predictions for Baylor game

Don't let one become two.

Third place in the Big 12 is up for grabs today.  The loser gets eliminated from
the possibility of a championship, while the winner remains alive, though possibly
for only seven hours, if Houston wins in Norman later in the day.

Kansas has played eight conference games by double-digits above or below
expectation, including the last four in a row, making the Jayhawks the Big 12's
most inconsistent team.  The Jayhawks have never played by double-digits below
expectation for two games in a row this season, but even playing single digits
below expectation today won't be enough to win.  All the usual prognosticators
are picking Baylor to win this game, so it will take an above-expectation
performance to pull out a win.  Meanwhile, Baylor has played its entire Big 12
slate within single digits of expectation, making the Bears one of the conference's
most consistent teams.

Dunkel is the pessimist, expecting Kansas to lose by 12 points.  Maybe that's a
good sign, considering how poorly Dunkel has performed as a prognosticator this
season.  Seven Overtimes is the most optimistic, expecting Kansas to lose by
only 2 points; then again, Bashuk's confidence in that result is only 46 percent,
so does that mean Kansas has a 54 percent chance of winning?  The average is
showing a 4.8 point loss by Kansas, with a scatter of 2.7 points.  Two possession
game, so a win by the Jayhawks wouldn't be an unreasonable expectation.  The
big question is whether McCullar will play or not.

I hate these early tips.  Time to get some sleep.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BU      KU      Defensive Stats      BU      KU
Points/Game         81.1    76.4     Opp Points/Game     70.8    68.3
Avg Score Margin   +10.3    +8.1     Opp Effective FG %  50.8    46.9
Assists/Game        15.1    19.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.5     7.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.9    36.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.3    25.8
Effective FG %      56.2    54.5     Blocks/Game          3.2     3.7
Off Rebound %       33.4    24.7     Steals/Game          6.5     7.4
FTA/FGA            0.399   0.331     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.1    14.7
Turnover %          15.1    14.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU             BU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.97           +2.15    
inconsistency         12.05           10.18    
trend                 -0.17 ± 0.30    -0.26 ± 0.25
mental toughness      -0.01 ± 0.25    -0.06 ± 0.16         
average total pts      144.70         151.85

Common Opponents
================
There are thirteen common opponents, all twelve other conference members plus
Kansas City, two of which Baylor has played twice (BYU, TCU) and two of which
Kansas has played twice (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State), plus the head-to-head in
Lawrence, giving us eighteen scores to compare:

KU  +19 KC  at home (+16 neutral court)
BU  +38 KC  at home (+35 neutral court)
KU  -22 BU  on road (-19 neutral court)

KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)     KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)
BU   +5 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)     BU   +5 OSU on road ( +8 neutral court)
KU  +16 BU  on road (+19 neutral court)     KU  +15 BU  on road (+18 neutral court)

KU   -8 BYU at home (-11 neutral court)     KU   -8 BYU at home (-11 neutral court)
BU   +9 BYU at home ( +6 neutral court)     BU   -7 BYU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU  -20 BU  on road (-17 neutral court)     KU  -10 BU  on road ( -7 neutral court)

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
BU   +3 UC  at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   -1 BU  on road ( +2 neutral court)

KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
BU   -4 KSU on road ( -1 neutral court)
KU   -4 BU  on road ( -1 neutral court)

KU  +19 UT  at home (+16 neutral court)
BU   -2 UT  on road ( +1 neutral court)
KU  +12 BU  on road (+15 neutral court)

KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)     KU   +2 TCU at home ( -1 neutral court)
BU   -3 TCU at home ( -6 neutral court)     BU   +8 TCU on road (+11 neutral court)
KU   +2 BU  on road ( +5 neutral court)     KU  -15 BU  on road (-12 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
BU   +8 UCF on road (+11 neutral court)
KU  -16 BU  on road (-13 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
BU   +2 ISU at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   -3 BU  on road (  0 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-26 neutral court)
BU   +6 TTU at home ( +3 neutral court)
KU  -32 BU  on road (-29 neutral court)

KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)     KU  +10 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)
BU  +17 OU  at home (+14 neutral court)     BU  +17 OU  at home (+14 neutral court)
KU   -8 BU  on road ( -5 neutral court)     KU   -4 BU  on road ( -1 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
BU  +13 WVU on road (+16 neutral court)
KU  -22 BU  on road (-19 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)
BU   -6 UH  at home ( -9 neutral court)
KU  +16 BU  on road (+19 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
KU   -3 BU  on road (  0 neutral court)

Only five of the comparisons favor Kansas, while the other thirteen favor Baylor.
The average is 5.5 points in favor of Baylor, with a scatter of 14.2 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Rayj Dennis (guard)
most points        Ja'Kobe Walter (guard)
most rebounds      Yves Missi (center)
most assists       Rayj Dennis (guard)
most steals        Rayj Dennis (guard)
most blocks        Yves Missi (center)
most turnovers     Rayj Dennis (guard)
most fouls         Yves Missi (center)

