predictions for Kansas State game

Sunflower Showdown.  And the only Wednesday conference game of the season.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 10.9 point margin, with an 87.4 percent probability
of winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 145.6 points
per game, that suggests a final score of Kansas 78, Kansas State 67.  Kansas
has been playing 0.6 points above expectation, while Kansas State has been
playing 0.1 points below expectation, which means that the margin for Kansas
could be 11.5 points.  The Jayhawks now have a strongly negative trend, while
the Wildcats have been flat.  The mental toughness ratings for Kansas and
Kansas State are negative and positive, respectively, but neither is
statistically significant.  Taken at face value, the margin for Kansas would
be reduced to just 7.9 points.  Due to recent play, Kansas is far more
inconsistent than Kansas State.  In 4 of 20 Division I games, the Jayhawks
played below expectation by more than 10.9 points, with 3 of those coming in
the last 5 games, which would be enough to lose today's game.  That corresponds
to a 20 percent chance of losing.  Meanwhile, Kansas State has played above
expectation by 10.9 points only once in their 21 games, corresponding to just a
4.8 percent chance of winning.  Those average to a 12.4 percent chance of Kansas
losing the game, in very good agreement with the probability derived from the
Sagarin ratings shown above.

Massey gives Kansas a 10.0 point margin, with an 84 percent probability of
winning the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 78, Kansas State 68.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 9.8 units, but
Kansas State has the better adjusted defense by 2.3 units, which combine
to a 7.5 units advantage for Kansas.  With an average of 69.6 possessions
per game, the margin for Kansas works out to 5.2 points on a neutral court.
Add Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, and the margin becomes 8.5
points.  The ratings suggest a score of Kansas 76, Kansas State 67, with
the rounding working in the Jayhawks' favor.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 12.0 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 78.5 to 66.5 (you pick the roundings).  Among the key offensive
stats, Kansas has the advantage in six of eight categories; Kansas State has
a higher offensive rebound percentage and attempts more free throws per field
goal attempt.  Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in just
three of seven categories, namely defensive rebounds per game, blocks per game,
and personal fouls per game.

Dunkel gives Kansas a 14.0 point margin, and he claims that a Vegas line is
at 11.0 points, so he is picking Kansas against the spread.  With a total points
projection of 150, the implied final score is Kansas 82, Kansas State 68.
Meanwhile, he claims the Vegas total is 142.5, which would imply a final score
of Kansas 77, Kansas State 66.

Real Time gives Kansas a 14.0 point margin with a final score of 86 to 72.  The
probability of winning the game is given as 74.4 percent.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 9.2 point margin, with a 78.8 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 75, Kansas State 66.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 8.5 units in favor of Kansas, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas a 6.1 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by 9.4 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 3.4 points in favor of
Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.3 point home court advantage,
and Kansas has a 6.7 point margin.  The BPI has Duke ranked five spots ahead of
Kansas.

In the "hard to understand" category, LRMC has Kansas ranked down at #18, seven
spots lower than Duke, who fell out of the national polls after another loss.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 6.0 point margin, corresponding to a 71 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 76 to 70.  Yet
another computer rating that has Kansas ranked #18.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 9.8 point margin.

DPPI gives Kansas a 14.1 point margin.

There are seven common opponents, all in conference, once of which Kansas State
has played twice (Oklahoma), giving us eight scores to compare:

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)     KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
KSU  -4 WV  at home ( -8 neutral)     KSU -15 WV  on road (-11 neutral)
KU   +5 KSU at home ( +1 neutral)     KU   +8 KSU at home ( +4 neutral)

KU   +4 UT  at home (  0 neutral)
KSU  -3 UT  on road ( +1 neutral)
KU   +3 KSU at home ( -1 neutral)

KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)
KSU -10 OU  on road ( -6 neutral)
KU   +9 KSU at home ( +5 neutral)

KU  +10 TT  on road (+14 neutral)
KSU +13 TT  at home ( +9 neutral)
KU   +9 KSU at home ( +5 neutral)

KU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
KSU -13 ISU at home (-17 neutral)
KU  +12 KSU at home ( +8 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
KSU  -7 BU  on road ( -3 neutral)
KU  +31 KSU at home (+27 neutral)

KU  -19 OSU on road (-15 neutral)
KSU +16 OSU at home (+12 neutral)
KU  -23 KSU at home (-27 neutral)

Seven of the comparisons favor Kansas, while one favors Kansas State.  The
lopsided comparisons involving Baylor and Oklahoma State largely offset one
another.  The average is 6.8 points in favor of Kansas.

Players to watch:  Forward Wesley Iwundu plays the most minutes and scores the most
points, but also commits the most turnovers.  Guard Justin Edwards dishes the most
assists and is their leading thief.  Forward D. J. Johnson blocks the most shots.
Forward Dean Wade is their leading rebounder.  Forward Stephen Hurt commits the most
personal fouls.  Guard Kamau Stokes was injured in the Mississippi game and is
doubtful for the Kansas game.  He is tied for the third-most minutes and is their
fourth leading scorer.  Not an insignificant element of the Wildcats' game.

