Big 12 projection, round 16

Another abbreviated edition due to shortness of time.

                      Init   Rd 1   Rd 2   Rd 3   Rd 4   Rd 5   Rd 6   Rd 7   Rd 8   Rd 9   Rd 10
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj 
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
#  1  Houston        14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223 13.167
# 10  Iowa State     10.283  9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155 11.780
# 14  Baylor         10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535  9.608 10.046 10.482 10.774
# 16  Kansas         11.129 11.165  9.953 10.509 11.149  9.975 10.129  9.899 10.141 11.123 10.347
# 15  BYU            13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066 10.308
# 38  Texas Tech      8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376 10.130
# 29  TCU             8.897  8.838  9.434 10.428 10.101  9.485  9.699 10.539 10.935  9.956  9.970
# 27  Texas           8.957  7.615  8.460  7.481  6.422  7.099  8.313  8.013  7.835  8.802  8.185
# 40  Oklahoma        9.775 10.625 10.049  9.582  9.673 10.451  9.153  8.438  9.338  8.485  9.244
# 71  Kansas State    6.225  7.348  8.108  7.872  8.624  8.740  8.583  8.349  7.542  6.881  7.698
# 44  Cincinnati      8.497  9.970  9.053  8.992  9.415  8.605  8.372  8.680  7.848  8.699  8.651
# 66  UCF             5.855  4.785  5.635  5.777  6.960  6.883  7.267  6.935  6.465  7.319  7.299
#131  West Virginia   3.680  3.467  2.787  3.626  3.496  4.655  4.376  4.040  4.923  4.778  4.780
#102  Oklahoma State  4.861  4.635  4.385  3.978  3.409  3.237  2.968  3.292  3.086  3.656  3.667

                      Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16
                      Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Proj   Conf.             Pred.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Recrd  Next Game  Score
----  -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  -----  ---------  -----
#  1  Houston        13.469 13.495 13.683 13.903 14.285 14.378  12  3  @OU   Sat  67-61  road win
# 10  Iowa State     12.143 12.688 13.007 12.832 12.034 13.025  11  4  @UCF  Sat  70-66  road win
----- championship hopes on life support ---------------------
# 14  Baylor         10.471 10.937 11.153 10.722 10.304 10.900   9  6   KU   Sat  76-71
# 16  Kansas         10.683  9.932 10.644 10.628 11.018 10.314   9  6  @BU   Sat  71-76
----- teams below have been eliminated mathematically --------
# 15  BYU            10.396 10.497  9.493  9.913  9.177  9.904   8  7   TCU  Sat  82-77
# 38  Texas Tech     10.375 10.873 10.868 11.175 10.526  9.814   8  7  @WVU  Sat  77-72  road win
# 29  TCU             9.722  9.777 10.308 10.029 10.423  9.794   8  7  @BYU  Sat  77-82
# 27  Texas           8.413  8.431  8.215  8.417  8.065  8.778   7  8   OSU  Sat  78-68
# 40  Oklahoma        9.193  8.802  8.104  8.121  8.553  8.266   7  8   UH   Sat  61-67
# 71  Kansas State    7.564  7.630  7.143  6.909  7.633  7.781   7  8  @UC   Sat  65-71
# 44  Cincinnati      8.364  7.830  8.348  7.387  6.988  6.941   5 10   KSU  Sat  71-65
# 66  UCF             7.063  6.950  6.351  5.573  6.218  6.772   6  9   ISU  Sat  66-70
#131  West Virginia   4.520  4.312  4.124  4.824  4.821  4.688   4 11   TTU  Sat  72-77
#102  Oklahoma State  3.625  3.574  4.559  5.443  5.197  4.647   4 11  @UT   Sat  68-78

Surprise, but Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 16, after correctly
predicting losses by Kansas, TCU, and Oklahoma State.  Real Time pulled up the rear.
Dolphin has taken over the season lead, with Dunkel still in last place.

No road wins were expected in Round 16, but two happened, with Texas taking down Texas Tech in
Lubbock, and UCF taking down Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Three road wins are projected for
Round 17, with Houston winning in Norman, Iowa State winning in Orlando, and Texas Tech winning
in Morgantown.  Despite all the claims about how hard it is to win on the road in the Big 12,
the number of road wins so far is exactly one in three, equal to the long-term average.

Road wins (35 out of 105)                    Home losses                                   RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
4 Houston        BYU UT  UC  BU              0 Houston                                    +4 UH
4 Baylor         OSU UCF WVU TCU             0 Iowa State                                 +3 ISU
4 Texas          UC  OU  TCU TTU             1 Kansas         BYU                         +2 BU
3 Cincinnati     BYU TTU UCF                 2 Texas Tech     UC  TTU                     +1 BYU
3 Iowa State     TCU UT  UC                  2 Baylor         TCU UH                      +1 KU
3 Oklahoma       UC  KSU OSU                 2 BYU            UC  UH                       0 TCU
3 TCU            OSU BU  KSU                 2 Kansas State   OU  TCU                      0 TTU
3 BYU            UCF WVU KU                  3 Oklahoma       UT  TTU KU                   0 OU
2 Kansas         OSU OU                      3 TCU            ISU UT  BU                   0 UT
2 Texas Tech     UT  OU                      3 UCF            BYU BU  UC                  -1 KSU
2 UCF            UT  OSU                     3 West Virginia  KSU BYU BU                  -1 UCF
1 Kansas State   WVU                         4 Texas          TTU UCF UH  ISU             -2 UC
1 Oklahoma State UC                          5 Cincinnati     UT  OU  UH  ISU OSU         -3 WVU 
0 West Virginia                              5 Oklahoma State BU  KU  TCU OU  UCF         -4 OSU

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Baylor         +12.00 (  5)
Kansas         +11.72 (  6)
West Virginia  +10.91 ( 10)
Texas           +8.97 ( 34)
Kansas State    +8.65 ( 39)
Houston         +8.57 ( 41)
Texas Tech      +8.34 ( 48)
Cincinnati      +8.25 ( 51)
Oklahoma        +7.81 ( 60)
BYU             +7.67 ( 61)
TCU             +7.45 ( 63)
Oklahoma State  +7.41 ( 64)
Iowa State      +7.10 ( 71)
UCF             +6.90 ( 73)