predictions for BYU game

BYU played eight of its thirteen non-conference games by double digits above
expectation, which elevated the Cougars to lofty positions in the various power
rankings.  Three other non-conference games were also played above expectation,
but by just single digits.  The two below-expectation performance were by just
single digits.  However, the toughest opponent in which they racked up a
double-digit above expectation performance was #118 Arizona State.  Seems like
BYU is pretty dominant against weaker opponents.  How do they stack up against
tougher opponents?  In conference play, they've played just a single game by
double digits above expectation, and that came against Iowa State in the fourth
conference game.  In four other games, they've played double digits BELOW
expectation.  It appears that BYU isn't quite so formidable against tougher
opponents.

But they shoot a LOT of treys, and as Jayhawk fans know (rather painfully),
live by the three, die by the three.  I think the key to the game will be
three-point defense.

Dunkel is picking BYU to win by 1 point, while the rest of the usual
prognoticators are picking Kansas by anywhere from 3 points (Seven Overtimes)
to 11 points (RealTime, with its enormous home court advantage).  The average
is 5.4 points, with a scatter of 2.6 points.  If you like, you can reduce
that number a bit to compensate for the statement by Self that McCullar won't
play again.  BYU is one of the highest scoring teams in the conference, so
total points are expected to be around 148, though because of the absence of
McCullar, you might be persuaded to take the under on that due to the absence
of his offense.  Then again, the absence of his defense might allow BYU to
score more than average.  Take your pick.

Conference play has been tough on the Cougars, and they were embarrassed in
Manhattan over the weekend.  Their trend is at the bottom the Big 12 and is
statistically significant at the four sigma level, which is almost unheard
of.  They're also at the bottom of the conference in the mental toughness
rating, and that is significant at more than the three sigma level.  Ouch.
Taken at face value, that would take more than 11 points from their
projected score.  By comparison, the trend and mental toughness values for
Kansas are flat and do nothing to the Jayhawks' projected score.

It's a home game and a must win for Kansas, given that Baylor could not
hang on to defeat Houston in Waco, so those other Cougars are in the
driver's seat.  Kansas is two games back with four to play in the newspaper
standings, and three games back in the projected standings, making the task
at hand even more daunting.  A more practical goal at this stage is to earn
the double bye in the conference tournament.

Rock Chalk!

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats      BYU     KU      Defensive Stats      BYU     KU
Points/Game         82.8    76.7     Opp Points/Game     69.3    68.0
Avg Score Margin   +13.5    +8.7     Opp Effective FG %  48.4    46.7
Assists/Game        19.1    19.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.6     7.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   40.0    35.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     25.7    25.7
Effective FG %      55.4    55.0     Blocks/Game          2.8     3.8
Off Rebound %       32.7    24.9     Steals/Game          6.3     7.5
FTA/FGA            0.237   0.324     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.5    14.5
Turnover %          12.9    14.7   

My Stats Comparison        KU             BYU
===================   =============   ============
performance           +0.84           +3.47    
inconsistency         12.02           12.45    
trend                 -0.06 ± 0.32    -0.97 ± 0.25
mental toughness      +0.02 ± 0.25    -0.66 ± 0.19         
average total pts      144.73         152.11

Common Opponents
================
There are eleven common opponents, all in conference (BYU has yet to play TCU),
three of which BYU has played twice (Baylor, UCF, Kansas State), and two of
which Kansas has played twice (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State), giving us sixteen
scores to compare:

KU   +5 UC  at home ( +2 neutral court)
BYU -11 UC  at home (-14 neutral court)
KU  +19 BYU at home (+16 neutral court)

KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)     KU   +3 BU  at home (  0 neutral court)
BYU  -9 BU  on road ( -6 neutral court)     BYU  +7 BU  at home ( +4 neutral court)
KU   +9 BYU at home ( +6 neutral court)     KU   -1 BYU at home ( -4 neutral court)

KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU   -5 UCF on road ( -2 neutral court)
BYU  +5 UCF on road ( +8 neutral court)     BYU  +2 UCF at home ( -1 neutral court)
KU   -7 BYU at home (-10 neutral court)     KU   +2 BYU at home ( -1 neutral court)

KU   -4 ISU on road ( -1 neutral court)
BYU +15 ISU at home (+12 neutral court)
KU  -10 BYU at home (-13 neutral court)

