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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 projection, round 15
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8 months 4 weeks ago #32320
by asteroid
Init Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Rd 5 Rd 6 Rd 7 Rd 8 Rd 9 Rd 10
Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
# 1 Houston 14.753 14.923 13.906 13.102 13.291 13.395 13.891 14.032 14.157 13.223 13.167
# 12 Iowa State 10.283 9.500 10.640 11.064 10.363 11.068 11.222 11.568 11.539 11.155 11.780
# 15 Kansas 11.129 11.165 9.953 10.509 11.149 9.975 10.129 9.899 10.141 11.123 10.347
# 31 Texas Tech 8.828 10.113 10.523 10.532 10.116 10.926 10.955 11.724 11.279 10.376 10.130
# 25 TCU 8.897 8.838 9.434 10.428 10.101 9.485 9.699 10.539 10.935 9.956 9.970
# 14 Baylor 10.930 11.363 11.925 11.971 11.226 10.485 10.535 9.608 10.046 10.482 10.774
# 19 BYU 13.331 11.595 10.811 11.086 11.754 10.996 10.537 10.883 10.865 11.066 10.308
# 37 Oklahoma 9.775 10.625 10.049 9.582 9.673 10.451 9.153 8.438 9.338 8.485 9.244
# 36 Texas 8.957 7.615 8.460 7.481 6.422 7.099 8.313 8.013 7.835 8.802 8.185
# 69 Kansas State 6.225 7.348 8.108 7.872 8.624 8.740 8.583 8.349 7.542 6.881 7.698
# 45 Cincinnati 8.497 9.970 9.053 8.992 9.415 8.605 8.372 8.680 7.848 8.699 8.651
# 70 UCF 5.855 4.785 5.635 5.777 6.960 6.883 7.267 6.935 6.465 7.319 7.299
#100 Oklahoma State 4.861 4.635 4.385 3.978 3.409 3.237 2.968 3.292 3.086 3.656 3.667
#141 West Virginia 3.680 3.467 2.787 3.626 3.496 4.655 4.376 4.040 4.923 4.778 4.780
Rd 11 Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15
Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Conf. Pred.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Recrd Next Game Score
---- -------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ----- --------- -----
# 1 Houston 13.469 13.495 13.683 13.903 14.285 11 3 UC Tue 71-57
# 12 Iowa State 12.143 12.688 13.007 12.832 12.034 10 4 OU Wed 73-65
# 15 Kansas 10.683 9.932 10.644 10.628 11.018 9 5 BYU Tue 79-75
# 31 Texas Tech 10.375 10.873 10.868 11.175 10.526 8 6 UT Tue 75-71
# 25 TCU 9.722 9.777 10.308 10.029 10.423 8 6 BU Mon 78-77
# 14 Baylor 10.471 10.937 11.153 10.722 10.304 8 6 @TCU Mon 77-78
----- championship hopes on life support ---------------------
# 19 BYU 10.396 10.497 9.493 9.913 9.177 7 7 @KU Tue 75-78
# 37 Oklahoma 9.193 8.802 8.104 8.121 8.553 7 7 @ISU Wed 65-73
----- teams below have been eliminated mathematically --------
# 36 Texas 8.413 8.431 8.215 8.417 8.065 6 8 @TTU Tue 71-75
# 69 Kansas State 7.564 7.630 7.143 6.909 7.633 6 8 WVU Mon 73-63
# 45 Cincinnati 8.364 7.830 8.348 7.387 6.988 5 9 @UH Tue 57-71
# 70 UCF 7.063 6.950 6.351 5.573 6.218 5 9 @OSU Wed 69-69
#100 Oklahoma State 3.625 3.574 4.559 5.443 5.197 4 10 UCF Wed 69-69
#141 West Virginia 4.520 4.312 4.124 4.824 4.821 4 10 @KSU Mon 63-73
Massey took honors for best prognostications in Round 15, his second consecutive win and
fourth win of the season. Dunkel pulled up the rear once again, by a mile. Vegas retains
the season lead, by just a fraction of a point over Dolphin, with Dunkel easily in last place.
Four road wins were projected for Round 15, but the BYU win in Mnahattan didn't happen, nor
did the Texas Tech win in Orlando. No road wins are expected in Round 16.
Road wins (31 out of 98) Home losses RW-HL
-------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------
4 Houston BYU UT UC BU 0 Houston +4 UH
3 Baylor OSU UCF WVU 0 Iowa State +3 ISU
3 Cincinnati BYU TTU UCF 0 Kansas +2 KU
3 Iowa State TCU UT UC 1 Texas Tech UC +1 BU
3 Oklahoma UC KSU OSU 2 Baylor TCU UH +1 TCU
3 TCU OSU BU KSU 2 BYU UC UH +1 TTU
3 Texas UC OU TCU 2 Kansas State OU TCU 0 BYU
2 BYU UCF WVU 2 TCU ISU UT 0 OU
2 Kansas OSU OU 3 Oklahoma UT TTU KU -1 KSU
2 Texas Tech UT OU 3 UCF BYU BU UC -1 UT
1 Kansas State WVU 3 West Virginia KSU BYU BU -2 UC
1 Oklahoma State UC 4 Oklahoma State BU KU TCU OU -2 UCF
1 UCF UT 4 Texas TTU UCF UH ISU -3 OSU
0 West Virginia 5 Cincinnati UT OU UH ISU OSU -3 WVU
It has occurred to me that the inconsistency value can be somehwat misleading,
because it depends on how many total points you score. To use an extrene
example, a soccer team that scores 1 or 2 or 3 goals per game isn't going to
have an inconsistency of 10 points! Take two teams with identical inconsistencies,
the one that scores fewer total points will have a smaller inconsistency value. That
is exemplified by Houston in the Big 12. So, as an experiment, I have normalized
the inconistency values to a total score average of 150 points per game, and that
is shown in the second column, which is the column I have sorted on this time around.
