincinnati      8.364  7.830  8.348  7.387  6.988  6.941  7.203  6.874  6 11  WVU Sat  79-67
# 64  UCF             7.063  6.950  6.351  5.573  6.218  6.772  6.437  6.243  6 11 @TCU Sat  69-77
#135  West Virginia   4.520  4.312  4.124  4.824  4.821  4.688  4.390  4.126  4 13 @UC  Sat  67-79
#108  Oklahoma State  3.625  3.574  4.559  5.443  5.197  4.647  4.472  4.101  4 13 @BYU Sat  70-84

Colley took honors for best prognostications in Round 18, his second consecutive win
and third this season.  Dunkel pulled up the rear again by a mile.  Dolphin retained
the season lead, with Dunkel easily in last place.

Three road wins were projected for Round 18, and all three happened.  Only one road win is
projected for Round 19, with Iowa State winning in Manhattan.  If that transpires, then we
will have exactly one road win in every three games (42 out of 126), equal to the long-term
average.  However, we would very much like to see Kansas win at Houston.

Road wins (41 out of 119)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
6 Houston        BYU UT  UC  BU  OU  UCF     0 Houston                                    +6 UH
4 Baylor         OSU UCF WVU TCU             0 Iowa State                                 +4 ISU
4 Iowa State     TCU UT  UC  UCF             1 Kansas         BYU                         +2 BU
4 TCU            OSU BU  KSU WVU             2 Baylor         TCU UH                      +2 TTU
4 Texas          UC  OU  TCU TTU             2 BYU            UC  UH                      +1 BYU
4 Texas Tech     UT  OU  WVU OSU             2 Kansas State   OU  TCU                     +1 KU
3 BYU            UCF WVU KU                  2 Texas Tech     UC  TTU                     +1 TCU
3 Cincinnati     BYU TTU UCF                 3 TCU            ISU UT  BU                   0 UT
3 Oklahoma       UC  KSU OSU                 4 Oklahoma       UT  TTU KU  UH              -1 KSU
2 Kansas         OSU OU                      4 Texas          TTU UCF UH  ISU             -1 OU
2 UCF            UT  OSU                     5 Cincinnati     UT  OU  UH  ISU OSU         -2 UC
1 Kansas State   WVU                         5 UCF            BYU BU  UC  ISU UH          -3 UCF
1 Oklahoma State UC                          5 West Virginia  KSU BYU BU  TTU TCU         -5 OSU 
0 West Virginia                              6 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU OU  UCF TTU     -5 WVU

It has occurred to me that the inconsistency value can be somehwat misleading,
because it depends on how many total points you score.  To use an extrene
example, a soccer team that scores 1 or 2 or 3 goals per game isn't going to
have an inconsistency of 10 points!  Take two teams with identical inconsistencies,
the one that score fewer total points will have a smaller inconsistency value.  That
is exemplified by Houston in the Big 12.  So, as an experiment, I have normalized
the inconistency values to a total score average of 150 points per game, and that
is shown in the second column, which is the column I have sorted on this time around.
TCU remains the most consistent team in the Big 12.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    -----------------------------
BYU             +2.94    TCU               7.12   7.03
Iowa State      +2.65    Oklahoma State    8.26   8.64
Houston         +2.59    West Virginia     8.81   9.08
Baylor          +1.96    Houston           8.05   9.19
Cincinnati      +1.20    Baylor            9.85   9.66
UCF             +1.08    Cincinnati        9.60  10.11
TCU             +1.06    Texas            10.30  10.63
Kansas          +1.02    Oklahoma         10.19  10.68
Oklahoma        +0.92    Texas Tech       10.74  11.11
Texas Tech      +0.34    Iowa State       10.65  11.55
Texas           +0.23    Kansas State     11.17  11.72
Kansas State    +0.17    BYU              11.99  11.87
Oklahoma State  -0.15    Kansas           11.79  12.15
West Virginia   -1.02    UCF              11.20  12.20