KU  -29 TTU on road (-26 neutral court)
BYU  -7 TTU on road ( -4 neutral court)
KU  -19 BYU at home (-22 neutral court)

KU  +13 UH  at home (+10 neutral court)
BYU  -7 UH  at home (-10 neutral court)
KU  +23 BYU at home (+20 neutral court)

KU  +19 UT  at home (+16 neutral court)
BYU +12 UT  at home ( +9 neutral court)
KU  +10 BYU at home ( +7 neutral court)

KU   -6 WVU on road ( -3 neutral court)
BYU +13 WVU on road (+16 neutral court)
KU  -16 BYU at home (-19 neutral court)

KU  +10 OU  on road (+13 neutral court)     KU  +12 OU  at home ( +9 neutral court)
BYU -16 OU  on road (-13 neutral court)     BYU -16 OU  on road (-13 neutral court)
KU  +29 BYU at home (+26 neutral court)     KU  +25 BYU at home (+22 neutral court)

KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)     KU   -5 KSU on road ( -2 neutral court)
BYU  +6 KSU at home ( +3 neutral court)     BYU -10 KSU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU   -2 BYU at home ( -5 neutral court)     KU   +8 BYU at home ( +5 neutral court)

KU  +24 OSU on road (+27 neutral court)     KU  +29 OSU at home (+26 neutral court)
BYU -10 OSU on road ( -7 neutral court)     BYU -10 OSU on road ( -7 neutral court)
KU  +37 BYU at home (+34 neutral court)     KU  +36 BYU at home (+33 neutral court)

Ten of the comparisons favor Kansas, while six favor BYU.  The average is 8.94 points
in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 17.81 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Dallin Hall (guard)
most points        Jaxson Robinson (guard)
most rebounds      Noah Waterman (forward)
most assists       Dallin Hall (guard)
most steals        two tied
most blocks        Aly Khalifa (forward)
most turnovers     Dallin Hall (guard)
most fouls         Atiki Ally Atiki (forward)

Reserve guard Dawson baker is out for the season with a foot injury.  He's
eleventh on the team in minutes per game played and ninth in points per game
scored.

I might take these with a grain of salt, as it appears that Greenfield has a
serious bug in their database, based on the fact that the Kansas player with the
most minutes is Charlie McCarthy with 37.00, the Kansas player with the most
points is Charlie McCarthy with 34.00, and the Kansas player with the most steals
is Charlie McCarthy with 2.00.  "To err is humnan; to really screw up takes a
computer."

                                                          21-6           19-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          BYU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Massey                  +6.00   78   72       72       #  6   #  6    # 23   # 46
Pomeroy                 +4.41   80   75       66.2     # 15   #  8    # 18   # 72
Greenfield              +6.50   80   73.5              # 14   #  7    # 16   # 27
Dunkel                  -1.00   69   70                # 12           # 22
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.00   80   73                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +3.83   78   74       62.8     # 16   #  7    # 18   # 19
Real Time              +11.00   79   68       72.5     #  9   # 12    # 54   #118
Seven Overtimes         +3.00   76   73       71       #  8   # 1o    # 45   # 45
DPPI                    +4.10   76.5 72       60.7     # 10   #  8    # 17   # 69 
ESPN BPI                +6.10                 71.5     # 15   #  9    # 18   # 60
Whitlock                +4.80                          # 14   # 26    # 21   # 69
Colley Matrix           +6.50                          # 12   # 23    # 36   # 82
Donchess                +6.40   79   72       71.5     # 12   #  8    # 21   # 72
Haslametrics            +4.43   79   75                # 15           # 21
INCCStats               +5.00   80   75       69       # 14           # 22
common opponents        +8.94
NCAA NET                                               # 15           # 14
LRMC                                                   # 16   # 20    # 23   # 75
Massey composite                                       # 10           # 22
Pomeroy offense                                        # 37           #  9
Pomeroy defense                                        # 10           # 69
Pomeroy tempo                                          #103           # 93
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +5.44   77.9 72.7     68.6
scatter                  2.63    3.1  2.1      4.4