The average of the various prognostications is 10.3 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 78, Kansas State 68.

Rock Chalk!
     
               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  9   #  6   #  9   #  8   # 13   +0.6   11.1   -0.64 +/- 0.41   -0.22 +/- 0.23
Kansas State   # 48   # 33   # 45   # 49   # 54   -0.1    7.6    0.00 +/- 0.28   +0.06 +/- 0.13
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  9  #  9   # 16   # 12   #  7  #  3    # 21    #  7   #  7   #  5   #  8
Kansas State   # 49  # 19   # 41   # 29   # 60  # 35    # 53    # 53   # 24   # 53   # 21
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         # 10   # 10   # 12   #  8   #  4   #  6   # 10   1.008   17-4     #     #   
Kansas State   # 52   # 51   # 46   # 60   # 51   # 48   # 50   0.754   13-8     #     #   
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  7  #  5    # 10  # 29    # 18  # 48    # 18  # 11    # 18  #  7    #  5  #  2
Kansas State   # 53  # 19    # 42  # 19    # 40  # 11    # 50  # 40    # 42  # 41    # 40  #  6

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 24-7:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #305 Northern Colorado          109  72   +31.96    +5.04
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State              73  79    -1.38    -4.62
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 54 UCLA                        92  73    +8.62   +10.38
NEUT   # 21 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +2.99    +4.01
HOME   #270 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +28.73    +4.27
HOME   #151 Harvard                     75  69   +20.51   -14.51
HOME   #301 Holy Cross                  92  59   +31.46    +1.54
HOME   # 77 Oregon State                82  67   +14.02    +0.98
HOME   #170 Montana                     88  46   +22.11   +19.89
AWAY   # 64 San Diego State             70  57    +6.49    +6.51
HOME   # 96 UC Irvine                   78  53   +15.92    +9.08
HOME   # 32 Baylor                     102  74    +8.02   +19.98
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma                   109 106    +2.09    +0.91
AWAY   # 56 Texas Tech                  69  59    +5.55    +4.45
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia               63  74    -4.54    -6.46
HOME   #125 TCU                         70  63   +18.64   -11.64
AWAY   # 65 Oklahoma State              67  86    +6.51   -25.51
HOME   # 33 Texas                       76  67    +8.22    +0.78
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                  72  85    -0.16   -12.84
HOME   # 23 Kentucky                    90  84    +6.48    -0.48
HOME   # 45 Kansas State                         +10.86             0.874
AWAY   #125 TCU                                  +12.04             0.880
HOME   #  3 West Virginia                         +2.06             0.575
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                              -4.51             0.317
HOME   # 65 Oklahoma State                       +13.11             0.882
AWAY   # 45 Kansas State                          +4.26             0.673
AWAY   # 32 Baylor                                +1.42             0.551
HOME   # 56 Texas Tech                           +12.15             0.912
AWAY   # 33 Texas                                 +1.62             0.558
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                            +6.44             0.740

Here is Kansas State's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #310 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     80  53   +25.15    +1.85
HOME   #124 Columbia                    81  71   +11.01    -1.01
HOME   #215 South Dakota                93  72   +17.83    +3.17
NEUT   #162 Missouri                    66  42   +10.40   +13.60
NEUT   #  7 North Carolina              70  80    -8.02    -1.98
HOME   #277 SC State                    68  66   +21.52   -19.52
AWAY   # 71 Georgia                     68  66    -0.51    +2.51
HOME   #336 Coppin State                83  58   +28.82    -3.82
AWAY   # 12 Texas A&M                   68  78    -9.91    -0.09
HOME   #156 Colorado State              61  56   +13.14    -8.14
HOME   #213 North Dakota                63  49   +17.72    -3.72
HOME   #223 Saint Louis                 75  47   +18.31    +9.69
HOME   #  3 West Virginia               83  87    -5.50    +1.50
AWAY   # 33 Texas                       57  60    -5.94    +2.94
AWAY   #  4 Oklahoma                    76  86   -12.07    +2.07
HOME   # 56 Texas Tech                  83  70    +4.59    +8.41
HOME   # 22 Iowa State                  63  76    -1.12   -11.88
AWAY   # 32 Baylor                      72  79    -6.14    -0.86
HOME   # 65 Oklahoma State              89  73    +5.55   +10.45
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia               55  70   -12.10    -2.90
HOME   #104 Mississippi                 69  64    +8.91    -3.91
AWAY   #  9 Kansas                               -10.86             0.126
HOME   #  4 Oklahoma                              -5.47             0.235
HOME   # 32 Baylor                                +0.46             0.519
AWAY   # 65 Oklahoma State                        -1.05             0.456
AWAY   #125 TCU                                   +4.48             0.701
HOME   #  9 Kansas                                -4.26             0.326
HOME   # 33 Texas                                 +0.66             0.528
AWAY   # 22 Iowa State                            -7.72             0.173
HOME   #125 TCU                                  +11.08             0.903
AWAY   # 56 Texas Tech                            -2.01             0.386