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +0.18 +/- 0.19    Kansas State    +0.09 +/- 0.21
Texas           +0.15 +/- 0.22    West Virginia   +0.05 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech      +0.13 +/- 0.23    Kansas          -0.03 +/- 0.24
UCF             +0.08 +/- 0.25    Cincinnati      -0.07 +/- 0.18
Kansas State    +0.06 +/- 0.24    Oklahoma        -0.09 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma State   0.00 +/- 0.18    TCU             -0.10 +/- 0.10
TCU             -0.07 +/- 0.15    Texas Tech      -0.11 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.08 +/- 0.27    Texas           -0.13 +/- 0.17
Baylor          -0.22 +/- 0.22    Oklahoma State  -0.15 +/- 0.14
Cincinnati      -0.31 +/- 0.20    UCF             -0.18 +/- 0.21
Iowa State      -0.36 +/- 0.22    Iowa State      -0.40 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma        -0.37 +/- 0.21    BYU             -0.52 +/- 0.18
Houston         -0.39 +/- 0.16    Baylor          -0.58 +/- 0.15
BYU             -0.65 +/- 0.23    Houston         -0.58 +/- 0.13

Some notes on scoring margin.  First, it's harder to have a big scoring margin if the total
score is very low, so the margins ought to be adjusted for total points, just like the
inconsistency values above.  That would make Houston's scoring margin even more impressive.
Second, it's harder to run up a big scoring margin if you're playing a difficult schedule.
The reason Iowa State has such a large scoring margin is because of their soft non-conference
schedule.  For example, they beat #357 Lindenwood by 55 points and #331 Prairie View by 51
points, not to mention #339 Florida A&M by 38 points or #285 Grambling by 55 points.
Correcting for these effects is subjective; nevertheless, the scoring margin ranking
closely mimics the actual standings.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)  
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------
BYU             81.66   Houston         57.62   Baylor          152.90   Houston         +16.17
Baylor          81.03   Iowa State      62.49   TCU             151.87   Iowa State      +13.32
TCU             80.23   UCF             67.20   BYU             151.47   BYU             +11.85
Kansas          76.37   Oklahoma        68.25   West Virginia   145.60   Baylor           +9.17
Iowa State      75.81   Cincinnati      68.64   Kansas          145.55   TCU              +8.60
Texas           75.62   Kansas          69.18   Texas           145.30   Kansas           +7.19
Texas Tech      75.52   Texas Tech      69.38   Texas Tech      144.90   Oklahoma         +6.57
Oklahoma        74.82   Texas           69.68   Oklahoma State  143.40   Texas Tech       +6.13
Cincinnati      73.82   BYU             69.81   Oklahoma        143.07   Texas            +5.95
Houston         73.78   Kansas State    70.95   Kansas State    143.00   Cincinnati       +5.18
Kansas State    72.05   TCU             71.63   Cincinnati      142.47   UCF              +3.29
Oklahoma State  70.71   Baylor          71.86   Iowa State      138.30   Kansas State     +1.10
UCF             70.49   Oklahoma State  72.69   UCF             137.69   Oklahoma State   -1.98
West Virginia   69.12   West Virginia   76.47   Houston         131.40   West Virginia    -7.35

Kansas and Baylor both end their regular seasons on the road, though Houston is arguably
the stronger opponent, so Kansas ought to end the regular season on top of the schedule
strength rankings.  Kansas will also get a more difficult opponent in the Big 12 Tournament
by virtue of being seeded below Baylor.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Baylor         +12.82 (  4)
Kansas         +12.64 (  5)
West Virginia  +11.49 ( 10)
Kansas State   +10.20 ( 23)
Houston         +9.97 ( 29)
Texas           +9.92 ( 31)
Oklahoma        +9.13 ( 43)
Cincinnati      +9.08 ( 44)
BYU             +9.06 ( 45)
Texas Tech      +8.84 ( 50)
Oklahoma State  +8.73 ( 53)
UCF             +8.62 ( 58)
TCU             +8.56 ( 61)
Iowa State      +8.37 ( 65)