Here is Kansas' season, with a projected record of 23-8:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #253 North Carolina Central      99  56   +22.27   +20.73
HOME   #346 Manhattan                   99  61   +31.59    +6.41
NEUT   # 17 Kentucky                    89  84    +0.66    +4.34
Div2        Chaminade                   83  56
NEUT   # 13 Marquette                   59  73    -0.92   -13.08
NEUT   #  6 Tennessee                   69  60    -3.88   +12.88
HOME   #321 Eastern Illinois            71  63   +27.02   -19.02
HOME   #  3 Connecticut                 69  65    -1.67    +5.67
HOME   #251 UMKC                        88  69   +22.17    -3.17
HOME   #146 Missouri                    73  64   +16.86    -7.86
AWAY   #104 Indiana                     75  71    +6.89    -2.89
HOME   # 87 Yale                        75  60   +11.43    +3.57
NEUT   #167 Wichita St.                 86  67   +15.24    +3.76
HOME   # 28 TCU                         83  81    +5.98    -3.98
AWAY   # 69 UCF                         60  65    +3.20    -8.20
HOME   # 38 Oklahoma                    78  66    +6.63    +5.37
AWAY   #100 Oklahoma St.                90  66    +6.17   +17.83
AWAY   #134 West Virginia               85  91    +9.34   -15.34
HOME   # 47 Cincinnati                  74  69    +7.95    -2.95
AWAY   # 11 Iowa St.                    75  79    -4.68    +0.68
HOME   #100 Oklahoma St.                83  54   +13.17   +15.83
HOME   #  1 Houston                     78  65    -3.49   +16.49
AWAY   # 71 Kansas St.                  70  75    +3.32    -8.32
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      64  61    +2.83    +0.17
AWAY   # 31 Texas Tech                  50  79    -0.94   -28.06
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma                    67  57    -0.37   +10.37
HOME   # 36 Texas                       86  67    +6.56   +12.44
HOME   # 18 BYU                         80  75    +4.41             0.662
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      72  76    -4.17             0.347
HOME   # 71 Kansas St.                  74  64   +10.32             0.835
AWAY   #  1 Houston                     61  72   -10.49             0.161

Here is BYU's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #353 Houston Christian          110  63   +33.90   +13.10
HOME   # 16 San Diego St.               74  65    +2.96    +6.04
HOME   #279 Southeastern Louisiana     105  48   +22.39   +34.61
HOME   #338 Morgan St.                  93  50   +30.65   +12.35
NEUT   #118 Arizona St.                 77  49   +10.28   +17.72
NEUT   # 73 N.C. State                  95  86    +6.43    +2.57
NEUT   #213 Fresno St.                  85  56   +16.17   +12.83
HOME   #191 Evansville                  96  55   +19.69   +21.31
AWAY   # 51 Utah                        69  73    +0.88    -4.88
HOME   #254 Denver                      90  74   +22.46    -6.46
HOME   #204 Georgia St.                 86  54   +20.00   +12.00
HOME   #314 Bellarmine                 101  59   +25.21   +16.79
HOME   #182 Wyoming                     94  68   +18.82    +7.18
HOME   # 47 Cincinnati                  60  71    +7.00   -18.00
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                      72  81    -4.71    -4.29
AWAY   # 70 UCF                         63  58    +2.38    +2.62
HOME   # 11 Iowa St.                    87  72    +1.35   +13.65
AWAY   # 31 Texas Tech                  78  85    -1.88    -5.12
HOME   #  1 Houston                     68  75    -4.35    -2.65
HOME   # 36 Texas                       84  72    +5.75    +6.25
AWAY   #141 West Virginia               86  73    +8.68    +4.32
AWAY   # 38 Oklahoma                    66  82    -1.25   -14.75
HOME   # 69 Kansas St.                  72  66    +9.25    -3.25
HOME   # 70 UCF                         90  88    +9.38    -7.38
AWAY   #100 Oklahoma St.                83  93    +5.31   -15.31
HOME   # 14 Baylor                      78  71    +2.29    +4.71
AWAY   # 69 Kansas St.                  74  84    +2.25   -12.25
AWAY   # 15 Kansas                      75  80    -4.48             0.336
HOME   # 25 TCU                         83  79    +4.71             0.672
AWAY   # 11 Iowa St.                    73  79    -5.65             0.297
HOME   #100 Oklahoma St.                83  71   +12.31             0.878