Guard Langston Love did not play the last two games because of a knee injury,
and it is unclear whether he'll be available to play today; he's one of the
Bears' six main contributors.  Reserve forward Yanis Ndjonga has been out for
the season due to a torn ACL.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          21-7           20-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  -3.00   72   75       41       #  8   #  5    # 12   #  6
Pomeroy                 -4.63   71   76       33.1     # 16   #  6    # 14   #  4
Greenfield              -6.00   69.5 75.5              # 16   #  7    # 15   #  5
Dunkel                 -12.00   70   82                # 13           # 23
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -5.50   70   75                                        
Dolphin Predictive      -3.96   72   76       36.6     # 17   #  5    # 13   #  3
Real Time               -9.00   69   78       31.9     # 15   #  7    # 28   #  5
Seven Overtimes         -2.00   73   75       54       #  8   #  9    # 15   # 31
DPPI                    -4.30   72   78       37.3     # 13   #  6    # 10   #  8 
ESPN BPI                -5.70                 28.9     # 16   #  9    # 14   #  6
Whitlock                -2.60                          # 14   # 26    # 17   # 32
Colley Matrix           -2.08                          # 12   # 16    # 21   # 17
Donchess                -2.70   73   76       42.7     # 14   #  5    # 16   # 12
Haslametrics            -4.20   70   74                # 20           # 14
INCCStats               -3.00   72   75       38       # 17           # 15
common opponents        -5.50
NCAA NET                                               # 17           # 14
LRMC                                                   # 17   # 15    # 16   # 14
Massey composite                                       # 10           # 15
Pomeroy offense                                        # 46           #  5
Pomeroy defense                                        #  9           # 60
Pomeroy tempo                                          #100           #296
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 -4.76   71.1 76.3     38.2
scatter                  2.65    1.4  2.2      7.4

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 22-9:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #250 North Carolina Central      99  56   +21.86   +21.14
HOME   #343 Manhattan                   99  61   +30.99    +7.01
NEUT   # 18 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.15    +4.85
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 11 Marquette                   59  73    -1.84   -12.16
NEUT   #  5 Tennessee                   69  60    -4.54   +13.54
HOME   #318 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +26.48   -18.48
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -2.14    +6.14
HOME   #228 UMKC                        88  69   +21.11    -2.11
HOME   #147 Missouri                    73  64   +16.23    -7.23
AWAY   #101 Indiana                     75  71    +6.02    -2.02
HOME   # 86 Yale                        75  60   +10.83    +4.17
NEUT   #159 Wichita St.                 86  67   +14.21    +4.79
HOME   # 30 TCU                         83  81    +5.69    -3.69
AWAY   # 65 UCF                         60  65    +2.51    -7.51
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma                    78  66    +6.42    +5.58
AWAY   #102 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +6.06   +17.94
AWAY   #132 West Virginia               85  91    +8.85   -14.85
HOME   # 43 Cincinnati                  74  69    +7.14    -2.14
AWAY   # 10 Iowa St.                    75  79    -5.36    +1.36
HOME   #102 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +13.06   +15.94
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -3.69   +16.69
AWAY   # 71 Kansas St.                  70  75    +2.84    -7.84
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      64  61    +2.37    +0.63
AWAY   # 36 Texas Tech                  50  79    -0.73   -28.27
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma                    67  57    -0.58   +10.58
HOME   # 26 Texas                       86  67    +5.47   +13.53
HOME   # 15 BYU                         68  76    +3.43   -11.43
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      71  76    -4.63             0.331
HOME   # 71 Kansas St.                  74  64    +9.84             0.824
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     61  71   -10.69             0.156

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  6 Auburn                      88  82    -3.03    +9.03
NAIA        John Brown                  96  70
HOME   #199 Gardner Webb                77  62   +20.86    -5.86
HOME   #250 UMKC                        99  61   +21.88   +16.12
NEUT   #150 Oregon St.                  88  72   +13.44    +2.56
NEUT   # 28 Florida                     95  91    +3.15    +0.85
HOME   #268 Nicholls St.               108  70   +22.93   +15.07
HOME   #320 Northwestern St.            91  40   +26.98   +24.02
HOME   # 56 Seton Hall                  78  60    +9.50    +8.50
NEUT   # 19 Michigan St.                64  88    +1.52   -25.52
NEUT   #  8 Duke                        70  78    -1.55    -6.45
HOME   #362 Mississippi Valley St.     107  48   +38.62   +20.38
HOME   #111 Cornell                     98  79   +14.83    +4.17
AWAY   #102 Oklahoma St.                75  70    +6.61    -1.61
HOME   # 15 BYU                         81  72    +4.50    +4.50
HOME   # 44 Cincinnati                  62  59    +7.99    -4.99
AWAY   # 71 Kansas St.                  64  68    +3.63    -7.63
AWAY   # 27 Texas                       73  75    -0.53    -1.47
HOME   # 29 TCU                        102 105    +6.60    -9.60
AWAY   # 66 UCF                         77  69    +3.27    +4.73
HOME   # 10 Iowa St.                    70  68    +2.71    -0.71
HOME   # 38 Texas Tech                  79  73    +7.09    -1.09
AWAY   # 16 Kansas                      61  64    -2.44    -0.56
HOME   # 40 Oklahoma                    79  62    +7.37    +9.63
AWAY   #131 West Virginia               94  81    +9.23    +3.77
AWAY   # 15 BYU                         71  78    -2.50    -4.50
HOME   #  1 Houston                     76  82    -2.38    -3.62
AWAY   # 29 TCU                         62  54    -0.40    +8.40
HOME   # 16 Kansas                      76  71    +4.56             0.667
HOME   # 27 Texas                       77  71    +6.47             0.730
AWAY   # 38 Texas Tech                  75  75    +0.09             0.503