TCU remains the most consistent team in the Big 12.
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- -----------------------------
BYU +3.56 TCU 7.40 7.30
Iowa State +3.16 Oklahoma State 8.27 8.64
Houston +2.93 Houston 8.26 9.51
Baylor +2.24 West Virginia 9.23 9.68
Cincinnati +1.44 Baylor 10.22 10.00
UCF +1.21 Cincinnati 9.81 10.30
TCU +1.12 Texas 10.45 10.89
Oklahoma +1.11 Texas Tech 10.64 11.01
Kansas +0.90 Oklahoma 10.66 11.15
Texas +0.56 Iowa State 11.30 12.03
Texas Tech +0.44 Kansas State 11.35 12.09
Kansas State +0.23 BYU 12.51 12.34
Oklahoma State -0.28 Kansas 12.04 12.48
West Virginia -1.20 UCF 11.70 12.65
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
West Virginia +0.22 +/- 0.23 Kansas State +0.10 +/- 0.23
Oklahoma State +0.20 +/- 0.20 West Virginia +0.03 +/- 0.22
Kansas State +0.19 +/- 0.28 Kansas +0.02 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech +0.14 +/- 0.27 TCU -0.07 +/- 0.12
UCF +0.10 +/- 0.31 Oklahoma -0.09 +/- 0.18
Texas +0.03 +/- 0.26 Texas Tech -0.12 +/- 0.22
TCU 0.00 +/- 0.19 Oklahoma State -0.13 +/- 0.14
Kansas -0.06 +/- 0.32 Cincinnati -0.14 +/- 0.19
Baylor -0.35 +/- 0.26 Texas -0.20 +/- 0.18
Houston -0.39 +/- 0.19 UCF -0.20 +/- 0.22
Cincinnati -0.40 +/- 0.23 Iowa State -0.43 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma -0.46 +/- 0.25 Houston -0.61 +/- 0.14
Iowa State -0.49 +/- 0.27 Baylor -0.63 +/- 0.15
BYU -0.98 +/- 0.25 BYU -0.67 +/- 0.19
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
BYU 82.30 Houston 56.56 Baylor 153.23 Houston +17.17
Baylor 81.34 Iowa State 63.44 TCU 152.07 Iowa State +13.96
TCU 80.94 UCF 67.27 BYU 152.11 BYU +12.48
Iowa State 77.41 Oklahoma 67.77 Texas 143.89 Baylor +9.44
Kansas 76.33 Kansas 68.40 Texas Tech 144.93 TCU +9.80
Oklahoma 75.64 Cincinnati 68.44 Kansas 144.73 Kansas +7.92
Texas Tech 75.51 Texas 69.07 Oklahoma State 143.52 Oklahoma +7.87
Texas 74.81 Texas Tech 69.42 Oklahoma 143.41 Texas Tech +6.09
Cincinnati 74.41 Kansas State 69.49 West Virginia 143.00 Cincinnati +5.96
Houston 73.73 BYU 69.81 Cincinnati 142.85 Texas +5.74
UCF 71.46 TCU 71.14 Iowa State 140.85 UCF +4.19
Oklahoma State 71.44 Baylor 71.89 Kansas State 140.81 Kansas State +1.83
Kansas State 71.32 Oklahoma State 72.07 UCF 138.73 Oklahoma State -0.63
West Virginia 67.94 West Virginia 75.06 Houston 130.30 West Virginia -7.11
Both Baylor and Kansas were at home, with Houston arguably being a stronger opponent
than Texas, so it comes as no surprise that Baylor leapfrogged Kansas in strength of
schedule. But with Kansas ending the regular season in Houston, that ought to be
enough to put the Jayhawks back on top.
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Baylor +11.37 ( 6)
Kansas +11.25 ( 7)
West Virginia +10.29 ( 14)
Kansas State +8.92 ( 30)
Houston +8.28 ( 40)
Texas +8.16 ( 42)
Texas Tech +7.93 ( 46)
Oklahoma State +7.28 ( 55)
Cincinnati +7.11 ( 60)
Oklahoma +6.89 ( 68)
Iowa State +6.83 ( 69)
TCU +6.82 ( 70)
BYU +6.73 ( 72)
UCF +6.39 ( 78)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, boulderhawk, Socalhawk, hoshi
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